Update again.....Kasich takes 2nd. Poll ARG NH, RCP reporting. NH Poll: Kasich Surges to 2nd Place.... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
what I wonder is how the DNC will change things once the Clinton's are no longer in the ballgame. They might as run full left to the Warren/Sanders end of the spectrum because their moderate bench will be about as thin as it gets
comparing to the December ARG poll it looks like more establishment support shifting between Bush, Kasich, and Rubio. Both Trump and Cruz gained a point. Rubio dropped 5 and Christie dropped 3, Bush dropped 1
Establishment will have to go with one of those 3. Or get behind Trump now. As mentioned. Rubio is the only one that bridges the Tea Party and the Conservatives.
Just read this article over at RCP which suggests that the RNC is accepting their fate and are going to fall in behind Trump http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/01/19/gop-establishment-leaning-toward-trump-over-cruz.html
Oh a lot of them are getting to stage seven The seven emotional stages of grief are usually understood to be shock or disbelief, denial, bargaining, guilt, anger, depression, and acceptance/hope.
Good lets get rid of Santorum, Paul, Huckabee, Carson, Fiorina and Christie in one fell swoop. I would say Bush.....but we know he has the money for the long game. Kasich could surge but I don't think it will win him NH. Then what does he do for SC after not even making a showing in Iowa.
Each of the two major parties has a wide range, in part because with only two parties there is really no other possibility. After all, each party has to attempt to appeal to over half of America. There are major differences within the parties, however. Within the Dem party we've seen the moderation and pragmatism of Clinton and the bigger ideas of Sanders, a big example being in approach to health care going forward. We've seen them discussing actual written plans. We've seen what things cost!! There is disagreement, but the discussion is at a practical level, recognizing the needs different constituencies. That's in significant contrast with the Republican party wherein the conflict is far more abstract and is argued on grounds that really have no direct connection to what America would do were they to become president. For many reasons, we are not going to ban Muslims, we aren't going to round up and deport 11m undocumented aliens. We aren't going to kill Obamacare when nobody has come even close to creating an alternative. None of these candidates has presented any new idea on ISIL. Those who hold seats in congress are not causing congress to write an authorization that differs from what we're doing right now. In fact, they sound like cooperation, compromise, diplomacy, etc., are the central problem both here and abroad - rather than recognizing them as the tools we have to solve problems.
This ARG poll with Kasich at 20% is a bit surprising and is probably on the high end of the error range, but it's something to watch. A Kasich-Rubio ticket would probably be the hardest ticket to beat. Kasich is a reasonable guy who's well liked in a state that the GOP desperately needs. He doesn't come with the baggage of the Bush name and he's remembered in Congress as the guy who helped balance the budget through a time of prosperity. The only attack the left might have is his work at Lehman, but that's hard to push when your candidate is Ms. Goldman Sachs.
I'd be shocked if Kasich even came close to hitting top 3 in NH. Not that it wouldn't be the first time a prediction of mine was wrong.
Not only that Kasich has received 6 endorsements from 6 NH Newspapers. He is very much in play for NH. Albeit a second or third. Question is.....would it be enough to get establishment to all jump in and back him.
Well CNN has Kasich at 6% in NH: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-trump-leads-cruz-climbs/ That 20% number might be an outlier.
RCP has it for NH: Trump 32.2, Kasich 12.3, Cruz 11.5, Rubio 10.8, Bush 8.3..... N.H. (CNN): Trump 34, Cruz 14, Rubio 10, Bush 10, Kasich/Christie/Paul 6.....snip~ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa For John Kasich, a new wind in New Hampshire Kasich has started performing better in New Hampshire, where he has staked the hopes of his presidential campaign. After he languished in the polls for much of the fall, several recent surveys have shown him in second place in the Granite State, behind billionaire Donald Trump. Whats unclear: How much better hes doing and how long his new momentum will last. A couple polls have shown him further back in the pack. At the least, Kasich has pulled even with establishment GOP candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. 'Bill Clinton' campaigns for Kasich? Kasichs rise has gotten attention from rivals. Bushs political action committee has reportedly mailed literature attacking Kasichs support of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare and his congressional vote in favor of the assault weapons ban, which he now says was ineffective. A man wearing a mask of former Democratic President Bill Clinton and a Kasich campaign sticker on his jacket visited at least three of Kasichs appearances this week, standing outside with a poster bearing a larger-than-life copy of a thank you note Clinton sent Kasich for his assault weapons vote. He wouldnt identify himself he kept insisting his name was Bill Clinton but said his effort wasnt paid for by any PAC......snip~ http://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...01/20/kasich-new-wind-new-hampshire/79074556/
way I see it a lot of the polls should "start once upon a time" these days. First it was Bush will overcome Trump..oops that did not happen. Next was Rubio will overcome Trump...well that did not work out either. Last hope of the establishment GOP is Kasich. So now we have 4 polls that have him between 12 and 20 and 2 that have him in single digits over at RCP to get that 12.3 and that average does not include Monmouth's poll yesterday that had him at 3 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/. What we are witnessing here is the death rattle of the establishment GOP movers and shakers For what it is worth here in South Carolina I have not seen a single Kasich TV spot
Kasich thru all his money in with NH. Picking up the 6 NH Newspaper endorsements has helped to give him a bump. But there is still plenty of time. So far Rubio hasn't lost Big Backers. Bush and Cruz has hit Kasich up over the assault weapon ban. Rubio went after him on Common Core and BO's Special Package.
Kind of a shame to see one of the potty trained republicans getting so little support. Perhaps if he appealed to the stupid elements that make up most of the republican party, he would have done better. He simply didn't froth at the mouth, grunt, and throw feces enough for the modern republican to pay attention to him.
Rubio's plan is to get up delegates and hold them for the Convention. Same with Bush. They have the money for the long game. That's their luck of the draw now. I don't know if he can bump himself up in NH tho.
at this point I expect Trump to pull a 50 state run. 49 minimum. Cruz will roll in second. Bush and Rubio cannot even pull second in Florida or here in SC where they are dumping tons of cash
There's actually a reasonable chance that Cruz takes IA and Rubio takes NH. That'd make me so happy - I don't want Trump to be the nominee, and that would be the best thing for preventing i5. I'm not a huge fan of Rubio, but I could vote for him before third party - couldn't say the same of Trump. Really, I'm the l I Berta Rian Republican who always gives libertarians crap for throwing away their vote but... with Truml, I get it. Trump v Hillary isn't really a lesser or two evils kind of vote.