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Old 04-11-2008, 09:34 AM
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Originally Posted by sunnyside View Post
Articles on N Koreas nuclear program don't mention new facilities for plutonium refienment.

Is there any reason to believe the material from the rods couldn't be fed into existing Uranium enrichment equipment? Except that it would be much more efficient due to the now larger mass difference of the products?
I'm not sure. I've never really thought about that. The first thing that comes to mind is that Uranium Hexaflouride, which is the gaseous version of Uranium that they used at Oak Ridge is incredibly corrosive and chemically reactive, gnarly stuff. Hence the facility built to deal with it took into account the specific chemical qualities of Uhex. Plutonium might have different chemically reactive qualities and could be incompatible with U separation equipment. The bottom line is always the quality of the fissile material. Every atom that isn't the correct element or isotope poisons the reaction by capturing neutrons, so although I don't know, I doubt that it could be done cleanly enough.

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As for the time, what I understood is what you said. You spoil your Pu if you leave it in the reactor too long. So it would be a matter of yanking a number of rods rods when they are ready. My 10 number comes from being able to make 30 bombs from rods that take 4 months. So if you started all the rods at once and pulled them you should get 10 bombs. Of course the actually number should be less than this. But even 3 bombs might be "enough". One to test, two to threaten.
Yep. I follow your math. Still, the questions remain. Here is what counts in that formula. If Iran chose to keep the fuel rods, they could potentially make some weapons. However, the weapons have a shelf-life because the cores of the weapons go through nuclear decay-- the poisoning we have been talking about. Theoretically, Russia would not provide Iran with fuel rods if Iran was not returning the spent ones, so they would lose their supply, and their weapons would be rendered useless in terms of actual nuclear capability. Not ideal, but also unavoidable. The more we talk about it, the more it seems like the issue is raw material. I don't think Iran has good access to it at the moment. Either way, it's not a good thing to have weapons "you feel like you need to use before they spoil." Clearly that is bad. Doesn't get them around the isolation/refinement of fissile materials problem either.
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Old 04-11-2008, 10:33 AM
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Well for Iran I think the relevant bit of tech is their centerfuges.

Specifically
http://www.isis-online.org/publicati...2_7Feb2008.pdf

Now they have 3,000 P-1's and are supposedly adding 6,000 new centerfuges, presumably of the IP-2 type
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24007293/

Putting those references together you get that they could make 6 uranium based nukes a year. Or one in two months.

However you need less plutonium, and again the higher mass difference should make the process much more efficient.

Also nothing says they couldn't continue to add centerfuges.

I guess the question then is can they actually dump a different material in their centerfuges without an overhaul and how long would it take then to spin up a couple plutonium bombs (which would presumably be loaded into pre made wareheads)?

And I guess how practical is it really to hit those sites within the window we would have. Could Israel even do it?
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Old 04-11-2008, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by sunnyside View Post
Well for Iran I think the relevant bit of tech is their centerfuges.

Specifically
http://www.isis-online.org/publicati...2_7Feb2008.pdf

Now they have 3,000 P-1's and are supposedly adding 6,000 new centerfuges, presumably of the IP-2 type
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24007293/

Putting those references together you get that they could make 6 uranium based nukes a year. Or one in two months.

However you need less plutonium, and again the higher mass difference should make the process much more efficient.

Also nothing says they couldn't continue to add centerfuges.

I guess the question then is can they actually dump a different material in their centerfuges without an overhaul and how long would it take then to spin up a couple plutonium bombs (which would presumably be loaded into pre made wareheads)?

And I guess how practical is it really to hit those sites within the window we would have. Could Israel even do it?
The ISIS report makes it pretty clear that Iran needs material from outside its borders to build the centrifuges-- specifically carbon fiber, high-grade steel, and magnets. Neither article states where Iran is getting its Uranium, so that is still left to measure.

Also, I've never seen diffusion used to separate Pu isotopes, so I'm guessing that its not feasible using existing Ur diffusion separation technology.
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Old 04-14-2008, 04:09 PM
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Iran has their own uranium mines.

And they don't need carbon fiber to make WWII type weapons.
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Old 04-14-2008, 11:34 PM
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Iran has their own uranium mines.

And they don't need carbon fiber to make WWII type weapons.
They need that stuff for the centerfuges (and while possible, I can't see why centerfuges wouldn't be able to seperate out Pu pretty fast).

However I'm not sure it's illegal to sell them that stuff. As it can be used for "peaceful" purposes.
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