Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

These maps are interesting, more so for the geographic representation of which areas of the country are relatively well-equipped or poorly-equipped to deal with a serious pandemic. Keeping in mind that Dr. Birx said that the testing numbers indicate 1 in 5000 are infected today in most of the U.S. and 1 in 700 in New York City (no where close to the 20% depicted at the starting point here).

I'm noting that the states which are most equipped are the least densely populated and therefore have the least risk for massive community spread. This indicates to me that shutting down the entire country is not necessary, but that shutting down cities and states which would have their hospitals overwhelmed very quickly makes sense.



https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

New York City only has 2,000 ventilators. The federal government is sending 400 more. That's a 20% increase which Cuomo said should get them through this week and into next week. If the New York shelter in place doesn't work and the infection rate continues completely unchecked, Cuomo said they will need 15,000 ventilators by May. That is, of course, the worst case scenario, but NYC is going to need more than the 2,400. Things are going to get really bad in that city before they get better.

Hope for a 2-week peak in their numbers (or less).

 

2020-03-024, shortly before 16:00 GMT +1, interim numbers. Spain has recorded +385 new deaths today and will likely revise the numbers up.
In the USA, it's only the middle of the morning and already we have +2,540 new cases, +35 dead and a total of 588 dead.
I wrote this morning that in the run of the day, we would easily go over 400,000 COVID-19 cases.

We are almost there right now and there are 8-9 more hours in the day, depending on GMT time zone.




-Stat

 

Ding-ding! Deri just won the €66.000 question.

At the end of the day, it's all about personal responsibility.

 

So sad, what can be done to help Spain::

​

 

Under normal conditions, it wouldn't be practical, efficient or even the best decision to have two or three times as many hospital beds, or masks, or enormous stockpiles of ventilators and other supplies than have been needed on average over several decades to deal with smaller epidemics. Everything was working "fine".

No country in the world could have expected or really prepared for this. Everyone is doing the best they can. Prayers to the people of the countries and states which are being hit hardest.

So, what do we do in the future? It still doesn't make any sense to stockpile tons of medical supplies if a pandemic like this hits once every century. It does make sense if one hits every few years. No one can predict the future.

These are sad days.

 

At the beginning of every natural disaster movie, there is a scientist being ignored by politicians.

We can learn from this and take it seriously when the entire medical community is screaming FIRE. Had we started this self-isolation when the warnings started, we may have been done with it by now. The Diamond Princess was a huge head's up.

What is happening in Spain is horrifying. My heart goes out.

 

~ Yes you make a good point ...

 

The virus is just so new and spreading so quickly right now.

Perhaps if we had years of data, like the flu, it would be possible to make such a prediction about the probability of contracting the virus. But now? No way.

 

This is here, now, real-life. My neighbor, who lives no more than 40 meters away from my place, has two teenage kids. I've known this neighbor since I moved to this place circa 10 years ago, he's a good guy. His son is 21, his daughter, 18.

Both thought that COVID-19 was a joke and 10 days ago, they went out with friends to a COVID-party, where teenagers drank a lot of beer and spat on each other.

My neighbor called me about a half-hour ago and told me that both of his kids are now are now in the hospital, both have contracted COVID-19. My neighbor doesn't think his son is going to make it. Like I said, the boy is only 21....

Today is a very sad day in my neighborhood.

 

**** man. That's brutal.

 

This is a horrifying story. Best of luck to your friends. Our 21-year old was taking it "sorta" seriously, but not enough. We put a boot on his neck Friday and told him next time he leaves, it's permanent until this ban lifts. He's been home, since.

Spring breakers came down here (Miami,) and proudly declared that they didn't care if they got sick. They were drinking and hugging and kissing .... sigh.

 

This makes the suggestion of routine testing sound incredibly smart. Make sure people are healthy before going back into the work force, and to have periodic tests to assure that the healthy population is indeed healthy.

 

Sometimes, I think that natural selection is real....

 

My condolences to you and to your neighbor. Unfortunately for kids, this is going to grow them up real fast. Like, really fast. Sometimes you can't have the goodies in life, sometimes you've got to wait and bite your tongue. It's not like I'm super old either(I'm 28.) but just living without abandon it's not a bad way to live per se, but it's a bad way to live now.

I'll be brutally honest: If I were 14-21, I don't think I could do it either. At 28 though, and more conscious of living I'm definitely hunkered down.

 

Where did the big dying happen today?

Italy: 743 new dead
Spain: 488 new dead
France: 240 new dead
Iran: 122 new dead
USA: 114 new dead
UK: 87 new dead
The Netherlands: 63 new dead
Belgium: 34 new dead
Germany: 33 new dead

 

On a somewhat positive note, the raw growth rate is slowing back down a bit.
Yet on an absolutely devastating note, only 35,000 people(25%) recovered if we exclude China according to your stats.

 

~ And now it does seem it will be sooner ...

 

It's a dilemma.
From the Iceland random sample 50% of the people that tested positive didn't know they had it.
And from the Ventena Italy test even after testing 100% some came in later and tested positive.

 

Kids will always think they are invulnerable.

 

~ I am beginning to lean towards the idea of isolating the elderly and infirm/compromised population. The rest of us can live dangerously. ( with mask of desired )

 

PM Narendra Modi has just announced that all of India (all 1.34 billion citizens) is going on a three week lockdown, effective tomorrow:



India has only slightly less population than China.

 

3 US sailors on board the USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for COVID-19 while out to sea:

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...heodore-roosevelt-test-positive-for-covid-19/

These are the first cases of positive testing while out on the high seas and they come on the heels of:

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/mar/22/seven-sailors-on-san-diego-based-ships-test/

-and-

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/23/naval-academy-midshipmen-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

The US military is not immune to the COVID-19 virus. No military is.

 

Cruise ships are incubators-hadn’t thought about naval vessels.

 

The bodies of the dead in Madrid are being temporarily kept at a large skating-rink until the military can pick them up and take them to a crematorium.

This is what a pandemic looks like.