On the Trump Campaign's lack of ground game

A long time ago, I wrote an extensive essay on how Ted Cruz's year long effort to build a ground game allowed him to win the Iowa caucus, and caught Donald Trump short.

He has set up offices and staff in that state a year before the caucusses, and had built an entire network of volunteers. In addition, he built a de facto flying squad of volunteers that could come in the state to phone bank, knock on doors and otherwise do the ground work of retail politics.

Finally, he also built one of the most sophisticated data mining operations in modern politics, one which called the Iowa Caucus almost to the vote, three days in advance.

Then Trump went on to win in New Hampshire, and, more importantly, in South Carolina, where the politics of white resentment has played a big role in GOP presidential politics for two decades.

I had to admit that I was wrong to believe that Cruz's well planned and sophisticated traditional retail politics would result in a string of victories for him in the SEC primaries and the second super Tuesday. One Trump supporter delighted in gloating over it too.

But now, the ground game issues is reasserting itself.

Reports of the Trump campaign laying people off, and firing staffers in primary states that have already voted suggest both a lack of willingness to spend the necessary money, and lack of will or understanding of what it takes to run a national Presidential campaign through to the fall.

Instead, the candidate indulged his ego by playing to the emotions of his nearly all white audiences, stoking their resentment, and sounding steadily more like a pseudo Facist thug than an American politican.'

He egged his audiences on, and they gave him he said he wanted; video of people punching, kicking and assaulting hecklers.

And still, he kept winning (albeit never getting even 50% of the vote anywhere).

Therein lies the rub.

Trump is the percieved winner because he got the most votes, but never a majority.

Donald Trump has always presented himself and his campaign as a new sort of camaign, leaner and smarter than all the old political operatives.

His campaign depended on "earned media", and his ability to dominate the TV screen and the blogosphere. Television and bloggers became Trump's willing accomplices in order to cash in on the ratings bonanza that Trump's act provided. Television and media understand that "news" in America has become a circus of infotainment. Give the mob a show, and they'll be glued to their screens. Trump knew it to.

But the "Trump show" was increasingly marred by violence (and, moreover the expectation of violence), and Trump's overtly authoritarian tone started to rattle people. Americans don't talk like this.

Trump knows that too, and he has essentially gone into hiding. Video of Trump at rallies is often old stock now, and you don't see any video of his more recent events (even the one in Queens which attracted 17,000 people, something that Trump would have insured got blasted out of every TV in the nation 60 days ago).

With the television gone, Trump's ratings have gone with it.

And along with that, his chances of getting the GOP nomination on the first ballot.

Which is where his lack of ground game has resurfaced as an issue.

Corey Lewendowski, like his boss, continued to cling to the notion that a shoestring campaign built on bluster, and "earned media" was all they really needed.

But as the prize seems to be slipping from Trump's hand, he has belatedly reached out to Paul Mannafort to come in and save the day.

But they're finding that Ted Cruz is already there.

Moreover, Trump STILL has no real campaign organization in most of the states taht have not voted yet. In California, he has no staff at all, and no campaign manager.

The story is New Jersey, where one of his senior staff just quit, is similar.

I believe that we are close to the point where we can start referring to this defective candidate and his circus of a campaign in the past tense (which would be good for all Americans).

And, in the end, it was his lack of a real campaign organization and his unwillingness to take the political process seriously and mount a proper ground game that did him in.

Television many have put him on top, but retail politics will take him out.

 

As your OP states, you already had to admit you were wrong. Is this thread a mulligan?

Admittedly, Trump hasn't had much of a ground game, but look who's ahead. Upcoming states are more favorable to Trump than Cruz so a ground game is supposed to overcome that?

Hey, if Trump hasn't gotten over 50% in a contest yet, perhaps you'll tell us who has?

Trump's plan is to win the nomination and then graft onto the already in place substantial GOP network. It's a bit of a gamble, but it's gotten him this far. Don't count him out.

 

I suppose it is, because I am increasingly convinced that my prediction will prove correct.

I never believed the Donald Trump would ever be President.

America does not elect people like him.

As for the upcoming states, your claim has little merit. New York is the only state that he will ever get above 50% in, and that's not assured. He is being shut out in the western caucus states, and moves are already afoot to keep delegates in states he already "won" from being seated.

The fact that he has no campaign organization in most of the upcoming states means he is defenseless against the Cruz campaign, and the GOP party apparatus.

The answer is everyone else. And everyone else is increasingly united to keep Trump off the ticket.

Actually, this is not true. Trump has never grafted himself onto any already substantial GOP network. Never.

And any candidate fool enough to think that they can simply win a primary and then expect the party (any party) to step up and do all the heavy lifting for him from here on, not only does not know what they're doing, but is doomed to failure. Especially when that candidate has spent most of the last year giving the "already substantial GOP network" the finger, in the most graphic terms.

Trump has earned every one of the substantial number of enemies he has managed to make in this campaign. The GOP does not want him to be the nominee, and will do no more than pay lip services to him if he does get it. He will have trouble raising money because the big donors and Wall Street know who he is and know better, and he's been telling the fools that show up at his rallies that he's a rich man financing his own campaign. They won't be interested in contributing to "lifestyles of the (wannabe) rich and famous".

I haven't written him off completely yet, but it's getting closer by the day. If he gets less than 50% in the New York primary, and those delegate get apportioned, his lift is near impossible.

He's already at the point where he needs to get 60% of the remaining delegates, a tall order for a man who has never broken 50% in any state.

 

It will be interesting to see how Trump's opponents are able to game out certain CDs to deny him delegates in NY.

 

So when Cruz wins he has a ground game? What happens when he loses?

 

The Trump campaign has nothing to worry about. Paul Manafort, the new delegate strategist, has a plan to get the necessary 1237.

 

He loses. Nobody has a better ground game than Hillary Clinton. Nobody. She and Bill don't miss a trick when it comes to running a campaign.

 

I'm not so sure he planned to win the nomination. I think he was doing some self-promotion.

The GOP donors have said that they will close their wallets is Trump is the nominee… including donating money to operate the convention. After maligning the donors and the establishment part of the party, I don't expect them to help him much. They don't want him to represent the Republican party and would rather lose the White House than help Trump win it. He bit the hand that feeds the general election donations, and he never planned to self-fund if he got past the primaries.

He'll have to find some other kinds of donors, and donors almost always come with some kind of quid pro quo. I can only imagine the expectations that will come from casino operators, real estate moguls, etc. I'm not sure he will keep lots of his supporters when he is just as guilty and beholden to donors as he criticized other candidates for being. He can't afford to fight Clinton's billion dollar war chest without donors. He's in a financial pickle if he gets the nomination, but like [MENTION=61356]TomFitz[/MENTION], I never expected him to get as far as he has. That being said, I still don't think America will elect him President, even if the Republican party has to make him their nominee.

 

I agree with all of that. I fully expected him to quit the race at some point, particularly if he could get in a room with some of these guys and get them to agree to finance his real estate deals or just pay him some walk away money.

Then it went to his head.

Of course, I never expected him to "self finance" his campaign. That was never in doubt to me. First of all, he's not worth nearly as much as he claims to be. Second, he's a real estate developer, and they NEVER spend their own money.

Good luck with him trying to con the rubes that have already written checks to Ben Carson's con men to write more checks to Trump.

This is the beginning of the end.

 

Trump just want the RNC to hand the nomination to him outright without him having to be bother to attend debates, town halls, campaigns or convention.

 

Of course the Clintons run a strong campaign but I am speaking of Cruz. If his ground game is all that why does he lose so much?

 

Hillary Clinton lost 8 out of the last 9 primaries, if that's a great game plan, I'd hate to see a bad game plan. if they ran all things being equal no pro Hillary wall street special interest super pacs, or fair corporate controlled news networks Bernie Sanders would easily defeat a wall street shill like Hillary Clinton. the American people have had it with things always being rigged and unfair.

 

Cruz. He received 69% of the vote in both Utah and Wyoming.

 

Big deal. No appreciable change in the delegate math.

If she loses NY, I might entertain a convo about her ground game.

Until then, all this "Hillary is in trouble" talk is just pathetic trolling. Period.

 

ill say it again ground game costs money. Lots of money. Trump was able to make it this far using free media, twitter, and most importantly no donors. The baggage of donors like what ted has just changes a candidate into the GOP version of hillary. I get that all the pundits must insist on candidates using donor money as its job security for them but i would rather money get out of politics.

Trump may lose but the risk is a trade off im willing to take when compared to just being outright purchased by the big banks like hillary.

 

Both targeted the same far right wing older white audience.

Trump spoke better Archie Bunker than Cruz does ,and understood that the real lynchpin of this audience is race, and white resentment. And he was willing to go farther to pander to that audience in louder and more obvious ways than anyone else.

 

America never had the opportunity to elect "a person like him". Well, at issue here is the definition of 'Authoritarianism" and what's needed for the United States going forward. I do in fact believe we need a strong hand. One that believes in freedom(as I do), but I believe in guided freedom. Guided Freedom as a principle is what has kept humanity grounded, even though humanity was loathe to admit it and always loathes to admit it.

In other words, a central authority grounded by principle has always stood the test of time. You can call it democracies, communism, etc, whatever. A government that has the support of its people is a strong government. If we go by my definition, Trump is not an authoritarian(though he'd like to act it I'm sure), because he doesn't have the support of his people.

Trump is a Trumper. He says things, he gets people pumped up. And hey, he finally voiced for the "silent majority" that while some Americans might like a poorus border, more attention paid to the third or fourth wave of people entering, rather than taxpaying middle class Americans, many other Americans do not like(and should not like) a government and a party that has put party over country.

But now it's time to organize for real. With a shot at 2020, 2024 and 2028(when I plan to run for POTUS if all goes well.). Over the next decade, our movement must grow intellectually, with sophistication and spirit. If we're serious about this, using this momentum, we'll take out the GOP and DEM establishments to Make America Great again.

Because both are the problem, neither are the solution.

 

Know what's really pathetic trolling? being a wall street Hillary shill, and ignoring reality, watch the Sanders supporters at the convention, they know first hand what a rigged DNC process they we're up against. that's if Hillary's not in cuffs by then.

 

Do you see any chance that the nominee could be someone other than Cruz or Trump. I mean any hope that after a few ballots, a compromise candidate Kasich or Ryan or someone on a white horse will carry a maiden away from the dungeon the Tea Party wachos have built brick by brick?

 

Ok, I haven't kept up as well as I might have.

Utah is a solid win for Cruz, but no real surprise given the way Romney has gone after Trump.

Wyoming. What can you say? A total of 971 votes cast. Win, lose or draw, Wyoming is as close to irrelevant as it gets. Nine whole delegates. While not 'nothing', isn't that like Guam territory?

 

Your vision has a term attached to it. Facism.

And your formula is a clear road to totalitarian government.

 

That has been Kasich's strategy all along.

A month ago, I would have said no. The big donors were, and still are, on the shelf. They passed on their opportunity to stop Trump when they had the chance. Yes, a lot of money did get spent. But it wasn't enough, and it wasn't any kind of concerted effort. So Trump outnumbered them 1 to 16 again, as he had in the primary debates.

Preibus was still making conciliatory noises, and Trump was beginning to get endorsements, albeit from the wackos.

But now the worms are turning, and there is a real focus on keeping Trump off the national ticket.

The issue is that Cruz is doing most of the heavy lifting. He's the one with the ground game infrastructure that can stack delegates and make sure his men are on all the important committees to teh Convention.

This is the problem for Kasich. He doesn't have the infrastructure to fight Cruz on this level. And the backroom boys are letting Cruz do all the heavy lifting. I think it will wind up coming down to what they used to call a "gavel to gavel" fight on the floor, in which it becomes obvious that neither Trump nor Cruz can get enough delegates.

(at this point, all us political junkies rub their hands together in glee!)

The party does not want Trump to be the candidate.

The problem is that they don't want Cruz either.



If Cruz suceeded in stealing the convention away from the party the way Trump succeeded in hijacking the primary elections the way he has, than Cruz will be the candidate.

It may be the best way for the GOP to purge itself. Cruz will go down to a defeat the likes of which we haven't seen since Al Landon got crushed by FDR in 1936.

And that may have to be the only way to get the poison out of the system once and for all.

 

Every government is a totalitarian government(as I've outlined). The only question is: Is the totalitarianism acceptable? I hold it is, when the quality of living is high. If I run a successful, highly efficient government you're not going to say squat. Why? You're too busy enjoying daily life in a prosperous USA to give a crap.

 

No, most governments are not totalitarian. You really should read something, and stop making this nonsense up and attaching words you obviously don't know the proper meaning of to them.

You would have made a great Nazi, since they said exactly the same thing.

 

Nah, many people support Trump including democrats and independents. Try again.