The question of a draft depends on whether the US can get out of Iraq in a timely manner and not get into any more entanglements. It may have escaped you notice, but the armed forces missed its quota of recruits again this quarter, and that target had been reduced from its original number because it was seen as unreachable. Thus, you're looking at a shortfall of 12,000 to 30,000 odd recruits.

The numbers crunch is here. The Pentagon has squeezed the Reserves about as much as it can, but new recruits are the unexpected but reasonable problem. The Iraq War is not an attractive destination, with its ambivalent situation and danger, and most potential recruits are wise enough to know that Iraq is exactly where they will end up.

If somewhere like North Korea just can't be ignored anymore, then I'm afraid a draft is not only an option but a likelihood. As for the rich and influential, they are in no real danger unless they want to be. There is always a need for REMFs and support troops and if they are rich and influential they can wangle a billet there.