It is clear, even for me on the other side of the Atlantic, that Republican voters don't like Mr. Romeny that much. Even his "big win" in New Hampshire with about 40% of the vote isn't that spectacular when you consider that he was on his home turf, and even a clear majority of around 60% of Republican voters didn't want him to be President... By now, it is also clear that Mr. Paul is trying to "preserve" the Libertarian movement and pass his legacy on to his son, among others. He ain't dropping out. Mr. Gingrich is out to destroy Mr. Romney,... Getting to a Brokered Convention By Brian Bolduc Your thoughts?!
Romney got a bigger percentage of the votes in NH than McCain did in 2008. How would a brokered convention work when Romney sweeps every state?
Unrealistic. Republicans don't broker conventions. Someone will emerge a clear winner in the next few states.
New Hampshire wasn't really meaningful this time around because Romney lives there. It's not reflective of his likely performance elsewhere.
Actually, probably not. The Republicans aren't doing "winner-takes-all" in the early States this time around.
I didn't mean officially. Republicans just don't do that sort of thing. Even if they get the proportional states out of the way first (though, as I recall, Florida is not), that doesn't imply a brokered convention. Republicans as a party just aren't that disorganized, even in their pathetic shape this cycle. Deals will be struck behind the scenes, candidates will strategically drop out, support will coalesce in exchange for promises in office.
That won't be the case with Paul and his delegates. He won't strategically drop out,make deals, or accept an office. They're gonna have to work mighty hard to get his delegates on board.
They won't need his delegates in all likelihood. Maybe things would be different if there was another non-establishment candidate that was also picking up votes from another demographic. The idea that Paul will be able to broker a convention without actually winning some large states is not realistic. Establishment Republicans simply won't allow that to happen. They'll make whatever deals are required to get the other candidates to fall in line. Huntsman as Secretary of State? Fine. Pour some money into Gingrich's coffers for a Senate run? Sure, fine. They will do what is required to make sure that Paul does not have enough influence to broker the convention. I know it looks like he's got a chance right now, but those numbers are going to skew hard when we start getting to winner take all states like Florida. The only way Paul might get what he wants is if he can win South Carolina and get an early boost and showing of "electability".