Who's behind Trump's big polling deficit? Two key groups defecting to Biden

It's all those "silent" Trump voters who are terrified to tell anonymous pollsters over the phone they are voting for Trump...

However, I refuse to believe Trump won't somehow pull out his gator-wrestling fansboys in Florida (there are so few fan girls anymore) to eke out a win there until it's certified.

 

The danger of publicizing polls showing large support is that complacency can set in with the voters which is the reason why Clinton lost despite having a fairly large majority in the polls. Plus supporters of the underdog tend to put more effort into their cause

 

I have no doubt that the Covidiot-in-Chief might win some of those states but to make a clean sweep of all of them is UNREALISTIC.

In 2016 they used MINORITY voter SUPPRESSION in 3 states under GOP control at the time. PA has been remapped because of GOP gerrymandering and both MI and WI now have Dem governors. On top of the Progressives have been working hard to roll back voter suppression and GOTV and 2018 was the evidence that strategy is working.

So this Hail Mary strategy requires ALL of the elements of 2016 to still be in place INCLUDING that there is no track record of FAILURE to carry across the line.

Personally I cannot recall any presidential election where their OWN PARTY was OPENLY campaigning AGAINST them.

That is UNPRECEDENTED territory and it means winning BACK all of those disaffected voters BEFORE finding the Independents needed to tip the scales.

Racist hate mongering is not going to cut it.

 

I agree with your point but the Progressives are NOT going to allow any complacency in 2020.

 

It is a foregone conclusion that the flawed prediction models that led to the erroneous forecasts in 2016 have been updated to increase the accuracy of said forecasts.

Things like the built-in Anti-Hillary Vote and "DNC!" "Emails!" don't exist in 2020.

The Unconventional Nature of the campaign (due to Covid) makes it (virtually) impossible for there to be any sort of gamechanging event that will flip the narrative.

Trump is Toast. Biden WILL WIN. Period.

^And, Everybody KNOWS that.

Trump is already aware that he is Certain to LOSE and is already working on a strategy to Challenge the Election Resuls.

Trump is already setting the stage for not accepting any result that relies heavily on mail-in voting.

Of course, the 1/3 of America who represents Trump's "Base" (a number that is Exponentially Overrepresented on Social Media) won't believe anything until after Biden is sworn in on 1/20/21.

In fact, even Donald Trump (whose Entire Presidency has been based on LIES and Abject DELUSION) has been reduced to 24/7 PARROTING of "The Polls were Wrong in 2016!" .

The Election can't come soon enough.

America Needs to Rid Themselves of this Pathetic IMBECILE.

 

I'm no election historian, but you can't go an entire week without hearing about a new anti-Trump group primarily made up of recovering Republicans

SNIP
RVAT, which launched in May, is among a growing number of Republicanled groups dedicated to making Trump a one-term President. Since December, longtime GOP operatives and officials have formed at least five political committees designed to urge disaffected conservatives to vote for Biden. The best known of these groups, the Lincoln Project, has since forming late last year gained national attention for its slick advertisements trolling the President. Right Side PAC, led by the former chair of the Ohio Republican Party, launched in late June; a few days after that, more than 200 alumni of George W. Bush’s Administration banded together to form an organization called 43 Alumni for Biden. There’s also the Bravery Project, led by former GOP Congressman and erstwhile Trump primary challenger Joe Walsh. And plans are in the works for a group of former national-security officials from Republican administrations to endorse Biden this summer.
ENDSNIP

https://time.com/5870475/never-trumpers-2020-election/

 

Lets say I am a big time vegan. I supported the opening of a vegan restaurant in my neighborhood and I can't bear the thought of eating any animals.

Then I decide I don't like the manager of the vegan restaurant I supported so I go next door and get a rare steak instead.


That is the completely idiotic logic of the supposed Republicans who say they are voting for Biden. It doesn't even make sense. Its complete astroturf fakery.

 

Like all the polling last time. Imagine that.

 

Speaking of "Reasons" for Trump's Polling Deficit:

The new AP poll says it all with one key metric.

Right Direction/Wrong Track:

March: 42/58

July: 20/80

Trump's economic approval:

March: 56/43

July: 48/51

Trump is Toast.

 

YOUR "astroturf fakery" is likening your PARTISAN party LOYALTY to sincerely held beliefs in the sanctity of all life.

Politics is NOT about FAITH, it is about DELIVERING for We the People.

Your SELFISH Shitstain-in-Chief is INCAPABLE of doing anything that does NOT benefit HIMSELF!

Those who are not BLINDED by their abject LOYALTY to their "god-emperor" can clearly see these egregious SHORTCOMINGS of his.

 

CAPITAL LETTERS!!!!

and I'm pretty sure its astroturf fakery. I'm also pretty sure its going to make about as much difference as pissing in the ocean.

 

You're missing an important detail.

The number of registered Republicans has dropped significantly in the last year. So much so, that the're now more independents than Republicans in the country.

That's a first.

Even though 90% Republicans still support Trump, they're still a hard core minority of voters.

A large portion of the moderates right wingers have rallied behind Biden.

 

Some people won't be convinced until after Biden is actually sworn in and Trump is dragged kicking and screaming from the White House.

The Electon Night Meltdown on Faux will be Glorious.

Maybe they could hire back Megyn Kelly for One Night Only?



Roberts will be administering the oath to Biden and the Trump Faithful will still be screaming "Rigged" and "We Wuz Robbed".

You can already see it coming.
As predictable as the Sunrise.

 

Substitute the word Biden for Hillary in your post and its the same exact lame argument as last time - and what happened last time?

 

The recent transient polling shows that the media is trying desperately to create an image of dissatisfaction. Trump is still on course to win at least 28 states and end up with over 270 EC votes.

But Trump could possibly win over 31 states, which would be better than he did in 2016.

The polling that I looked at on Saturday only surprised me in one area.

Trump is picking off the Hispanic vote by the truck loads. The greatest shifts have been in Florida, New Mexico and Nevada. But also some less significant shifting going on in Texas and Arizona.

I also still expect to see Trump get about 17% of the Black vote in spite of a potential Black VP nomination.

 

All the polling last time? Did you mean 2018? You know...the last election cycle?

 

EXCEPT:

The Dynamic has Totally Changed since 2016.

and

There is NO Comparison.

Outside of that, you've got it covered.

 

I know thats what you'd like to think, buuuuttt... no.

 

Not really. If anything Trump has more support than he did in 16.

 

Well let them do that first, we should not be encouraging people who have no interest in politics and make no effort to keep informed to vote. If you can't get up the gumption to do so on your own please don't.

 

Lolwut?

Not a chance.

It is possible that he MAY get more votes (simply as a result of more people reaching voting age).

But, structurally, he will have much less support due to the fact that his FAILED Policies are now a KNOWN Quantity.

In other words:

A Lot of People "Took a Chance" on Trump (in 2016) and he failed miserably.

An Overwhelming Majority of Those people will vote for Biden this time.

 

Oh, you didn't want to talk about the accuracy of the polls from 2018 when the final RCP average was off by 1.1% and you'd instead prefer to talk about the accuracy of the 2016 polls when the final RCP average was off by....

1.1%.

 

That argument makes no sense. We should encourage everyone to vote regardless of whether you believe that they are interested or properly informed.

 

You might want to exit your liberal echo chamber once in a while a take a look around.

 

He is literally debating you as we speak. Are you inside the liberal echo chamber?