Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Some very positive results for the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin has been reported by Didier Raoult in France today. Also the New England Journal of Medicine reports that factoring in a large number of those infected but showing “no” symptoms the mortality rate is likely below 1%. German data show this - mortality rate of 0.5%. Data from Iceland also indicates a very low mortality rate. Also looking forward to the data from LSU medical on their study using hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in New Orleans.

Infectious disease experts Dr. Stephen Smith and Ames’s Adalja continue to achieve positive results with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.

 

German mortality rate is 0.5%.

 

They don't need funding, they need an ass-kicking(AKA: Motivation.) How many dollars does it take to do those scientific tests?

 

Right.... but just so you know: our correspondent AFM has a degree of ideological blindness which results in his ignoring the real world - except perhaps when considering the raw numbers of this pandemic -

eg, mention 'socialism' and he responds, Pavlov-dog like, with " = 100 million dead"; discuss policies of Sanders or AOC, and he responds "they are fools" …..hence my observations re the revelation of his "gated community".

 

That’s hilarious. ^^^

 

Careful, you are straying from the OP: but since you ask, it takes considerable post-tertiary intellectual effort, which could in reality be funded by the IMF, at no cost to you..…..

 

The mortality rate will be very similar to that of the common flu as is the case in Germany. Meanwhile good results continue to come in on chloand azithromycin. Dr. Vladimir Zolenko has added zinc sulphate to the mix (recommended by my doctor) and is seeing very good results based on 669 patients.

 

Happy to give you a chuckle, but others might see the problem.....

 

Phew!

 

and Germany has been doing mass testing and has it seems the best health services in the world.

 

WE-THE-SHEEPLE

I seriously doubt that knowing the death-numbers nowadays is in any way a necessity for survival. Yes, it fascinates us to watch them mount. And scares-the-hell-out as well!

What is necessary is what anyone today as an individual can do - because no country on earth (even China) saw this coming. Despite the fact that the SARS epidemic (2002/4) in China took 8000 lives!

I am personally aghast at the fact that such could happen, and this time around the world waited to see the consequences YET AGAIN in China. When China at of the end of December was trying to muzzle the doctor who (taken sick himself and ultimately died) was trying to warn fellow Chinese of the illness! I am sure he knew full-well the consequences of the plague 18-years earlier in Guangdong!

(And for your enlightenment, see the map here of the countries that had deaths in that precedent plague! Surprise, surprise! The US had deaths!)

Between January and February and the first half of March this year, Europe was looking aghast at the rising initial deaths in Wuhan (and even at home). And there were no preventive masks anywhere in Europe to be found to offer the population! (I'm still waiting for mine in the boonies of France!)

There is no excuse whatsoever for what has happened either in the US or Europe! We were warned eighteen-years ago by the same country that produced a killer-plague yet again. We should have taken note much earlier, but we-the-sheeple did nothing* ... !

*What should we have done? Bang on the doors in both Chambers of Congress and get the ball rolling politically last December!

 

The "worldometer" site has a new category, namely deaths per million of population. At this point, the highest to lowest rates of death per million between different countries has been as follows (top 10):

1- San Marina -- 619 deaths per million
2- Italy -- 151
3- Spain -- 110
4- Andora -- 39
5- Netherlands -- 32
6- France - 31
7- Iran - 28
8- Switzerland - 27
9- Belgium - 25
10- Luxembourg - 24

In this category, the US has 5 deaths per million and Germany has 4 deaths per million so far. However, the operative term is "so far", as countries who have more recently been showing increasing number of deaths will see their numbers in this category rise even more significantly overtime. My sense is that sometime next week or thereabouts, the US will record around 1,000+ new deaths -- and its total deaths will exceed 5,000 by then, with those numbers thereafter climbing quickly to reach around 15,000-20,000 in May. These totals will then show a much slower pace of increase due to the combination of "herd immunity" and rising temperatures.

 

The only reason we did not "wake up earlier" is that nobody in LaLaLand on the Potomac (either in Congress or the Offal-Office) gave a damn!

Donald Dork, who gets flustered when real challenges face him, een denied at first the seriousness of what was happening.

And he'll be up for reelection this year without the slightest concern for his professional incompetence.

To be sure, to be sure, to be sure ... !

 

You've made a good point. The number of total deaths per country is often impressive but NOT THAT RELEVANT. (Except to those of the families that died.)

What is key to watch is the percentage of total population that is, first, afflicted and then the percentage of deaths. Because the latter figure indicates the key-turning-point when the percentage of deaths begins to diminish rather than increase.

Methinks ...

 

They've had that for a few days now. It's an important statistic and one that will only go up for each country (or stabilise, when there are no more deaths from the virus).

For me, one of the interesting statistics is the bar graph of new cases / new deaths. If you go onto the Worldometer website then click on an individual country, you can scroll down and see a bar graph of new cases / new deaths. That gives an indication of whether the virus is still spreading (and killing) exponentially, flattened off or is dropping. I have clicked on a few of the worst-affected countries and the only "good" news I can see is that Italy seems to have levelled off in terms of new cases per day, and Switzerland seems to be dropping in terms of new cases per day. Although it may be a bit too early to tell for Switzerland.

South Korea is really impressive in that regard.

 

I think both are important in their own way. But when you are in the earlier stages of an epidemic, the main focus should be on the direction and rate of increase and not as much on either 'total deaths' nor, certainly, the ratio of the population affected. That would give people a misleading sense of things.

 

Good morning, PFers,

last night, when I went to bed in Germany, we ended the day with 593,389 COVID-19 cases.

Here is how we are starting the day on Saturday, March 28th, 2020 at shortly after 09:00, GMT +1 (it took me a while to write this thread):



As you all can see, we are easily going to jump over 600,000 COVID-19 cases today, and very early in the day, at that. This will mean that we will have stayed in the 500,000 cases range for less than 36 hours.

Here just the top part of the nations list. Worldmeters has added something new that may be helpful to you:



At the extreme right of the table, they have added the category "1st case". That helps to build a quick mental picture of how much time has elapsed since the first case in the respective countries.

While we slept, the USA added another +130 cases and unfortunately, another +8 deaths, bringing the total for the USA to 104,256 confirmed cases, 1,704 deaths (1.63% death rate, currently lower than the world average) and 2,525 recovered (2.42%, well under the world average). I submit to you that since the explosion of cases, treatments and deaths is just starting, these comparative statistics to the world values are relatively meaningless and the longer the crisis continues, the more the statistics across the world will become more and more similar to each other. So, I wouldn't put too much stock on what is 'less' or 'more' right now.

There are some very startling things to see just on the top of the nations chart:

-First, little itty-bitty Switzerland, geographically isolated from the world, with a population of only 8.65 million people (pretty much exactly the same population as Virginia in the USA), has recorded 12,928 cases. That is, when you gauge it against other, far larger nations, a huge number of infected. Switzerland is very aggressively testing, as soon as it was discovered that there was a COVID-19 case in one of the smallest, hardest to reach villages (one with no 2-lane road leading up to it), also the very highest village in Switzerland. It doesn't get much more rural than that. Germany has 10 times the population as Switzerland, and yet, the number of deaths are not far apart from each other (Germany: 351 / Switzerland: 231)

-Second, one of the nations I complained about for lying about it's COVID-19 numbers, Turkey (84.4 million residents), has suddenly jumped over the last 5 days to 5,698 cases and will surely explode well over 10,000 cases in this coming week. As I wrote just two days ago, once nations cross over the 5,000 mark, it's almost as if a dam suddenly broke.

-Third, Israel has recorded a +14% increase in cases from 03/26 to 03/27. That is above the world's average. Now, Israel, with Tel Aviv as very large and modern city, is definitely a little more cosmopolitan than it's neighbors, but Jordan has a larger population than Israel (10.2 million to Israel's 8.65 million - yes, Israel has pretty much the same population as Switzerland). At this rate of growth, Israel will be shooting over 10,000 COVID-19 cases very soon.

The point I am making is: it's not just the USA. Yes, 17.43% of the total numbers are coming out of the USA. Just three weeks ago, it was less than 1%. And with China combined, those two nations make for 31% of the world's COVID-19 numbers, but the rest of the world is still 69% of this misery and a huge number of smaller nations (like Switzerland and Israel) are growing at an exponential rate faster than the world-rate.

And, here the numbers for the start of day today, going back to 02/27/2020:



Numerically, we added more cases yesterday (+64,332) than the day before (+60,756), but the actual growth rate was slightly smaller: 12.16% as opposed to 12.97%. Don't uncork the champagne yet: this kind of pendulum in the statistics we have been seeing all the time. It just happened from 03-024 to 03-25 and also from 03-21 to 03-22. It is a sort of sinus-curve that exists within the overall growth and on top of that, anything over +10% is dangerously, pretty much uncontrollably exponential. Between these two rate, where we reach 5.4 BILLION infected in late September rather than early August would be totally irrelevant. The damage would be done, so or so. The curve is still very exponential.

And finally, before I start my day here in Germany, as I wrote yesterday, when it comes to the numbers, I stay brutally neutral. But there is no joy in me in either watching these deadly numbers rise or reporting them. Never before in my life would I be so glad to be wrong about something as with the here and now. And as I wrote yesterday, most likely, for every one of those 27,000+ people who have died from this new virus, a number of health care workers worked furiously and probably to complete exhaustion to save that person's life, from the EMTs working way too long shifts who, without extra protective wear, who are picking up people who call the emergency lines, to the ER workers who first start the cases, to the ICU workers who are working in every bit as dangerous circumstances, to the swab-workers who are conducting tests - and most of these people do not have adequate PPE, to the people who are putting the dead bodies in ice skating rinks or refrigerated cars in order to keep the virus (which then concentrated in huge amounts) from spreading from dead to (still) live bodies - these people all over the medical health worker spectrum are currently doing things that most of us could only dream of doing. So, if you live close to a health care worker, let him or her now how much you appreciate them. Most of them also have families, have older relatives. Their lives were certainly not stress-free before this all happened and surely their lives are pure hell right now.

Those people are our last thin line of defense against a virus for which there is currently no vaccine, no cure, and where therapeutics are working only to a limited extent. History will judge our generation based on how we protected those among us who are the weaker and most susceptible to this disease. We will not be able to save all of them, the 27,000+ figure is proof of that already, but we must work like hell to save as many of them as we can. They are OUR grandparents, OUR parents, sometimes OUR siblings or OUR kids.

-Stat

PS. one person asked me via email why I am screenshotting everything and on top of that, dating stuff. The answer is simple: the creation date for a thread and it's postings cannot lie. And screenshots also do not lie. And with websites that are tracking ever changing numbers, the only way to prove without a shadow of a doubt that things were the way they were on so and so date is to screenshot and date stuff. Believe me, a long time from now (assuming that enough of humanity is alive to read this thread), people will be thankful for this kind of attention to detail.

 

Currently: 30.62%

That is a scary high number.

 

Which is why the very best way to stem the spread of this virus would be for every single person to automatically assume that he or she is COVID-19 positive and then behave accordingly - and were every single person on the planet to keep distance (isolation), the virus would be dead in less than three weeks. Because one it has been resolved in a body, either through healing or death, it can only live so many hours outside of the body and if it cannot find a new host, then it just dies out.

If the entire world had gone on lockdown for 2 weeks right as soon as the first case broke in China, then absolutely none of this would be happening right now. None of it.

I am not sick, but I am not going to get to see my 13-year old daughter, who is living with her mother, for another 3 weeks. It breaks my heart, but it is also the right decision, for it may save other lives, including hers.

Stay healthy, stay well.

 

One of the reasons is the slow resolution of the cases(due to the 20 day period), and by that same measure it appears like deaths overlap(IE: People get sick on different days, so their 20 day periods are different.) As an example, today is the 28th. That would mean people sick on the 28th, have until April 16th-18th for their fates to be decided.

 

This thread is non-political. We throw no flames in either direction, here.
And those who are participating have been, by far and large, going a good job of restraining themselves.
I am not interesting in hearing propaganda from Sanders-lovers, Trump-lovers or Biden-lovers here.
That is not what this thread is for.

 

This is just incredible work that I don't have the time to do. I am so very thankful that you are here.

Listen, it appears to me that Israel and Turkey are going to be the next hotspots.

I know that it's extra work, but could you start tracking them as well?

 

We will know the true mortality rate of this horrible disease when the first wave has burned through humanity and we have an official body count.

Brutal, horrifying, and yet, true.

I have been noting time and time again that the official % of those who have healed has continually sunk, while the % of those who are to some degee still sick continues to rise. Since the Verlauf of the disease is supposed to be a maximal of three weeks, we must assume that a good number of people in the "still sick" category have been there for longer than 3 weeks and either their respective countries have not been accurately reporting that they or now well, or they are hanging on respirators and will definitely die. Or be maimed for the rest of their life, unable to work, unable to have quality of life.

You and I are statistically on exactly the same page, here.

 

This posting is very, very erudite, imo.

Tres bien, mon ami.

So, virtually every epidemiological expert is predicting that this thing will happen not just in one, but rather, THREE waves, with each successive wave likely to be more virulent than the wave before. This awakens the horror scenario of millions upon millions of people who successfully resolved wave I of COVID-19 (light symptoms, no hospitalization, for them, life is normal) getting re-infected by a more virulent strain during wave II, and this time, it's not so easy. And so forth with wave III. The only real answer is an antidote asap.

 

No.

The current German mortality rate is: 0.69%

351 / 50871 = .006899, or 0.69%.