What are you basing your assertions about current Republican and Independent support for either candidate upon, exactly? All you cite is a 2016 poll.
That he does. In Wisconsin it does. Wisconsin has enough people outside of Dane and Milwaukee Counties to offset them if they simply get out and vote... and they are more enthusiastic for Trump than they were in 2016 (especially in the Milwaukee suburbs)... Wisconsin is not California, where the few huge liberal cities vastly outnumber the conservative rural areas... In WI, the conservative rural areas can indeed match the numbers of the bigger liberal cities...
That makes no difference if they still have confirmation bias; which can easily render them incapable of being objective.
If Gallup is to be believed, yes, but very minor. 27% of the electorate identified themselves as Republicans in Nov 2016, as of 4 Jun 2020, 25% do. Democrats has increased by 1 point from 2016 to 31% by 4 June 2020. Independents made up 40% of the electorate in both 2016 and 2020. You'll always have your 2-3 points who identify with third parties. A good point, one I hadn't thought to look into.
That type of movement is almost certainly within the margin of error. The other point to consider is that the "independents" are very rarely willing to actually switch their votes between the parties. In other words, even if they call themselves independent, most of those voters will almost always vote for a single type of party/candidate.
Going inside these polls getting the averages. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Very true, I usually break down independents into three categories. Independents lean Democrat, independents lean Republican and true or pure independents with no leans. If one is into election forecasts, knowing how many are in each category is important. History show that those on average who identify themselves as Republicans and or Democrats will vote for their candidate 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is. Some quick history on that. 2016 88% of Republicans for Trump, 89% of Democrats for Hillary Clinton 2012 93% of Republicans for Romney, 92% of Democrats for Obama 2008 90% of republicans for McCain, 89% of democrats for Obama 2004 93% of Republicans for Bush, 89% of democrats for Kerry 2000 91% of Republicans for Bush, 89% of Democrats for Gore and so on. 90% is a good average for the party faithful. Independents who lean on average will vote for the party they lean toward roughly 70% of the time. Pure and or true independents with no leans, who the heck knows. They're very finicky. They can vote for one party 65% one election and then vote for the other party 65% in the next election. Impossible to predict them. But they only make up 10-15% of the total independent block of voters. I tend to get number crazy, so forgive me on that.
I enjoy the numbers, don't worry. Is there a way to measure the preference of the "Independents who lean?"
We are all subject to confirmation bias, how much it affects someone, if at all, depends on the individual.
That's hard. Most polls will give you the breakdown of independents who say they'll vote for Biden or Trump, they'll have other, the choice for third party most of the time and of course the undecided, not sure. But that's it. No independent leans. So it becomes an educated guess. But a guess nonetheless. Looking at independents as a whole, over the last two months, they have broken down approximately 40% for Trump, 40% for Biden, 10% other, 10% undecided. Of course Trump may lead one week by a couple three points, Biden the leader the next week and back and forth. Independents usually don't become locked in until a week to a month prior to the election if we go by history. Usually those in the other column, third party voters will be cut in half as they decide to vote for one or the other major party candidates. The old saying from the major parties of, third party can't win, so a third party vote is a wasted vote begins to sink in. Of course the undecided's also begin to make up their minds. Usually these other's and undecided's go against the incumbent. Perhaps by an average of 60-40. If they were happy with the incumbent, they would have said so long before a week or two prior to the election. I'm not sure this helps, but here it is.
I'm an ex-Repub. Voted for Romney in his election against Obama. Disliked Trump a LOT back in 2016 so voted Gary Johnson 3rd party. Definitely voting for Trump in 2020.
Republican politicians, trying to run with a pantload of Trumpery, are now turning on their own legislation as a consequence of the lack of leadership.
Why? Didn't you get pissed at trump for failing to punish or even call out Russia for paying a bounty for the deaths of American soldiers?
Confirmation bias can cause people to disregard negative information about a political candidate that they support.
"My family company was one of the many companies that helped build the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. Trump did not pay my family's company $8 million. So, I always remember going to New York and being like 'dad, isn't that the guy that, you know, owed you the money.'" Are you a Republican, ex-Republican, or Trump-voter who won’t support the president this November? Share your story here: https://rvat.org/tell-your-story
? These are Republicans who pay attention to the facts and live in reality. They're not pleased with the cult leader and charlatan in the White House, nor with his enablers in Congress. "He has literally brought the white supremacist movement back." Are you a Republican, ex-Republican, or Trump-voter who won’t support the president this November? Share your story here: https://rvat.org/tell-your-story
These are pretenders. Astroturf paid for by left wing money and pushed on left wing social media. Its a scam and everyone knows it.