STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 D

Then I look forward to you quoting anyone on this thread who cited this . . . besides you, I mean. You should also explain why their numbers for massive amount/long time still match the higher end of current projections now that we are doing a mass amount and planning to do so for a long time.

 

Social distancing and closing down business is a state issue.

I don't credit anybody for social distancing. It is common sense.

 

Funny how you are suddenly increasing the range. Anyway, we have 1-2 years in the past decade that reached those numbers, and no one denies that the lack of vaccine or treatment is a huge part of why it is so deadly. Interesting.

 

I don't think I need to explain my methodology to you. Suffice to say that my prediction has come far closer (and likely will become even more close to the actual death rate) than the wild ass prediction you pulled from "experts."

You used the 1.5 million figure or have you forgotten? So trying to lay the wildly inaccurate figures as coming from "Trump's people" is disingenuous since you adopted those numbers as your own.

Learning experience and reality indeed!

 

And it could be a federal one if the federal government stepped up. But let's say it stays state and local, that brings us to . . .

Well, you quoted me responding to someone who credited Trump. You are either crediting Trump or you are agreeing with me.

 

You've already been proven wrong on this one. The 1.5 million number you quoted was based on doing nothing. We didn't do nothing. Please catch up. You are blatantly misrepresenting his post.

 

It is an effin' state issue. You don't have to be thick to understand Wyoming and North Dakota have a different population density than NYC.

 

You don't have to be thick to read the post you just quoted and actually respond to it instead of dodging.

 

According to the Washington Post, White House officials told the president that “a spike in deaths could be even more politically damaging in November than the current economic downturn,”

Trump doesn't give a crap about how many people die, Trump only cares that whatever choices he makes now are either going to help him win reelection and a bad call will cause him to lose the election. That's all there is to his decisions - winning.

 

Since the beginning of the "crisis" I've been hearing "no one is immune" as if it's some sort of mantra. Certainly that hasn't been borne out by reality, something that was obvious since the Diamond Princess. So you would think the models would account for that, but no...

 

I'd ask you to reference people who said that no one would have immunity or develop immunity, but I won't hold my breath. It would also be adorable if you could cite your claim that the models didn't take such immunity or immunity development into account.

 

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

"Flu season in the US, which runs from October through May, claims tens of thousands of lives every year. This season CDC estimates that, as of mid-March, between 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses."

Yeah added on a extra 1,000. sorry. But we could see C19 deaths well under even the 60,000 estimate. Either way the number are very similar.

You are screwed.

You want to wave around that millions that would have died had we not social distanced, which was driven by the WH and Trump nationally. But that of course means Trump did a bang up job as POTUS. You can't have that.

Or

You have to admit that C19 was never going to kill millions or even hundred of thousands and that the alarmist screaming heads were wrong for shutting down the country.

 

Ok so this makes Trump's remarks about getting the economy back up and running again within weeks pretty much spot on

 

We didn't even need to shut down the country, just the NYC terminal. If we'd shut down NYC, this whole problem possibly would've either been entirely averted or the lowest cases per thousand in the world. And people praise Cuomo, WHY? I mean, you can't go from calling Trump a dumbass to praising the guy who's governor over a state with the JFK airport and does nothing.

LIke, it's in front of his face.

 

How quickly you forget! That was your initial attack against me, that I was misrepresenting the 1.5 million model. So besides you citing it (inaccurately by the way,as a number based on no mitigation) see also my reply to the OG poster who brought up the number my reply to him in post#185.

Actually I don't need to explain anything about the mechanisms of the models since I didn't create them and don't find them accurate. You seem to be the one defending the accuracy of the models so if you want to explain why my prediction will be wrong and the models (pick any of them) will be right, go ahead. I welcome your input.

 

That's just false as I demonstrated on post #179.

If you are going to make false statements about already covered ground I don't know how you expect to have a reasonable discussion.

Please don't tell falsehoods about my posts again.

 

Remember, with regular flu we don't have any social distancing going on to mitigate spread while also having treatments and vaccines, and yet, the fatality rate of COVID-19 is still higher.

 

That was the claim of the poster I was responding to. Certainly it would go a long way to explain how they got their models so wrong.

 

So were back to early March where influenza is more deadly?

 

New York City has really been the turd in the punchbowl. If extreme measures had been taken by the mayor and governor much of this crisis could have been averted.

 

So you don't believe the "mantra" that nobody is immune? Maybe you should check with Boris Johnson or Prince Charles, I think they both felt they were immune.

 

Great point.

 

Funny how you only ever refer to preliminary estimates and not the actual numbers reported at the end of the year. Wonder why that is?

Your paranoia and Trump victim narrative is not worth peoples' lives, nor can you point to anything Trump actually did which would give him the primary credit for this. But you can't have that.

You are the one trying to have it both ways here: claiming the disease is no worse than the seasonal flu while still trying to give the dear leader credit for saving all of the lives that you tell us were never really at risk in the first place.

 

NY did take extreme measures, maybe you don't know **** about turds.

 

I'm glad you think so. You should reflect on this truth some more.