3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report Just In...

Bottom line:

1) The ONLY Poll that counts is Election Night.

2) After 2016's Epic FAIL--People like Silver, Sabato, and any other (and all other) "Modelers" have ZERO Credibility.

 

Not good at all.

IIRC, the default probability of an incumbent POTUS being re elected is around 70% as a baseline.

 

The real takeaway here is that top dems will do everything they can to lie/cheat/steal in 2020.

They don't think they have another option.

 

Yep, and it's still unlikely to do them any real good. Their best bet is to crash the economy as an October Surprise as they managed to do for Obama back in 2008.

 

That is a good point.

Of course, since Trump is a unique case, you can throw out "default probablity".

 

So, in other words:

You are recommending that the Dems follow Trump's 2016 Game Plan.

Cool.

 

What else can they do except take a swing at America?

Anything for power. Thats dems problem.

 

AJ, all your bases are belong to Trump.

 

Would this also include people who swore Hilla winning in a landslide? Maybe even making bets on the outcome - y'know, as a random non-specific example?

What about the model this guy discussed?

What would you say about his credibility?

 

Funny how first the neocons embraced "global leadership" and now liberals embrace "global leadership." Both object to an America first policy.

What disgraced the office was Obama running around the world bowing down to foreign leaders in a manner that recalled the famous actor Stepin Fetchit.

 

The article notes the following:

"The model correctly predicting an electoral victory for Trump in 2016, but overestimated his popular vote share by about 5.5 points, which Rattner attributed to Trump's personal unfavorables."

Therein is the issue. Of course an incumbent president during a good economy would be expected to win. The models reflect what a typical President should expect. Trump is not typical. I'm not predicting a loss, but I expect a pretty close race that could go either way - a closeness due to Trump's "unique" style.

 

Actually, he's recommending your own game plan:

Seriously, deconstructing your posts - just too easy.

 

Maybe he should stop saying and doing stupid **** then or trying to launch war on "the media"... Im sure he would love it if they just obeyed like good dogs and turned all into state run tv

 

Perhaps if I repeat the gist of this s-l-o-w-l-y . . . These independent political scientists are individually predicting a Trump win DESPITE the vast bulk of the MSM essentially and blatantly working for the DNC.

 

I seriously wonder if any of the Dem candidates are watching the European elections and deciding that an open borders, globalist platform might not be a winner?

 

Not sure.

But, running against an IDIOT like Trump in 2020 has to bring them hope.

Old Bone Spurs isn't the sharpest tool in the shed.

 

Well now........he beat the dim Dems once.......coming out of nowhere. This time he will be an incumbent with a raging economy. Moreover, three studies just predicted he would win. Good luck with open borders, globalization, reparations, Medicare for All, and paying off student loans for those who majored in Transgender Studies and used the money to go on Spring Break............

 

I'm not buying their modeling. These sort of models are the same ones that predicted Manhattan would be flooded by the year 2000 due to global warming. They are assuming that a variable like economic performance has the same ability to move votes now that it did 20 or more years ago. Meanwhile we just had a presidential election in which only one of the candidates ran on economics. Hillary ran on glass ceiling, identity politics, and how bad the other guys were. The only people still moved by economic news are the votes Trump was fighting for in 2016; working class whites. Everyone else seems to be in a tribe that isn't moving based on the economy, and the few people remaining who can be moved by that are a shrinking portion of the electorate.

 

A great many of them are doing just that but they know that if they express such sentiments then the radicals now in pretty much full control of the Dem Party will kick them out of office or power.

 

Wow, you got the mainstream message didn't ya. Maybe he should have bowed and apologized to our allies and sent pallets of cash to our enemies. Seems to me that China, Russia, N. Korea and Iran all gained more ground during Obama's tenure than Trump's. Don't worry though, someday the left will regain the white house and I'm pretty sure Hillary's reset button will still be there.

 

Right now, I look at it differently. Granted, we have a good economy and the people give Trump credit for that. Right now 52.4 approve, 42.7% disapprove.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html

But we have a huge disconnect when it comes to overall job performance or approval. 42.8% approve of Trump's over all job performance, 53.4% do not.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Have you ever asked yourself why such a huge disparity? Normally, there are only a couple of points difference between the economy numbers and the overall job performance numbers. Never a 10 point gap. No president has won reelection with an overall job performance of below 50%. Ford was at 45%, Carter at 37%, Bush I at 34%. Trump is currently at 43%. That doesn't mean he can't improve, with a year and a half to go, he can.

But I doubt that he will. Trump has never risen above 45% and no lower than 38%. He's been pretty consistent at around 42/43%. I'm sure if the election was held today, Trump would lose. Of course it isn't. One must remember first off the Republican Party is the smaller of the two major parties. This means whomever is the GOP candidate must win the independent vote or lose the election. Independents have soured on Trump.

36% of all independents want Trump to run for reelection, 45% do not. Question 73.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dl1xj5lsd9/econTabReport.pdf

Leaving the somewhat's out of it, they're kind of wishy washy and change their minds all the time. History has shown usually people don't vote for someone they dislike. 12% of independents like Trump a lot. They'll vote for him. But 33% dislike Trump a lot, they won't. Question 65.

Then let's forget about overall job approval and approval on the economy. How do independents view Trump? Again leaving the wishy washy somewhat favorable/unfavorable out of it. 24% of independents have a very favorable view of Trump, very positive. 38% have a very unfavorable view of Trump, very negative. Question 55A.

Why with a good economy which with most presidents equates to an equal high over all job performance. Why doesn't the good economy influence how people, especially independents view Trump? What's your take on that? I know mine and have stated it numerous times. What's yours?

 

I don't think we can be entirely sure of Trump's reelection. The economy is good which is a plus for Trump. He is also an incumbent which is another advantage. A far-left or unpopular democrat might run against him which could also be helpful. If Biden does win the primary, he might become unpopular and give Trump a shot at winning. The Mueller probe has ended without any evidence of collusion which is great. Trump might even strike a trade deal with China.

However there are some problems. Trump has never really been able to get his approval to even 45% even with a good economy. There are still ongoing obstruction of justice and tax return investigations which might damage him. If Trump runs against Biden who is popular, victory will be difficult. Economists are predicting an economic slowdown by 2020 and there might even be a recession by the election. Healthcare costs keep rising and Trump has no real solution to the problem. Wage growth is decent but still below what would be expected from a booming economy. Many people can't keep up with the rising cost of housing, healthcare, and student loans and find it hard to pay bills even in a good economy. At the same time Trump's tax cut and his economy has mostly helped the wealthy more than the working class. Trump is running massive trillion dollar deficits and that might be a problem in the election. He tend to lie a lot and do a lot of name calling which had turned a lot of people off. There is massive turnover in the Trump administration. Trump is also doing nothing about climate change. The fact is that the majority of the population disagree with Trump and the right on healthcare, climate change, gun control, immigration, taxes on the wealthy, and on his character.

 

Ssssssh . . . I am messing with the minds of our leftists. This is exactly the sort of thing that THEY believe in, and in this case it's what will gnaw at what passes for their souls. I'm bad that way.

 

Could you please refrain from taking by my quotes from OTHER Threads and using them in epically failed attempts to troll?

Not only is it against the Rules, but it is Blatant Harassment.(See Rule #4).

I get it. You are thoroughly obsessed with me.

You have bookmarked and categorized my every keystroke at this forum (and sorted it like a Concordance to the Bible), and (don't get me wrong) I am used to Hero Worship (and I do find it flattering).

But, could you please refrain from your trolling practice of taking my posts from other threads to harass me?

Thanks in advance.

Your Idol,

PF's "A.J." .

Now, back on topic, as far as "Election Models", (after 2016) I don't put much stock in them.

 

His posts were reduced in a spectacular manner.