Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

See post #740. You can find that Germany's mortality rates are slowly trending more poorly as time goes on, and # of deaths per day goes up. It is just my opinion, but this is probably due to Germany performing much more extensive testing at an earlier stage of the outbreak than a Spain or an Italy. The total number of dead may be very similar across all 3 countries when this is all said and done.

The main positive, if you can call it that, is this young man likely is not dealing with overcrowding at this point since Germany appears to be at an earlier stage of the outbreak. But from the sounds of it, he is likely in critical condition.

For now, the best we can say is may Ad-shem be with him.

 

~ Exactly. China is an evil empire - perhaps even the new Hitler. The U.S. is actually at war with China, but not with bombs and missiles. We are fighting an economic and technology war with the Far East Empire. As we witness many American politicians are afraid to point out China's harm to the U.S. Hopefully this will soon change.

 

That was what I thought but a German (living in the US) claimed this is not so. He seems to believe most of the deaths came from some specific incidents - one I think a skiing trip. He did though think that they were very good at tracing the contacts of these incidents. I do not know whether he is right or whether it is what you say and was my original position. They certainly have a very low number of deaths compared to everyone else except South Korea who took a much more responsible position from the outset.

That being said I do hear that Germany has excellent Medical Services. They apparently had 4 times the number of respirators to the UK when it got started and even have as many masks as they need but yes, such a large number of patients all at one time would defeat any health service so I think probably the German I was speaking to was wrong. We all need more testing and possibly Germany has been very good at tracing contacts which is another thing we all need to do to give us more time for a vaccine and/ or other advances in medical care to be made.

Spain's rate would seem to have been due to encouraging Festivals to go on, expecting them not to affect the people celebrating. End numbers will be a mixture of the quality of health services and the actions taken.

There is no positive but I do not think he will die. I think he will be the first of his age if he does - that is if the video I was watching today is correct....but like I said long term damage to the lungs is a possibility. Unfortunately there is not a get out of jail free card.

Like I said I agree with you that Germany's numbers must be due to general testing. I have heard nothing of their services being overwhelmed which would be the case if they had so many needing treatment. London Drs are saying they will not be able to cope by next week and we are later in getting started than mainland Europe. They are though building temporary hospitals to cope with the expected overload and are going to encourage those who they think unlikely to make it to stay at home.....

 

True. I am going from a video today which said his age range had nil deaths. I also heard of a 12 year old being in intensive care today. I think that is a first...and yes it does appear people are likely to be worse affected if they have a strong contact with the virus which spitting would probably do. Then if they were the only people who were affected - no news on the others, possibly that family has particular genetic problems. It is unlikely he will die but never say never.

This is very true and your country is one of the worse having no one serious or critical and yet the next day having a large number of deaths The UK has taken to saying they have 20 serious/critical all the time. Possibly it is hard to keep up with all the Statistics due to the continuous flow and how busy people are.

Yes that is true and many of them believing they are immune to serious problems do not think or care that they could well be infected and passing it on to others. This is a virus that encourages community responsibility.

 

To be accurate, Iran does NOT report on this category either way. It is an important category which should be reported, but if the choice is reporting the numbers and reporting them very low for whatever reason, and not reporting them at all, I would prefer the latter.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...6522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

There's been talk about the different strains and possible mutations, but according to the WP, there hasn't been much substantial difference in the strains(and the good news about that is that they're expecting it to be a chicken pox-like vaccine instead of a flu situation.)

 

While this would go against my a priori assumptions, as I honestly don't think the 'health care system' in Germany or South Korea can be so much better than elsewhere, I should mention that the mortality rate in Germany -- even in closed cases -- has declined as the number of closed cases as increased. It is now merely 5%. In closed cases, the mortality rates for Spain and Italy remains very high (around 50%). And while the sample from the US is still relatively small, the mortality rate for the US in closed cases seems even worse.

 

As I have said I think the reason Germany probably has so many testing positive is due to a large amount of testing. I have been noticing a rise in German mortality.

With South Korea it is not to do particularly with their medical services although it has been thought their issuing of the anti malarial drug may also have helped. It has though been more to do with their approach to the virus. They did all the necessary things. Borders shut, isolation of areas infected, contact tracing, massive testing, everyone wearing masks and all the things I am forgetting. Because they acted immediately using all the strategies they had gained from what happened in China, they do not need to have a lockdown. Their extra numbers will also be due to their testing - though there has been a slight raise in deaths recently to what there was before if my memory serves me well. All of the countries around China which were hit first acted in this way and they all have been able to keep the virus at bay , certainly for now.

 

There isn't a two way to deal with the issue. You either declare it or not. Iran does not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I get that you are saying you prefer Iran's way of putting in nothing to Britain's way of putting in 20, presumably because you prefer what Iran does but neither of them is giving any indication of the numbers of serious/critical which is what you were complaining about.

 

I have also mentioned Iran doesn't report it. But that allows me to at least look passed Iran when I want to understand the relationship or mortality of critically ill or severe cases. But last week, for several days, you had Germany report 0% (2 cases constantly), whereas the deaths they were reporting were more than 2 people each day. That kind of made it even more difficult to figure out how many 'critically ill' people end up dying as opposed to recovering. The same was true for the US figures until recently.

As an aside, while Iran does NOT report on this category (I wish it would), now and then, in interviews and other press briefings, there are occasional references to the mortality of the virus for those who are hospitalized and become ill. The last time I heard a percentage on this issue mentioned in Iran, the percentage was around 20% (1 in 5) of those requiring hospitalization for care dying from the virus. After I heard that number, I was particularly interested in cross-referencing the figure with the experience of other countries and didn't get far with it given the fact that those actually reporting on the issue, appeared to not be giving the stats enough attention (either weren't updating them or were simply misreporting them).

 

The mortality rate I am referring to is not based on the mortality rate of the virus determined by dividing deaths by overall confirmed cases, but the mortality in closed/concluded cases. That can also be affected by greater testing, but I should point out that in this category, the mortality rates in Germany are actually declining rapidly. They used to be very poor (but in a very small, almost irrelevant sized, sample) but have now declined from well over 50% to just 5%.

 

I missed you mentioning Iran. Sorry for doing so when you already had. In China about half of those who were serious/critical and went to hospital died. Obviously the survival rate will depend on the kind of medical care available. There is concern that in Africa most in this position may die due to not having available hospital care.

 

Ordering a national lockdown means that the figures currently being reported for India are inaccurate. Furthermore ENFORCING a lockdown in such a densely populated nation is going to be well nigh impossible. Mumbai and Delhi are more than twice the size of NYC and we already know that is going to be a monumental task to enforce.

 

Just to be clear: Iceland is not testing everyone, but rater, has offered to test every single resident (regardless whether citizen or visitor), but this does not mean that everyone is going to take the test. It's - at least for now - not mandatory.

 

Nobody does. Nobody can without literally testing every single person within that country.

I don't think people realize how many millions upon millions of people are asymptomatic right now. The damage is already done, via plane, train and boat travel across the planet right up to the emergency measures that started roughly 12 days ago in many parts of the world.

 

The theory has already, mit respect, been debunked. An intensive study of the genome has already proven that the virus is not man-made.

Even FOX, which has rarely met a conspiracy theory it did not love, has debunked this:

https://www.foxnews.com/science/the-coronavirus-did-not-escape-from-a-lab-heres-how-we-know

 

From the data above the USA is less than 2000 ACTIVE Cases behind Italy. I am hoping that the lockdown in NYC works but that might be more difficult given how far along the disease has already come in that area. They are estimating needing 15,000 ventilators and they have less than 20% of that number. What happened in the Lombardy region looks imminent in NYC. On top of that I have a friend that I have known for decades who lives in Manhattan. A week ago she told us about going to a party with some friends. It is not just the young who fail to grasp the seriousness of this Pandemic.

 

YEPP. I concur 100% with you on this. This is why I have been harping for days on end that Russia (146 million), India (1.33 Billion or 1,380 million, nearly 10 times as many people as Russia itself), Pakistan (221 million), Turkey (84.3 million), Egypt (102.3 million), Brasil (212.6 million) and Indonesia (274 million) are lying about COVID-19. If you add up the populations of those countries, that's 2.42 billion out of 7.8 billion, or 31% of the world's population that is not being accurately reported, if at all.

 

I've checked in on this. The rise is due to people who have been in the hospitals for 3 weeks or more, generally not people who caught symptoms and then died 3-4 days later. Yes, some of them are in that category, but a good number are people whom the Germans have been working furiously to save.

No one really knows why, for some reason, in proportion to it's population and also in proportion to the number of officially reported COVID-19 cases (Germans are THE world-pros when it comes to accurate papwerwork, I don't doubt their numbers even for a second), the mortality is considerably lower here. It's a mystery at current. It could however, very well be that a day will come when just a ton of people who have been in German hospitals for 4 weeks or more will die in quick succession, because when the virus sits in the body that long and multiplies without end and causes internal organ damage all over, it's then just a matter of running out the clock.

 

I'm not real sure what to say about this. Surely, you are entitled to your opinion, but let's not forget that China just went on shutdown for a huge part of it's population for 2 months and also took a massive economic hit. Also, China is now sending quality medical help elsewhere.

I'm no friend of communism. I personally hate communism to the core, but I submit to you that this thread is not the right thread for the train of thought that you presented.

Why not open a thread of your own to espouse those ideas and then I will gladly respond in much fuller detail. In order?

(*cough, cough*)

 

Good morning, PFers,

We ended last night with 421,069 COVID-19 cases. This is how today, Wednesday, March 25th, 2020 (exactly 9 months until Christmas!), 10:00 GMT +1, begins:



Per nation:



Overnight, Pakistan joined the "thousand club". It is the 29th nation to do so. Far more people live in India, which is as of today on complete national lockdown, and yet, India is claiming only 562 cases, which is, of course, ridiculous.

I highlighted a number of smaller nations with (currently) smaller numbers, but notice what a high percentage of the numbers is the number of cases just today. For instance, Oman is reporting only 99 cases, but 15 of them are reported as new cases just today (15.2%). With a 15% growth rate every day for just 5 days, then Oman's numbers will double to 200, then 5 days later to 400, then 5 days later to 800 and in 3 weeks from now, with at least 1,600, Oman will join the "thousand club", in spite of the fact that right now, it is closer to the bottom of the list than the top. The point I am making is: the exponential growth is most everywhere to be seen, only, not all nations are testing as aggressively as others.


And in comparison all the way back to 2020-02-027



Assuming just an 11% growth rate over yesterday (this is a conservative figure), then we are looking at at least 471,379 cases by the end of the day and will have jumped almost 100,000 cases over just two days ago.

If we average the growth rate in deaths over the last three days, then the average = 13.08%.

if the number of deaths reported by the end of the day today is a growth rate of 13.08% over yesterday, then we will have at least 2,460 new deaths today, bringing the grand total to at least 21,262 deaths worldwide. This is simple yet very, very sad math.

And there is no guarantee that the growth rate (11% of total cases, 13% of deaths) will remain at this level. As you can see, they have been generally rising. Also, one of the 5-7 nations that are probably lying about their COVID-19 totals may finally publish real numbers and then all of a sudden the growth rate will shoot through the roof.

-Stat

 

South Afrika is going into national lockdown today.

 

I anxiously await Iran doing what Iranian president Rouhani is belatedly saying it might, These measures should have been taken last week, but better a week late than more.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200325-iran-president-warns-of-tough-new-measures-against-coronavirus
Iran president warns of tough new measures against coronavirus

 

Even the mayor of Moscow is saying that Russia is lying over that nation's COVID-19 numbers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...917ca8-6d00-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html

 

Oh well, at least when we have reduced lung function from Covid we can order a new set from China, no waiting time, fresh from a political prisoner.