My Prediction: Trump will resign.

Though I am not completely certain about the timing, I am pretty sure about the events. I think Trump will resign. Pence will become President, and will pardon Trump.

A long loooong time ago (i.e. last week) I thought this would happen right after the elections. And assuming Trump was not re-elected (never underestimate Putin). But things have changed. If Republicans wish to salvage ... anything, they will have to act fast. Because they are going to need to get a candidate in place. Maybe not one who will win the elections, but one that will at least draw Republicans to the polls to vote for Congress.

Democrats could precipitate this.... tomorrow. By impeaching Pence. After all, he is also involved in this extortion against Ukraine. Trump just threw him under the bus. So they would need him to resign first, and place somebody who is crooked enough to pardon Trump, but not so crooked that they are involved in Trump's crimes.... Not an easy needle to thread.

 

Never happen. Dirty Donnie’s ego is too huge and his arrogance too great. He and his deplorables will try and run out the clock in hopes of a second term. Republicans will go along to try and stay in power. They have little choice: if he/they lose, every dirty deed he/they perpetrated and legitimized will be used against them after they fall.

It will be ugly. Then, Donnie will be handed over to state prosecutors. And it will get even uglier.

 

Can I look into this faulty crystal ball? I think if I were you I would get my money back.

 

I agree. His ego would never permit it; he'd try to throw the entire country under the bus if it means saving his presidency; he's already thrown Pompeo and Pence under the bus, who's next??

 

Yes. I see your point. His arrogance is definitely a huge factor. But I think his cowardice to stay out of jail will overcome even his pride.

 

In addition to the impeachment scenario there is this, endangering the one thing Trump has going for him, the economy.

Yesterday, the Dow lost 344 points. Why? According to the experts, because the manufacturing index (PMI) pointed to contraction in September for a second straight month.

Today the Dow lost 494 points lowering it to 26,079. That is 360 points below where it was on Jan. 29, 2018. Our economy is making negative progress.

Trump blamed the market selloff on the impeachment inquiry.

He is partly right. One day after Robert Mueller appeared before Congress to provide testimony regarding Russian intervention in our 2016 election on his behalf, Trump called the president of Ukraine to ask him to intervene in our 2020 election on his behalf! Subsequent to that illegal act, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi launched an impeachment inquiry. This is having an effect on Wall Street where, ordinarily, Republicans Presidents are adored.

The other factor is the loss of manufacturing jobs. A year and a half ago, when Trump imposed his harsh tariffs on steel, aluminum and Chinese goods, I warned that tariffs are a tax paid by Americans on goods Americans buy. Tariffs cause rising prices which causes less demand which, in turn, causes loss of jobs. That is Econ 101.

Still another factor is the ongoing trade war with China begun by Trump.

(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes suffered their sharpest one-day declines in nearly six weeks on Wednesday after employment and manufacturing data suggested that the U.S.-China trade war is taking an increasing toll on the U.S. economy.

 

True.

Trump probably will refuse to leave (WHEN he loses in 2020) and will wait to be dragged kicking and screaming by the New POTUS' Secret Service after the swearing in on 1/20/21.

 

SDNY is having wet dreams over this

They REALLY want to see justice done on sooooooo many issues

 

Unless he can spin it so it is an EEFBM.

 

Investors are nervous that if Trump feels he is close to being removed, who knows what the crazy guy might do....

 

Yes. They'd love to get to him when he's out of office. But it wouldn't happen if Pence pardons him. We'd have to see what state charges could come up. Pence can't pardon him for those.

 

My guess is if you had any success at guessing, you probably wouldn’t be a permanent poster on this forum. You would have a job, money, insurance, investments, hobbies, etc.

 

The moment (literally) Trump is elected, the stock market goes through the roof and never looks back. The day the Dems decide to plunge the country into a political nightmare and declare impeachment, the market sells off as if there is no tomorrow. Lest me forget that the Dems are on record wishing for a recession and/or market collapse.

It's a no-brainer really, blinded by hatred dems has given Trump a get out of jail card on economy, any market/economic problem going forward will from now on be blamed on the impeachment and Democrats and rightly so.

 

I understood many were state charges?

Certainly the issues around his “charity” seem to be

 

Come on, he guessed Trump would be frog-marched by Mueller, he guessed Stormy had Trump's number, he guessed Kavanaugh was a rapist, he guessed the Covington kids were racists.... He is very very very good at guessing, he must be getting guessing tips from Maddow and Fredo Cuomo LOL

 

Oh, my bad. You’re absolutely right about him guessing wrong.

 

Yes. But I believe the charity case has already been adjudicated. I don't know if there are related cases. But there are plenty of sexual misconduct cases that are awaiting him. And who knows how many financial crimes which would not be revealed until he is unable to use his power to suppress them.

 

Near as I can work out it is still grinding through the system

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Trump_Foundation

There was so much and so blatant that it will take years

 

On today, his 968th day in office, Trump has a has a 43% approval rating, equal to the average of all Presidents on that day of their Presidency, 3 points higher than Obama.

If you think half the GOP Senate will flip to convict you've got another thing coming.

 

Where did you get that stat?

 

Your figure is 10 months out of date.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

On day 968:

Trump: 43%
Obama: 40%
Bush: 54%
Clinton: 49%
All Presidents: 43%

I am convinced the approval hawking is done in bad faith, given Trump's approval is smack on the historical average, and a fair chunk of the admired world leaders of the Trump critics are doing worse than him:

Macron: 33% (-10)
Merkel: 52% (+9)
Juncker: 9 in 10 EU citizens don't know him, wouldn't matter if they did as he is unelected
Trudeau: 32% (-11)
Ardern: 41% (-2)
Corbyn: 16% (-27)

A Sydney Morning Herald article on Ardern's decline in approval ran with the title "Jacinta Ardern's Popularity Drop Natural for Government Tackling the Big Issues"

Bad faith.

 

Gallup is always a little higher than the others

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

 

1. I have been using Gallup for over a decade, including when I was on the left, without issue or complaint from either side.

2. Please provide evidence that they favor conservatives over other polls.

3. This doesn't change my conclusion. If what you say is true he is only 1.8% above Obama on the same day and 1.2% below the average, hardly shocking figures.

4. I take great pride in not poll picking, so I use RCP when they have the data.

5. In short, I find it kind of petty to make the comment you did. Unless you can justify it, of course. At least my first shot at polling data wasn't 10 months old from one of the more Progressive pollsters (Pew).

 

If the Democrats win over the White House in 2020, stocks will plunge into no mans land.

Banks and investors know what is ahead with the Democrat party agenda.

 

Democrats did the same thing over the RussiaGate Obama started Coup on trump, this is a replay of their first failure.

This is what we heard after the first month of trumps presidency from democrats

He wont be potus 6 months
He will be impeached
He will resign
He will be imprisoned.

Trump will not resign