Corona Virus Update

And here's where the social factor comes into play: If it's effective(Let's use April 20th as a collective date for reassessing.) that's absolutely wonderful. And more people will feel compelled to comply if it's effective. Here's however what no one has dared to address: What if it doesn't?

What if, like the proverbial cat chasing its own tail, this thing doesn't work? How much longer do they think citizens will put up with this? If the advice is not to go to the hospital unless you're critically ill, that shouldn't change if we decide to go about our lives.

 

If you dont know your type you are not a Vet . Blood type is on dog tags. Mine is B.

 

If no one complies, we'll have 2.3 Million deaths in the United States. We may eventually have that many anyway, but they are trying to slow down the rate of infection so that we spread the cases out over time and don't overwhelm the health system all at one time.

Italy has fewer than 3 hospital beds per 1000 people. So does the U.S. We may be better prepared to do make-shift operations. Our government is talking about MASH-type units.

Here, the number of cases do not decrease, but get spread out because of people staying away from other people for a short time period.

 

The idea of flattening the curve is working. From what I see, hear, and read, most people are following suggestions to social distance, wash hands, and stay home mostly. It also looks like most new cases are clustered mostly in the larger cities like New York. In Arkansas, we had no new cases yesterday and only 22 statewide so far. Obviously it's easier to stay away from others outside of cities, but I think we will be okay as long as we continue with these measures.

 

Only 57% of the US population knows their own blood type.

I've known I'm O-positive since I was a kid, but darned if I can remember how I know. I *think* mom told me just before I donated blood in high school but it might have been earlier.

 

It is not deadlier than the seasonal flu.

6,500 cases with 100 deaths is nothing to be afraid of.

 

Our choice to overreact to a flu virus says nothing about the severity (or in this case, the lack of severity) of the flu virus.

We have resistance to it. If we had no resistance to it, then we'd all be dying. People with well working immune systems are doing just fine, experiencing mild to no symptoms. The antibodies within our bodies are flagging down these antigens, just like they do with any other antigen. The white cells within our bodies are destroying these antigens, just like they do with any other antigen. Learn how the immune system works.

 

Says gfm715. Follow his advice at your own (or more likely your parents/grand parents) peril.

 

If the number of cases and the amount of deaths were somehow static, you'd be right.

But of course, you are ****ING WRONG.

 

What is this math that you do?

 

It is impossible to know whether the ideas are working. The theory works, but we won't know that the measures are working until several weeks after the fact.

 

Clearly you are not paying attention to the fatality rate and the rate of spread.

 

I suggest paying attention to the models put forth by experts that attempt to predict where this virus will go based on a host of different assumptions and then I try to do everything in my power to ensure that we track closer to the best case scenarios.

The CDC currently puts that best case scenario at around 200,000 dead Americans.

 

They're saying that it causes permanent lung damage even in mild cases.

 

A doubling of cases about every 3 days. Try it.

 

Along with more testing = more positives.

 

Do it with deaths then.

 

Yes, but that's a good thing.

Knowing the extent of your enemy is a critical step when it comes to fighting your enemy.

 

All questions on the efficacy of testing answered:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...far-lower-than-in-china-or-the-us/ar-BB10OtGr

 

From 2 days ago:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ban-airports-stores-schools-close/5032701002/

Besides that I personally have a background in Microbiology, immunology, and virology, minored in statistics, and took classes in epidemiology, so it is not like I only need MSNBC and USA Today to get the point across, though they highlight important aspects.

 

Please provide a link for this because I can't find the CDC having a model that shows that but would like to see it.

 

Worst case scenario, CDC first :https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html

Current real data:

https://www.coronaviruschart.com/




Some methodology:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615360/cdc-cmu-forecasts-coronavirus-spread/




Other researcher's projections:

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/diseases-medicine/coronavirus-prediction-models-11022020/

 

However, it is important to note that exponential models are most accurate in early days of infection spread and then they are more weighted estimates, depending upon input parameters. It could get better or worse.

 

The link you included from the CDC also provides the best case scenario of 200,000, although that gets lost in the headline regarding the worst case scenario.

 

Yes, but sometimes it is better to include multiple scenarios.