Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

"I don't believe the water will rise above the river's bank, but just in case, let's sand bag the property"

In other words; One can minimize a risk, but at the same time, implement preventive measures.

 

actually it's the spring breakers not keeping space that was the issue. I'd love to be able to visit a non crowded beach right now for fresh air and just to get out of the house. For now I'm content to take short bike rides around the neighborhood, it's easy to stay 10-15 feet apart.

 

Without containment. If you would let this virus run free, the US would have around 1 million dead.
That's what all those measures are about.
Contain, contain, slow it down, slow it down.
The restriction are working.
It ain't the flue.

 

Heard of the travel ban ??? What preventive policies did Dr. Fauci recommend ???

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have stated that because of the dishonesty of the Red Chinese that our medical experts thought that Corona was similar to the previous SARS infections a few years ago.

 

It looks like Colorado peaked April 2.

No new cases in my county, still 8 cases and 1 dead.
Since I work with the public in my business those are the most important figures for me. It looseness that knot in my belly, just that tiny bit.
My employees are in the public, I am in that public, as they are and we all have that knot in our belly.
I am rather proud of my employees, how they hang in there.
Moral is very good

 

Great news.

More great news. Cuomo reports good results using hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Are these drugs a factor in the slowdown of the virus in New York?

Dr. Marlon Hernandez of Cano Health reports very good results as well based on 100’s of patients using the same medications. And it appears that the Malaria belt where many use hydroxychloroquine regularly is relatively free of serious Corona virus infections. The anti inflammatory effects of the drugs is thought to reduce the effects.

 

As long as we keep businesses intact, we can restart the economy. The lost production is what we didn't want to do anyway with the coronavirus running amok.

Areas of the country that fought the Spanish Flu with social distancing tended to recover faster than those that didn't.

We need to stabilize the economy quickly and not worry at this point if someone gets away with something. Get the bucks in the hands of people who lost work, and businesses big and small. States have lost tax revenue and need help.

The worst thing that will happen is we'll get leftwingers bitching about money going to business and rightwingers upset money is going to undeserving layabouts. We can't afford to let this get screwed up or we will have a nasty recession.

We have a serious problem in the future if this virus gets out in rural areas. That could be a future wave if COVID-19 runs through our cities. We have entire counties that don't have a single ICU bed.

We're going to know a lot more when random antibody tests tell us how many asymptomatic people have been infected.

 

1 - 1/R0
In this case ~ 1 - 1/2.4 Or
58%

 

I used those medications a lot, when I was in the South and Central American jungle. I was young, very healthy and very strong.
I had to take breaks, go back to Germany, get checked out, because even the low dose Malaria, very low dose, would screw up my liver and kidneys so bad that they needed several month to recuperate.
Which means your system becomes toxic.

I wonder about the side effects, which can be serious and last a live long.
My feeling about those treatments is as the early cancer treatments. You just throw the sink, the washing machine, the dreyer and the shelf with books at the patience, if they die it was the virus.

When I was in my 30s I had cancer. That's what they did, threw everything at you what they had available.
The question at that time was what killed you, cancer or the treatment and I think right now in desperation we are taking the same approach.

They killed my cancer, but nearly killed me, very close call.

 

We shall see.

 

Maybe a cruise ship?

 

Glad you are cancer free.

The main side effect of the drug that I’ve read about has to do with the eyes so regular users should have an annual eye exam. Also an ekg should be done before taking. Not sure what they are looking for.

 

We are seeing and it’s all good.

 

We have a cruise booked for December. I really hope that is possible. We're not scared to cruise, despite this.

 

How long have you had this death wish?

 

Or sweat running into your eyes. Hopefully, we may beat back the virus before we get to the summer months. In the South, if you don't sweat in August, it's because your dead.

 

I wouldn't bet on enough people having your courage to make the cruise ago.

OTOH, if we have accurate tests and a safe, effective treatment, cruising might not require great nerves.

 

Ahh I see your guessing, I forgot not to take your posts serious.

 

A new “Rasmussen/“Just the News” poll shows only 4% are most worried about loss of health. Approximately equal at ~ 27% are loss of income, finding supplies, and boredom/isolation.

 

Denial may work for you, but the coronavirus hits enough people hard that it would change behavior if we just let 'er rip.

 

Good news from Michigan. State Representative Karen Whitsett (D) states that President Trump saved her life due to his comments on hydroxychloroquine. She was tested positive on 3/31 and within hours went downhill at a very high rate. She was familiar with the drug but did not realize it was available for use against the Corona virus. She got a prescription and was just able to get it filled at about the same time as the governor of Michigan banned it. Within hours after taking it she felt much better as is doing great now. She told this story on Laura tonight.

 

Try JFK to Madrid on Delta.

 

Good evening. As Stat mentioned, there are a number of positive trends developing. I am seeing lots of them in the hotspot nations that were all in the red just a couple weeks ago. Here's what I'm looking at:



As you can see, lots of green highlight, which means improvements. The USA finally is in single digit new % cases for a couple of days. Maybe that logjam of tests will keep things like that. Or maybe it is evidence that social distancing is showing up in the numbers.

Italy new cases below 4K for the first time since Mar 17, Spain new cases down at almost 5K even, the lowest since Mar 22. Spain also seeing a very clear drop in the % of new cases, and change in active cases is dropping steadily to under an average of 2K per day. Iran also very positive signs with number of new cases dropping every day, and the average active case change nearly negative.

The UK had a one day reprieve after yesterday's nearly 6K bomb of new cases, though probably not a trend in the immediate term. Germany has been dropping in new cases as well, from a high of 6.8K down to below 4K, a first since Mar 24th. Switzerland is down below 3% new case growth, and has been into negative active cases for some time. They have pretty definitely peaked.

Even new additions Brazil, Portugal, and Sweden currently hitting lower new cases and lower % new cases below 10%. Lots to be hopeful about here.



In the deaths category, which lags a bit behind cases, things are a bit more mixed. In the positives, Italy and Spain are experiencing a very clear slowing in deaths per day, reflected both in % and real numbers. Netherlands and Switzerland as well have dipped below double digits %'s in deaths recently, which is welcome news.

In somewhat optimistic, US death rates have been slowing, down from 20%'s to the low teens. UK deaths have also been slowing a bit as of late, although a bit early to tell if it is a new trend or some hiccup in the data (such as simply more deaths will offset it later like Sweden's recent bad day).

Things that are clearly bad are Germany's death toll accelerating quickly from 150's to 220's. Belgium's is also re-accelerating in deaths. It is eerily close to Germany right now in new deaths per day for how much smaller a country it is. This shows very negatively in its mortality. Netherlands currently experiencing lower deaths, but still dangerously close to going over the 10% mortality line. Netherlands, France, and Spain are all very likely to go over the 10% line in the immediate future.

The US and Germany, both having started with much lower mortality rates when lots of new cases were drowning out deaths, are moving ever closer to 3% and 2% mortality respectively. Most other nations have rising mortality rates as you can see.

The only one nation that appears to be bucking the rising mortality figure for now is Iran, which has stabilized around 6.19%. Since Iran has a high number of closed cases now, I think it would be a good time to revisit the closed case mortality rate:



This is a screenshot of my sheet on Iran mortality. You can see where it unusually reached a peak at 7.86%, and has gone back down from those levels. Obviously the only way for this to be achieved is for more confirmed cases to show up + fewer overall rate of deaths vs those new cases to proceed further.

The closed case % as you can see is a significantly higher mortality rate, which is to be expected. After all, the closed cases don't even represent half of the total, so of course mortality will be significantly higher. But given that we are nearly to 50% closed cases, it can probably be viewed as an absolute upper limit on how high the mortality might reach (assuming no second outbreak). Eventually all cases will be closed, so both mortality figures will continue to converge until they are the same. Obviously 6% mortality is not great, but at least the nation is currently on track to be better off than quite a few European nations are.

As always, you can find my sheet where I track this stuff here.

 

Say what you want about Gillum, and I don't buy that his downfall was losing the race for governor, although losing might have pushed him over the edge, how DeSantis has dealt with COVID-19 is reprehensible. He has and will cost lives.

 

You can have gillum in whatever state you live in, hes all yours. We'll even toss in some spare crack pipes free of charge.

we literally almost voted in a drunk crackhead but people still want to beat the tribal drums. embarrassing