This is a question that those on the Far Right would immediately answer with a resounding "No!". On the other side, you have the Far Left with the opposite opinion. Right now, it looks like (barring an X-Factor), Obama will probably win a close race. My personal estimate is Obama 290, Romney 248. I thought Obama made a huge mistake with the whole Birth Control thing but it seems it was a very shrewd red herring on his part. According to right-leaning Gallup, it has cost him nothing among Catholics. Also, Catholic Health Systems has issued a press release thanking President Obama for his compromise. But the GOP is discussing it every day. This occupies twice the news time as gas prices and much more than unemployment. Oops. As seen below, as of 3/1/12 his current lead over Romney in the combined average of seven polls is +6 points: Rasmussen Tracking 2/28 - 3/1 1500 LV 48 42 Obama +6 Politico/GWU/Battleground 2/19 - 2/22 1000 LV 53 43 Obama +10 USA Today/Gallup 2/20 - 2/21 881 RV 47 47 Tie Associated Press/GfK 2/16 - 2/20 1000 A 51 43 Obama +8 Quinnipiac 2/14 - 2/20 2605 RV 46 44 Obama +2 Democracy Corps (D) 2/11 - 2/14 1000 LV 49 45 Obama +4 CNN/Opinion Research 2/10 - 2/13 937 RV 51 46 Obama +5 Prior to the Birth Control issue, he led Romney by only 2 points. This issue is obviously working in his favor. Now it's time to get smart again. His talk about green technology liberating us from a long term problem is appealing to his base but we Independents aren't as impressed. Now I don't complain about gas prices because it was my choice to buy a ginormous gas-guzzling sedan. But I'm the exception to the rule. Regardless of T. Boone Pickens' assertion that politicians don't determine prices, a lot of people will blame Obama anyway. And they have a point. He may not have caused them but he can effect them. Obama should state that yes, he's continuing his Green Program or whatever the hell it's called AND he's immediately lifting the ban on offshore drilling. Better us than China and Cuba. He should announce the acceleration of the EIS for Keystone XL and that he will approve a route within three weeks. He should make it clear he is opening the floodgates to allow domestic more domestic leases. Leave the SPR alone. ANWAR isn't necessarily needed either. Open offshore drilling, public land leases and Keystone XL, and the speculators are going to have a VERY hard time justifying $5 a gallon. It will offer the additional benefit of sending OPEC a clear message that we are serious about providing for ourselves. What then? Throw out a couple more diversionary issues. Grutter v. Bollinger is going before the Supreme Court soon. Obama has publicly stated that he doesn't support Affirmative Action as practiced at the University of Michigan. But he should publicly announce that he feels this is a very important issue. He should also put out some soundbites that he feels the examination and striking down of racial profiling etc... as proposed in AZ SB1070 (the AZ immigration law) is a huge victory for Real Americans. Put it in words just like that. Inflame the Far Right. If they run with it to the Extreme Right the way they have about birth control, Obama is guaranteed the minority vote. The final two strategies I think he should implement are: #1. Attack the GOP using only the words of non-Democrats. "Moody's stated the reason for the downgrade was directly attributable to the inability of the US Congress' to approve the debt ceiling." "I would not have bailed out the auto industry." "The GOP took a pledge that they would take no action that will result in an increase in taxes - until it comes to one that benefits the Middle Class." "Mitt Romney doesn't care about the Middle Class." and so on from Newt Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann et. al. #2. I think he's been sand-bagging and is just waiting to do this: Brag about his record of accomplishments. Now of course, The Far Right will go into denial about every fact, figure and anything else that makes Obama look good. But they don't count. Like the Far Left, they don't determine elections. Regardless of what they say, Obama has a lot of facts working in his favor as far as his record for the last year. Not opinons or spin. Facts that only the Extreme Right even try to deny. It's time for him to quite being so darn humble! (LOL! I Know our Extreme Conservative friends are going to love that one!). Facts: * Dow has gone up over 85% since Obama took office. * GDP is up. * Unemployment has been on a consistent downward trend. * Manufacturing is up. * GM & Chrysler are showing profits. * We got Osama bin Laden * We're out of Iraq. * We've announced the withdrawal from Afghanistan. No more Bush wars. * We got in and out of Libya without huge cost or casualties. * He repealed DADT. * He refunded the Veterans Administration and double the counselors. * Closed the hole in MediCare for seniors. I'm not saying Obama is responsible for all those things. American voters don't read long, detailed articles and posts. They listen to 15 - 30 second soundbites. There are a lot of soundbites in the list above. Barring the X-Factor, I see Obama winning 290 to 248. Better if it's not Romney. Oh and for the whackjobs out there. The fact that I'm voting for Obama this year soesn't make me a Democrat. That's what you wish. What it means is that Obama does better with Independents than your guys do. Those of you who can't tackle issues and facts (you know who you are ) will post about me instead of the topics covered above. SO easy to predict
Obama will probably win re-election, an eternal testament to the destructive quality of the GOP base. This should be a shoe-in, but the contraception crazed, birth certificate conspiracy theorist element has played the spoiler.
I won't be surprised when Obama gets in and Mittens loses. But my question is, how ugly will it become?
You know I honestly believe that Ron Paul would do best against him. I like him better than anyone the GOP is offering by a long shot. But today's GOP is no more going to let Ron Paul on the ticket than they would Ru Paul.
Here are the facts as they stand now. Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate the GOP has. But he can't turn out the base. 40% of the electorate votes Democrat. 40% votes Republican that leaves 20% moderate vote. Mitt can get that 20%. But the base will not vote for Mitt. So he can't win with just 20% of the moderate vote. We have been thru this already. Remember John McCain, Bob Dole. What happens when Republicans can't turn out the base? They loose. Mitt will be just another moderate candidate that can't energize the base. Rick Santorum can't win. He can turn out the base but he will not do well with the moderate middle. Santorum is just to religious for most. He will scare of the moderate vote. There is an old saying. "It's the economy stupid." But Rick seems to not have gotten the memo because he can't stop talking religion. Newt Gingrich. He just has to much baggage. If Newt is the nominee, someone in the administration will leak confidential information right before the election that will turn off the voters. And Newt has damaging material. Ron Paul. He is standard bearer of a small minority vote in the US. He wants the legalize drugs, get rid of the welfare state, pull back from the world and isolate the US. His politics is not were most voters are now. Obama has 1 billion dollars. Plus he has the super pacs with more money to back Obama. Obama will do to the Republican candidate what Mitt has done to his competition. Obama will launch attack ad after attack ad. It will be ugly, but when the dust settles, no Republican will survive a 1 billion dollar negative ad campaign.
Good post! You make a lot of valid points (and the hard Right ignores them at their peril). A few other comments to add to your points. First, I think Erik Erickson over at Red State made a very telling point in a post he made last Wednesday Second, in his attempt to make himself acceptable to the hard core base of the party, Romney has pretty much locked himself into very hard Right stances, especially on Social Issues that just won't sell with most of the electorate, especially if the issues the campaign is run on are Social rather than Economic. Because one of the greatest hits against him by conservatives has been his flip flopping on Social issues over the years, he cannot now move back to the center on those issues for the General Election and hope the base will continue to support him. They will bolt to either the Libertarian or the Constitution Party. Third, whoever wins the Republican nomination (and I seriously doubt that Super Tuesday is going to give anyone a clear win) is going to have to spend a great deal of effort in healing the divisions in the party that this nomination process has opened up. While the drawn out fight between Obama and Clinton in the last primary season was a hard one, the candidates were both seen as strong candidates. This cannot be said of the current struggle. All of the candidates are seen as not first tier and they have been doing a lot of damage to each other. I think, barring a catastrophe of some sort, I think Obama wins it with room to spare.
I personally can't see why anyone would want to run for office, especially for President. There is no wonder we can't get anyone of any quality to run, because the media brings up the first time they wet their pants when they were babies and everything since.
Obama shouldn't be electable, but is due the GOP. While the OP lists some things that have gotten better, was there really any way to go but up? The point is, on economic issues, we hit bottom with Obama and any gains are in spite of his programs, not because of them. Add to that his budgets which call for ever-increasing deficits and you got a formula for a one term President. The GOP is determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, however. The only candidate that makes any sense and could draw enough Independents and disgruntled Democrats to be elected is being disregarded by his own party. They are instead content to pander to a base that cannot elect a POTUS on its own.
Obama is the incumbent President (usually an advantage) and has done a couple of right-wing things (had OBL killed, took out Libya) in foreign policy. He is personable, a good speaker, a great debater and is rarely caught flat-footed. His big disadvantages are his race, his perceived hyper-liberalism and the state of the economy. Is President Obama going to get a second term: that depends on the economy and on how good a performance the Republican candidate puts on (including masses of attack ads against Obama that don't go too far).
All of his youth vote from the last election is not looking at him in a favorable light anymore as they approach the work force and see that their student loans are coming due and there is no hope for employment anywhere other than Jiffy-Lube. He upset jews as well and those cross-over votes he got to "give him a chance" are going to go republican, or perhaps the "anyone other than Obama vote". He's got money, lots of money and when he floods the tv and radio and print media, that will begin to get on peoples nerves. he's pretty much toast unless he can wrangle us into another war, which it appears he is trying to do...even then, people are just not start-struck anymore. Even my wife who was a huge supporter because she has a misdirected sense of guilt for slaves or something is no longer looking at him as her candidate. (inner at our house is always a treat when we talk politics...it's the only time the children keep quite as we go-at-it.)
