North Atlantic Current Collapse? Will the warmer cult finally get one right?

The climate change cult's doomsday predictions present a double edged sword. You could fill a book with the ones they missed. By this time we were supposed to have more intense storms with much greater frequency, no polar ice, global agriculture on the brink of destruction, hundreds of millions of climate refugees, and on and on and on. The problem is, they might get one right eventually, and it might present some huge problems.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/worl...-current-collapse-climate-scn-intl/index.html

A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”

A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.

Scientists uninvolved with this study told CNN the exact tipping point for the critical system is uncertain, and that measurements of the currents have so far showed little trend or change. But they agreed these results are alarming and provide new evidence that the tipping point could occur sooner than previously thought.


The AMOC is a complex tangle of currents that works like a giant global conveyor belt. It transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southwards.

It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters and sea level rises affecting parts of Europe and the US, and a shifting of the monsoon in the tropics.

 

Gotta love scientists still using the word “if” people keep polluting, like it’s optional. There is zero chance the world stops polluting. That is not an “if”. The only thing that’s an “if” is “if” their dire predictions happen when the pollution that is going to happen inevitable happens.

And as has been pointed out, they’ve been very wrong. Pretty much all the time. So maybe this happens. Maybe not. Either way, we are going to find out.

 

They predicted so much doom and gloom would happen "if" we didn't stop polluting. Then none of it happens, but we're polluting more now than when the predictions were made.

Like I said, some of what they're saying has serious implications, but they've been wrong so much that it's hard to take seriously.

 

Lots of 'straw man' folderol in the OP. More effort is spent upon denigrating science and scientists than on presenting the simple hedged prediction.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

Not sure really what to make of it since it says it could happen in 25 years but there is zero observational evidence that it is happening.

 

Skepticism is the way. If you disagree with the "experts" you're anti-science. When those "experts" turn out to be wrong, well that's just how science works.

Get a few right before calling yourselves experts.

 

As an avid diver, I have seen the effects of Global Warming over the last 30 years first hand. I do not doubt it. But also, I think weather manipulation by world governments to induce rain, clouds or whatnot has also affected the weather. If it is moreso than gas vehicles, who knows.

 

We are taught to be skeptics in 8th grade science class. Apparently the smart people skipped that one.

 

Climate change is a constant. The earth has gone from being a fiery volcanic ball to being almost entirely covered in ice. We're far more likely to experience a natural catastrophy of global proportions than any kind of man-created disaster. Some advice, if the climate warms and the sea rises, move.

 

Well we do know what natural processes lead to climate change, and we do know that we're engaging in those processes ourselves. So it's foolish to think we're not affecting the climate.

But yes, the warmer cult has grossly overstated the effects of human activity as well as its impact.

I got scuba certified because I was going to Hawaii. I've gone to Australia twice nine years apart, and I believe the effects of human activity, not just climate change, were apparent.

 

Again A Fuss About The AMOC. Reality: Future Scenarios Border On Adventurous Speculation
By P Gosselin on 27. October 2023



By Fritz Vahrenholt und Frank Bosse

A look back at an article about the imminent “tipping point” of the Atlantic overturning circulation:

At the end of July 2023 we had reported on an essay that thought to have identified the “tipping point” of the Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC): Supposedly (most likely) it will be already in 2057. The author stirred up a lot of dust, we described it. Our summary at the time:

DD23 is a statistical exercise, very remote from any evidence of physical significance to AMOC itself. The conclusions therein are not supported by the content of the paper.”

In the meantime (mid-September 2023), another unreviewed (preprint) paper appeared and finds very similar things. It uses several sea surface temperature (SST) data series and another AMOC “fingerprint,” a dipole that avoids including warming itself in the result of the AMOC decrease it is looking for.

And lo and behold, it comes to quite different conclusions. Depending on which series one uses – especially in the early years up to about 1950, they are very patchy in direct observation and what is missing is filled in by various “infill methods” which have a strong impact on the statistics as they underlie the paper in question – one comes to completely divergent results. For example, the AMOC “collapse” is delayed by nearly a hundred years if one uses the same “fingerprint”, only a different SST series (Instead of HadISST1 ERSSTv5).

The other “fingerprint”, also based on SST, pushes the “collapse” determined by the methods in the paper to between 2100 to the year 3300 and beyond! At the end, the authors, who interestingly include Niklas Boers of the Potsdam Institute (PIK), who is probably concerned about the scientific reputation of the institution, write:

We emphasize that these uncertainties, originating from underlying modelling or mechanistic assumptions as well as from the employed empirical data, need to be taken into account and propagated thoroughly before attempting to estimate a future tipping time of any potential Earth system tipping element.”

ANY estimate of the timing of a “tipping point” must take the uncertainties into account, which are so substantial that they are all unsound when made.

Bet you won’t read that in the media? They had their hands full, with the active assistance of Prof. Rahmstorf, also from the PIK, to propagate the near end of the AMOC.

For this, attentive readers have this blog.