3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report Just In...

Ooops! The election cycle modelers predict a presidential win for Trump at the end of 2020 and do so for two reasons; first, the economy is roaring and nobody but the hard core Left credit Barack Obama with that whatsoever and, second, people have to be really unhappy with the incumbent president to replace him -- and despite an incredible amount of political propaganda painting Trump as EVIL, polling indicates that the average voter isn't buying into that leftist messaging either.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/445668-3-modelers-predict-trump-reelection

Now for the Left, what should be really disturbing about this prediction is that none of the three modelers are noted for being Right of Center in their politics and one of whom actually worked for Barack Obama.

Now I also predict a Trump re-election and for much of the same reasons that those three different chaps, but I kick in another reason as well; messaging. Trump has a drumbeat of messages for this nation whereas the clown car assembly of leftists vying for the Dem Party nomination are all running on the chant of "I am a more radical leftist than my opponent and I am not EVIL Trump."

Yeah . . . good luck with that.

 

Count on Democrats in the house voting for impeachment the day after the 2020 election when they lose the Presidential election and control of the House.

 

If that turns out to be the case, it will mark the end of the United States as a signficant world power.

Trump has ceded global leadership to the Russians and the Chinese.

He has divided our allies, and encouraged our enemies.

He has real vision at all, other than looking good to the Fox Noise audience. And this is an audience that thinks that tabloids are news, and reality TV is real.

Trump is not responsibility for the economy. Nothing he did changed any policy coming into his Presidency, other than a tax cut enacted a little over a year and a half ago. This exploded the deficit (something I predicted that the next GOP President would do ten years ago).

Trump is distrusted and reviled throughout the world. He is clearly not comfortable, nor particularly welcome in the corridors of world power.

And incompetent , adolescent, corrupt little man.

He has disgraced his office and his nation.

 

I really should invest in therapeutic Playdough as the price for it for traumatized leftists is going to shoot through the roof after Trump wins re-election.

 

And the national economy is in the trash . . . no . . . wait . . . that was under Obamanomics. Oh and ISIS is still trashing Iraq . . . no . . . wait . . . that was under Obama's foreign policy. Well . . . Trump is always bad mouthing the United States of America and race-agitating all the damn time . . . no . . . wait . . . that, too, was strictly Barack Obama. But, yes, that Trump is one EVIL dude. Oh wait . . . no . . . that was . . . .

 

If Democrats believed their own propaganda they would be impeaching trump already. If they wait till after 2020, they will look even dumber then they do now.

 

Interestingly, my opinions of Trump are exactly the opposite of yours.

 

The economy has been on the exact same unchanging upward trend since 2010. Nothing trump has done has affected any economic trend.

 

True, but then again if looking dumb really bothered the Dem Party leadership then they would not do or say the things that they typically do in public.

 

Precisely so. Consider that research has proven that Trump receives on average from media outlets around 90% or more negative coverage. That should mean that his polling numbers are in the toilet and never rise above that level and yet consistently he polls near to what Obama did when Obama got pretty much 90% or more positive coverage during his presidency. This means that the average citizen is not actually swallowing all that hate-filled and doomsday prophecy leftist propaganda as the truth; but are in fact tending to think for themselves instead. That is not good news for the political Left in regards to the 2020 presidential election cycle.

 

I would not be so confident champ. Many models and experts also were sure that Hillary would win by a landslide last time around. It is way too early for anyone to claim to know who will win 18 months from now. 18 months is an eternity in politics. So many variables.

1)These congressional and state investigations could turn up something that could cause the GOP to dump Trump before the convention.

2) The economy could take a downturn and cost Trump Independents and Rustbelt working people in Pa., Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida.

3) The Democrats could nominate a charismatic young candidate, perhaps a War Veteran who emerges and that connects with voters from many different perspectives.

4) Trump’s negatives are even higher than HCs in 2016. Clintons negatives were driven up by exhaustive congressional investigations and a constant 24/7/365 pounding by media hacks, AM radio jocks and whacky right wing websites. Trumps negatives could go even higher by election time as the Democrat Congress are likely to keep investigating and the MSM is likely to keeppounding away at him much the same as Fox, AM Jocks and idiot based websites did to Clinton.

Anything can happen at this point. However being the incumbent, Trump is the early favorite. So was Bush 1 and Carter....How did that work out? My prediction is that Trump will probably not be impeached but the investigations will continue to reveal more sleaze by him and his cohorts. The Dems nominate a candidate with no real negatives and will focus on Health Care, Infrastructure and economic policy and will win by 10,000.000 popular votes and win the electoral college by about the same as Trump did in 2016.

 

Hahahaha! Good one. Oh wait . . . were you actually serious?

In no particular order of response consider the negative press in regards to Trump and that with everything the leftist-allied Mainstream Media can do 24/7/365 to trash Trump in the eyes of this nation it clearly isn't working as again and again his popularity keeps popping up to rival that of Barack Obama's at similar points in their first term as president and that's despite that fact that that very same leftist loyal MSM religiously presented Barack Obama as the entire world's holy and sacred Political Messiah. So we can forget about all that typical leftist propaganda making much of a difference in regards to the outcome of the 2020 presidential cycle as clearly the average citizen is NOT drinking that Kool-aid.

The national economy is roaring and Trump keeps winning the hearts of the average citizen regarding immigration and taxes and everything else that actually matters to people who are NOT wild eyed leftists who want to plug up cow butts in order to save the Earth.

So forth and so on. The economy? It's roaring. The nation's infrastructure? All Trump has to do is point out that Obama did NOTHING for eight years while HOWLING about shovel ready jobs and then point out that it is the leftist dominated House of Representatives dragging their feet for political reasons regarding meaningful infrastructure repairs and development. Health Care? All he has to do is point out that it's the job of both houses of Congress to address that issue and that it's only his job to sign or veto the resulting bill and that again it's the Leftist dominated House of Representatives jacking the nation around over health care. So forth and so on.

 

In May of 2007, the economy was roaring too champ and by the time Cheney/Bush skulkedout of town it was swirling down the toilet. However I am happy that the Trumpists are already making reservations for the Inaguration ball. Yeah baby, it’s in the bag, lol

As I clearly pointed out in my previous posts, a lot can happen between now and Election Day next year. You can keep blowing all your bluster out your shorts till the cows come home but it doesn’t mean a thing. I will just sit back and see how everything shakes out. Especially after what happened last cycle. At this point, Trump was about 1000-1 and he pulled it out. Anything can happen. This time instead of the MSM playing right into his hands, he will have them up his ass.

 

Only the Kool-aid drinkers on the Left actually believe that Obama had anything approaching a good national economy over his eight years as president and they are the core of the Dem Party and so they can be dismissed since they are going to vote Left no matter who the DNC has already decided to give the party's nomination to. The economy took off with a roar after Trump became president and now even even leftist media outlets are admitting that Trump Did This . . . and not Obama.

As for anything can happen; well yes -- otherwise Hillary Clinton would have been president with the vast bulk of the MSM doing their very best to follow DNC orders to GIVE her the presidency. But that didn't work.

So, yes, anything can happen and those three different modelers would not deny that reality. What they are individually coming to the same conclusion, however, is that by far the current election cycle model heavily favors Trump. This isn't false polling numbers compiled by companies known to donate heavily to the DNC but coldly scientific modeling. I thought that the average leftist WORSHIPED science. Well here's their chance to pay homage.

 

Bla bla bla.....We shall see.

 

The United States of America was a world power, largely due to circumstances but none of which created by the modern Democratic Party. In fact, the democratic party is largely responsible for Trump due to failed social programs that began as early as LBJ's administration. The corrosion of political effectiveness has led to Donald Trump.

You wanna know what's disgraced the nation? "resist". The whining five year olds who occupy far more of this country than I previously thought when I left the democratic party.

 

Cool.

Are these the same modelers who predicted "Hillary in a Landslide"?

Cool.

 

. . . .

 

No doubt he will win. Booming economy! America is back to leading on the world stage! It’s fantastic stuff!!

 

Yea they were saying stuff like that before he got elected, The economy would crash WW3 blah blah blah None of that happened. So go jump in a lake

 

You are probably correct, trump somehow hasn’t managed to crash the economy and it is largely following trend lines with a few outliers. If the economy dips however he is in trouble. The 2020 elections will mark one single popular vote wins by Republicans in 28 years (two if trump wins the PV) and potentially the only president in the history of the US to have a negative overall approval rating his entire term in office.

I know republicans don’t care about what how the country votes as long as they “win” but is interesting information for anyone on the fence.

 

Personally I have never understood fence sitter mentality. Is the nation better off in regards to the national economy and foreign policy results under Trump than they were under Obama? Yes. Is that trend likely to continue under Trump as opposed to the incredibly radical slate of leftists vying for the presidential nomination? Yes. Thus I shall hold my nose and vote for Trump. I don't actually have to like the guy to comprehend that he is currently the best fellow for the job. But then again, I have never been a fence sitter.

 

I can wait until Election Night.

If Trump comes out on top after all of the votes are counted, then I will put some stock in "models".

After the Epic FAIL of people like Silver, Sabato, Et.al in 2016, I don't think anyone should put any faith in predictive models.

 

You mean the epic fail of poling companies who pretty much were openly working for the political interests of the DNC at the time? Well, yes, obviously.