Fake Polls? How CNN And ABC Are Fudging The Numbers To Tank Trump’s Favorability

An interesting piece on stacking the polls with Democrats. Not a real surprise this has been going on for quite a while and many of those polls have been posted here by the far left. Should CNN ABC and anyone else who puts out polls like this have an * next to them so the public knows they are manipulating the numbers?


Two polls released Tuesday — one from ABC and a second from CNN — tout Donald Trump as being the most unfavorable incoming president in modern history — yet on second look, the data is clearly boosted by the pollers’ decision to oversample Democrats.

According to Gallup, 28 percent of Americans identify themselves as a Republican, while 25 percent identify as a Democrat.

Despite this information, eight more percent of participants in both the ABC and CNN polls identified as Democrats, leading to an 11 point swing in partisanship breakdown off the national average.

ABC’s poll sampled 1,005 adults across the nation. However, partisan breakdown shows that only 23 percent of participants identified as Republican.


Conversely, 31 percent of participants identified as Democrats and 37 percent as independent, while nine percent did not answer.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/17/f...ging-the-numbers-to-tank-trumps-favorability/

 

Revenge threads are bad.

1. This article is over 1 year old. Back when the far right bloggers and tabloids (Rush, Daily*, Breitbart, etc) were blogging about this conspiracy. Not "Current Events". Expect it to be taken down or moved. It would be moved to the Beliefs or Conspiracy section since it is pure opinion and nonsense...

2. Daily Caller(lol) Editorial. Cites no professionals on the matter. Doesn't know simple polling terms. Trash trash trash. I'm going to cite many professionals on the matter later this post.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-caller/

3. Over sampling is normal. Weighting is normal. (Although what is occurring with those polls might also be my #4 point)

Oversampling is used to study small groups, not bias poll results
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-to-study-small-groups-not-bias-poll-results/

Weighting corrects for oversampling
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ll-results/ft-16-10-25_oversamplingweighting/



http://abcnews.go.com/US/PollVault/abc-news-polling-methodology-standards/story?id=145373

4. Or they aren't even doing it on purpose. Many simply don't even oversample or weight. Party Identification and Political Affiliation shift during a polling cycle. It's more of an attitude. Many pollsters don't even pick their sample's political parties.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/24/word-about-polling.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/25/politics/donald-trump-polls-rigged-oversampling-democrats/index.html

(Look what you did, you were so wrong that CNN and FOX actually agreed on something!)

5. Further Reading,

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/25/politics/donald-trump-polls-rigged-oversampling-democrats/index.html

"Pollsters just saw this[your theory] and rolled our eyes," said Dan Judy, a Republican pollster for North Star Opinion Research.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...-polling-conspiracy-that-doesnt-exist/505211/

But oversampling? It’s benign. The fact that a post detailing a media oversampling conspiracy has gotten more than 1 million pageviews says something about Trump supporters’ fears of losing the election, but even more about America’s statistical illiteracy.

 

Good post Guavaball, even though dated, it is still relevant that people know how easy it is for pollsters to manipulate poll numbers.

VanCleef has obviously spent a lot of time reading the pollster's versions of why they got the numbers wrong from the very pollsters that claimed Clinton would "easily win" the 2016 election.

I have a background in econometrics (advanced statistics) and oversampling isn't normal. It's an excuse for not doing their job properly, or more likely a way to snow the public with a phony poll.

You might remember this. Right after Comey gave his speech on July 5th, 2016, letting Clinton off the hook, Clinton's numbers waned until suddenly they shot back up again toward the end of July for no apparent reason other than Comey letting Clinton off the hook. The truth is, Reuters announced they were changing their methodology to polling. This was also cover for other pollsters to do the same, and they did, all falling in line together. Clinton was a lock for winning the election according to polls, if dems would nominate her at the end of July. And they did.

An honest pollster, Pat Caddell (D), was infuriated about it stating, "This comes as close as I have ever seen to cooking the results,” said the legendary pollster and political consultant. “I suppose you can get away with it in polling because there are no laws. But, if this was accounting, they would put them in jail.”

The polls all moved together making a huge 17-point swing as Trump was previously ahead to falling way below Clinton in poll results across the board. As the election nears, pollsters ALWAYS start gradually moving toward greater accuracy to preserve their reputation. Pollsters are always compared to election results with their LAST POLLING NUMBERS.

Now with Trump's polling numbers, there is no way to verify poll results since no Trump election is near.

These pollsters do this for a living and can't have people thinking they are "cooking the books" so they had to come up with some excuses as to why they were so far off the mark during the election year. And some people are gullible enough to believe the pollsters' excuses.

Being that I have a background in econometrics and advanced statistics, I don't trust ANY of THEM.

Steve

 

Polls against President Trump now, are as believable as the polls in the fall of 2016 that said Hillary was going to win in a landslide. They are fake news and just plain lies ginned up by the MSM.

 

How does fudging the polls have anything to do with "tanking" Trump's favorability? His favorability is what it is, polls notwithstanding.
If anything the fudging of the polls might keep Dem voters from voting since they won't think it necessary. So who cares what CNN is
doing, which I doubt anyway.

 

The oft-cited misrepresentation of the 2016 presidential polls is fraudulent, of course.

They showed a rapid closing of the gap in the final days of the campaign. The final average projection was off by 1.1%, closer than in 2012. Clinton's once considerable lead was shown to evaporate, but it fits the agenda of some to persist in lying about it - "If we can pretend polling was inaccurate once, we can pretend that all polls we don't like must be inaccurate."

That meme, like many issued to the ideological parrots by their media masters, is not reflective of reality.

"Fake polls" are the broad consensus of all public surveys that confirm Trump's enduring unpopularity from the perspective of a hardcore Trump cultist.

The determinant of all things that they bray are "Fake!" is not whether those indices comport with realty and other objective assessments of it, but whether they are pleasing or unpleasing to their messiah.

​

When one notes the consistent disapprobation of their Trump shown by a plethora of public surveys, P-Grabber's fanatical followers cannot offer a conflicting aggregate of polls that remotely suggest he is popular, so they resort to their irrational exuberance and mindlessly mewl

"FAKE!"
​

Of course, their irrational, emotional outburst has no impact upon the empirical data. Only a dispassionate, analytical discrediting of all the congruent findings could achieve that and, given their conspicuous inability to meet that challenge, it's much easier to parrot "FAKE!"

 

Total BS.

A rant from Daily Baller, trying to make something out of nothing to peddle the illusion that Trump has a "silent majority"., a popular notion among his angry white man base.

Trump has yet to ever get 50.000001% of the vote in a contested election, and has yet to get 50.000001% support in any poll.

But trying to manufacture the illusion of a conspiracy by misleading the audience is what sites like Daily Baller do.

And right wingers rerun them, even though they're not relevant at all.

Of course, citing Pat Caddell as a Democrat says volumes about honesty! The guy works for Cambridge Analytica, and is one of the fake Democrats that Fox uses to BS its audience into thinking they present "both sides"

 

Polls are intended to drive public opinion, not to measure it.

 

Do you actually think anyone of consequence actually reads your drivel? I didn't after you stated the Daily Caller. I didn't quote them. My information is from several sources including an education in econometrics.

Your closed mind will continue to betray you when the NEXT election surprises you, again and again.

LOL,
Steve

 

You have an education and are a Trump supporter? I have encountered this by Republicans who vote the party no matter what.
Where were you educated? I too am a Republican and cannot support a con-man.

 

It's none of your business where I was educated because you obviously want to bash whatever I say.

You can think whatever you want about Trump supporters, but you should realize that the lying liberal media has been pounding out lies since the beginning of the 2016 election about Trump and his supporters, in a wasted effort to help dems.

If you would take the time to learn critical thinking skills then what I said would be very apparent to you. Dems have been relying on the MSM and polls to shape how you think and the people have had enough of it.

Steve

 

1. You are not valid citation. Pew Research is valid citation.

2. The national polls did not get it wrong. They were correct, and within a 1.2% error margin.

 

Everyone that is here decrying the accuracy of polling has had their turn screeching the praises of polls that are favorable toward Trump.

The polls are accurate. It's your skepticism of polling that is inconsistent.

 

Read it again below, carefully this time. Pollsters that blew the Clinton estimates as high as a 17 point spread during the campaign are ALSO NOT VALID CITATIONS for their failures of accuracy DURING THE ELECTION YEAR. They failed and anything said after the fact are simply excuses to preserve their reputation.

Of course they gradually moved toward accuracy as the election came to a close BECAUSE they have to protect their reputation in the future. That ALSO shows they knew the polls previously were bogus.

I can document much more but I know I'm wasting my time with such close-minded people such as yourself. I would prefer laughing at you people when dems continue losing elections in the future, no matter what the polls tell you. LOL

Steve

 

1. I need citation that oversampling and weighting does not work and results in inaccurate readings. From research, statistics, or polling sites. I have only seen the opposite.

2. The 2016 National Election polls were on average off by 1.2%. And correct. The poll I used, which started this revenge thread, was off by 2% and predicted the accurate winner for public sentiment. It's a widely debunked claim that the national polls were wrong.

3. They were also close and correct for 2012, 2008, 2004, etc.

 

How ALT RIGHT fake polls are trying to increase Trump's lack of favorability is what the OP means.

 

As taught in higher education, estimates of samples are required for accurate polling. OVERSAMPLING is lazy and improper technique, so then they tell you they weight the samples to offset their mistakes.

They've ALWAYS been close toward the end of election years because they have a reputation to preserve. HOWEVER, during the election year, pollsters don't have to be accurate because there is no full VOTING population election taking place to refute their BS.

It is as simple as them trying to brainwash you and apparently it works on you!

Steve

 

That is just it. You said a lot of mish-mosh while bragging about your education in relation to the subject under discussion as if
you were more educated on the subject matter than the other blogger. Just wondered where you got that education. If
you are so educated then why are you acting like the uninformed and uneducated typical Trump base?