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Old 03-04-2008, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by stekim View Post
That's what trade tends to do. Over time it equalizes those engaged in it.
Yeah, but we could be equally miserable in the end.
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Old 03-04-2008, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Sickntiredofliblies View Post
Yeah, but we could be equally miserable in the end.
it's probably mathematically impossible for that to happen, though.

China's cost advantage rests on one thing: its labor is *so* cheap that it makes economic sense to build things there, despite the increased shipping and other logistical costs -- like having to manage a multilingual, multicultural, multi-measuring-system, multi-legal-system manufacturing process.

Let's say shipping accounts for 30% of the wholesale cost of a good. That means Chinese wages only have to reach 70% of ours in order for their cost advantage to disappear.

Can China hold down labor costs? It'd be hard. All that money pouring into the country is entering the Chinese economy and getting spent on stuff. Living standards are going to rise, whether the government wants them to or not -- and, in fact, it wants them to. Otherwise, what would be the point of engaging in trade pacts?

Moreover, labor costs are only part of the issue. As standards of living rise, so do expectations. For example, China became an industrial giant, in part, by wreaking enormous environmental destruction. As people become more affluent, the environment becomes more important to them -- they no longer wish to breath smog and drink sewage. They require more environmental regulations for industry and power plants. So producing further growth becomes more expensive, adding to per-unit costs.

I don't know where the break-even point is, but in the end their standard of living won't rise as much as you might think, and ours won't fall as much as you might think.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:04 PM
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it's probably mathematically impossible for that to happen, though.

China's cost advantage rests on one thing: its labor is *so* cheap that it makes economic sense to build things there, despite the increased shipping and other logistical costs -- like having to manage a multilingual, multicultural, multi-measuring-system, multi-legal-system manufacturing process.

Let's say shipping accounts for 30% of the wholesale cost of a good. That means Chinese wages only have to reach 70% of ours in order for their cost advantage to disappear.

Can China hold down labor costs? It'd be hard. All that money pouring into the country is entering the Chinese economy and getting spent on stuff. Living standards are going to rise, whether the government wants them to or not -- and, in fact, it wants them to. Otherwise, what would be the point of engaging in trade pacts?

Moreover, labor costs are only part of the issue. As standards of living rise, so do expectations. For example, China became an industrial giant, in part, by wreaking enormous environmental destruction. As people become more affluent, the environment becomes more important to them -- they no longer wish to breath smog and drink sewage. They require more environmental regulations for industry and power plants. So producing further growth becomes more expensive, adding to per-unit costs.

I don't know where the break-even point is, but in the end their standard of living won't rise as much as you might think, and ours won't fall as much as you might think.
Look at the arithmetic of being dependent on foreign oil. Now imagine being dependent on foreign food, clothing, and nearly every other tangible product. Our current economy, culture, taxation, and educational system relies on us shedding the responsibility of producing these products. We are banking our future in the U.S. on everyone sitting in ivory towers creating new phenomenons and then convincing the world that they need them when often, they do not.

As mentioned, the world's main energy sources aren't located here. Transporting goods is much more affordable to foreign countries. Just another reason that in the future more tangible products will enter this country than will exit. And to make matters worse, foreign workers will continue to improve their standard of living which does include education; and they will acquire more of the high tech jobs we covet so much.

More investigation into the math of "free trade" reveals that our trade partners have more workers than we do and resulting from our declining birth rate it will continue to make us disproportionated in the number of jobs. Once our standard of living is "equal" they definitely will have the upper hand in determining our markets.

Will not all factory jobs etc leave this country? Our youngest generations are certainly not aspiring to enter these careers. Except for the Mexican illegal immigrants of course.

I'm not advocating full-on protectionism but something has to be done to give more value to manual labor in this country otherwise we are to be at the will of foreign countries for our most basic needs.
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Old 03-05-2008, 05:21 AM
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Look at the arithmetic of being dependent on foreign oil. Now imagine being dependent on foreign food, clothing, and nearly every other tangible product. Our current economy, culture, taxation, and educational system relies on us shedding the responsibility of producing these products. We are banking our future in the U.S. on everyone sitting in ivory towers creating new phenomenons and then convincing the world that they need them when often, they do not.
We are not and will never be dependent on food and clothing, etc. We have the capacity to produce those things should we feel the need to and are, in fact, doing just that. Oil is a natural resource. We use more than we have. That is not at all the case with tangible products. Capital goes toward its most efficient use. So right now lots of manufacturing is done in China because goods can be produced and sold more cheaply. But we are not dependent on China for those things. We do depend on them to pay for W's spending, however. That is something you need to worry about. Where T-shirts are made is not an issue.
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Old 03-05-2008, 05:52 AM
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That manufacturing jobs that would leave the US for the PRC was inevitable, after the chinese there decided to stop shooting themselves in the foot with socialism. What the US should already have been doing for about 15 years is implement rational policies in light of these realities - notably, using the fact that many people want to immigrate here to have an immigration policy that favors the skilled, the accomplished, and the high IQ, to create new imaginative products so that we can once again succeed in the world market. Instead, we have become the dumping ground for mexico's poor, so that a few lawbreaking companies can make profits, and the democrat party can get millions of more voters. Democrat leaders don't care if the ship is sinking, as long as they're the captain.
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That manufacturing jobs that would leave the US for the PRC was inevitable, after the chinese there decided to stop shooting themselves in the foot with socialism.
This is not what happened. China was a stagnant craphole, in danger of going nowhere, and fast. Then something incredible happened, something that the Chinese had been demanding for many, many years. MOD EDIT: **profanity deleted** Clinton granted them 'Favoured-Nation' trading status.

I am Canadian and I know the real reasons why China's economy is growing. You should all kiss Clinton's butt for selling out your country. Look for yourselves. I become bloody tired of teaching you Americans your own bloody history:


Quote:
Clinton victory as Senate votes for China trade pact
Independent, The (London), Sep 20, 2000 by Mary Dejevsky in Washington

THE US Senate was set to hand President Clinton a signal victory last night, voting by a solid majority to normalise trade relations with China despite international unease over its human rights record.

Passage of the Bill, which grants China permanent "most favoured nation" status and clears the way for it to join the World Trade Organisation, is likely to be seen as one of the biggest achievements of Bill Clinton's presidency.

The White House said that the vote would mark a turning point in US-China relations, comparable to Richard Nixon's epoch-making visit to Peking in 1972. The US trade representative, Charlene Barshevsky, said the new law not only provided "tremendous opportunities for US workers, farmers and businesses", it was also "the best way to promote reform in China and stability in the region". The retiring senator for New York, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, described the vote as one of the most important since the Second World War.

Once Mr Clinton signs the Bill into law, Congress will be able to abandon its annual jousting match over "most favoured nation trading status" for China, which has been a hostage to political circumstances for the past 20 years.

Yesterday's vote followed days of impassioned debate on the Senate floor and in committee, where opponents of the Bill argued that it granted one- sided trade advantages to China and would only depress wages and lead to job losses in the United States. China currently enjoys a $68bn (pounds 48bn) surplus in trade with the US, supplying it with all manner of low-priced consumer goods, from toys to telephones and kitchen appliances.
Duh? American morons. The opponents of the Bill have proven to be 100% correct.

Last edited by raytri; 03-05-2008 at 07:06 AM.
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Old 03-05-2008, 07:08 PM
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We are not and will never be dependent on food and clothing, etc. We have the capacity to produce those things should we feel the need to and are, in fact, doing just that. Oil is a natural resource. We use more than we have. That is not at all the case with tangible products. Capital goes toward its most efficient use. So right now lots of manufacturing is done in China because goods can be produced and sold more cheaply. But we are not dependent on China for those things. We do depend on them to pay for W's spending, however. That is something you need to worry about. Where T-shirts are made is not an issue.
Sure, in the future we can start working again once we learn how to all over again. My point is, why wait until things get so bad that we have to start all over again producing the tangible products. We are watching these factory jobs leave the country incredibly fast. High-tech jobs will do the same. Why wouldn't they?

In the near future food producers could easily meet the same fate of today's factory workers. Countries like Brazil can produce food cheaper just as the Chinese can produce t-shirts cheaper. Why do we have to ruin these American's way of life and means of living now, and then start producing once again after China is finally equal? Just a little bit of protectionism could help stave off some poverty in America.
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Last edited by Sickntiredofliblies; 03-05-2008 at 07:10 PM.
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