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Old 03-18-2007, 11:57 PM
yojimbo
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yeah, this is clearly one of those "there is no civil war" things...
First off, use the statistics, two to one is a killer way to say 66% prefer the current government... actually it's 49%...
and how are they spli? Sunni's thought, 51% at least, that Saddam was better, while 66% of Shia's thought Maliki is better... they are divided pretty nicely...
Civil War? poll divided between party lines, 41% of Sunni's believe they are in one, and if you have that big a party believing that and hence pursuing aims consistent with ones pursued in an actual civil war, well that's a big problem in itself... and 27% is not a small number - one in four people is enough to get into some problems...
anyway, that number may be artificially low because civil war requires a fight within a country, brother against brother etc., and this isn't exactly guaranteed when the Shia's and Sunni's have disliked each other for so many centuries - they may just not interact that much, and hence not consider their respective enemies country men... and by the way, 49% thought iraq is close, which is actually what most people have been saying.

and if you consider this article something to boast about, consider that 26% of the people poled have had a family member killed in the last three years, (which is remarkably close to the civil war numbers...) there have been over 3000 american deaths, and it doesn't seem like the government currently in place would last on its own for very long. the democratization policy of Bush is at least commendable, but in all honestly, war is the wrong way to go about it.

the only real hope here is that more Sunni oil fields will be discovered soon, and so their complaint about oil revenues dies down. This will solve more problems than 100,000 extra american troops, and will have little to do with them anyway.
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