You get sick and you get over it.

If you don't get the "spike" early, you get it later. It doesn't appear that cultural mask wearing and scrupulous hand washing works forever. This virus is going to what a virus does. Spread. Open. Shut down. Whatever.

Japan is now going into its second wave run up.

 

Second wave. Not as deadly perhaps?

 

I didn't say that. Don't put words in my mouth.

 

That WAS what your bullshit statistics implied.

 

You literally divided the total dead from covid-19 against the total US population and then said, " Only 99.96% survivors over 7 months."

The notion that 99.96% of Americans have survived this virus explicitly would require that 100% has been exposed.

 

Crap, this is funny, but in a sad way, when I typed this it was tongue in cheek, then I remembered, breakfast IS political these days.

 

Semantics. Citing the crude mortality rate, does not imply that 100% have been "exposed". The Crude Mortality Rate is simply a common statistic which some people don't like to acknowledge.

 

Would this also indicate an upswing in testing? It's been a thing here in Florida for a bit, and still there are many lingering questions about accuracy in my state and others. Do repeat tests get listed as a new case, are there false positives, are these lab tests or quick tests, how many are critical, pathetic tracing, mortality for healthy, whats the antivirus count, you've tested millions and all of a sudden now now you cant extrapolate to the country? How are new treatments improving mortality, what underlying conditions are playing a large role.


tons of data gaps except cases = deaths.

Side note: no real big push for vitamins, immune system staying healthy getting healthy, extra sleep, outdoor uv light, a hub & spoke system for food banks. These should be pushed.

But nope: just shut up, wear a mask, 6 feet, vaccine looks hopeful.

Its disappointing.

 

The Crude Mortality Rate does not apply to novel contagious events explicitly because far, far less than 100% of the population has been exposed to the virus.

Again, it is an outright and brutally misapplication of the data to try and pretend that 100% of the population has been exposed to the virus.

 

Yea it does. One part of the statistical equation you're fraudulently using is the total population of the country

 

Jeez, give it a rest.

There have to be much bigger things to worry about then the semantics of an implied statistic.

If this is the most pressing issue of the day, your life is pretty good.

 

Yes. Yes. Cereal is racist.

 

That's how the Crude Mortality Rate is calculated, by definition. Deaths/Total-Population.

Fact. No fraud. No foul. Just the facts, ma'am.

 

And they are a snapshot in time...using the ENTIRE population

Which kind of shoots your argument in the ass

 

Downplaying the danger of a pandemic that has killed 140,000 and shows no sign of stopping any time soon...especially when people advocate against mitigation....seems kind of "big".

I guess it's just me

 

If that's your only solution, you'll be wearing a mask and social distancing for the rest of your life. That may be your choice, but it need not be the choice of others.

 

In some ways, worrying about and countering the effort to dismiss and downplay the threat from this virus IS the most important issue of the day.

 

Worldwide, which would be a death rate of about 0.006%. Did you know that you have a 1% chance of dying in a car accident? You have far more to fear from driving than you do covid.

 

What is the value of telling everyone the Crude Mortality Rate for a novel virus if you are NOT intentionally trying to downplay the threat of this virus?

 

Only for those who have a vested interest in politicizing covid for their own political gain.

 

Some of us think the threat of the coming Global Economic Meltdown will be far more devastating than the virus.

Saying we probably can't avoid exposure to the virus, and that the odds are that most won't die, is not the same a not mitigating the risk. Even cirdellin said he is wearing a mask.

Panic if it makes you feel better. Don't panic if you prefer dealing with the statistical facts with less emotional stress. The outcome will be the same.

 

It's just one statistic of many. Probably the most reliable, since the denominator is the most stable.

What motive is there to not "tell everyone" a fact? Fact avoidance?

 

It isn't scary enough to keep us locked down.

 

The denominator is not stable because - AGAIN - the only reason that we use crude mortality rates is when we are discussing known threats that are spread uniformly throughout the given population.

A novel infectious disease which has impacted, at most, around 10% of the given population does not qualify.

The only reason that anyone would try to use the crude mortality rate, improperly, for a novel infectious disease is because they are trying to downplay the threat of this virus.

 

The "Global Economic Meltdown" is BECAUSE of the virus. That's the failure that many are making. It is a false choice to pretend like we can either crush the virus or we can save the economy. Instead, we need to crush the virus in order to save the economy.