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Originally Posted by nawbut";p="
I think it will be the Fine Gael-Labour-Green Party coalition in power. McDowell has sunk the PDs and Fianna Fail will desperately cast-about for someone (anyone!) to return them to power, but there just wont be enough among Pds, Independents to make the sums word.
I suspect that Fianna Fail will try it on with Sinn Fein, but they will crucially lose the 1 or 2 remaining Pds in doing so.
But lets not underestimate the capacity of Messers (sic) Kenny and Rabitte to get Bertie off the hook by their own inept fumbling.
It IS time for change, all the same.
Here in Donegal South West Pearse Doherty will surprise everyone - many feel that he will be elected, but they underestimate his massive first preferences, which will shock the establishment parties. They are only estimating around 13-15% for him at present; they are way off. He is a nice young fella, actually, but I get on fairly well with them all.
What constituency are you in, and whats happening there?
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I'm in the constituency of Dun laoghire.
The mood here is that people want a change. Fiana fail have two strong candidates, Barry Andrews & mary hannifin. It'll be shame if one of them is not elected, but they're the breaks.
Fine gael is running 3 candidates, Regan, Barrett & GAA man Bailey. Thats a good ticket they have here.
PDs Fiona O'Malley (daughter of Des)
Labour are running Eamon Gilmore & someone else.
Greens have Ciaran (mammy owned oil stocks) cuffe
Richard Boyd (I live on millionaires row) barrett
Forget who the Shinners have running here.
FG should really run 2 candidates. 3 candidates will split their vote thus creating the situation where FG/Labour/green/PDs to be competing for transfers. better to get 2 guys to poll well and get the transfers rather than run the risk of being eliminated early on by polling poorly early on.
It looks Bertie will be let off the hook ( £28k in 1993 would have bought a house in Dublin) , gotta wonder why we werereated to that ircus for all of last week. McDowell didn't do bertie any favours by threatening topull out of govt! Can't see the country ever falling for the free-market claptrap . All the talk of payments Sure takes the heat of Fianna fail because they don't have to answer for their non-accomplishments Their slogan "Now the next step" is similar to the 2002 slogan of "A lot done, more to do".
Havn't met any of the candidtaes yet, I do plan to meet them in Dun laoghire over the next 2 weeks. I've got lots of questions for them
There's no strong local-issue that would elect an independent. There's 13 independents, I can see a few more them guys getting in places where the health service is non-existent.
The reason I said that FF-Labour would join a coalition is that FG-Lab-Green wont have enough seats and they'll have to cut a deal with the independents.
FF-Lab will have the numbers.
WHO would Pearse take a seat from? If he's polling 15% then he wont have far to go to get the quota of 25%