The early polls indicated that Pearse would take Dinny McGinley's seat (FG), but I cant see that. Mary Coughlan was shown to have an enormous first preference vote that would take Pat 'the Cope' in on her surplus, but I dont think this will be the way it will pan-out.

Mary will get fewer first preferences than the polls anticipated and Pearse will get many many more. Coughlan and Pat 'the Cope' FF camps are split and transfers could follow a geographic rather than a party consideration. Dinny will hold, in anticipation of a possible 'Minister in waiting role' in the event of a change of government. That leaves the 'Cope' as the logical loser in the whole mix.

All this, of course, is predicated on a whole load of assumptions and 'feelings-in-my-water', etc...

But I generally have a good feel for these things...keeping my antennae out.

Dun Laoighre sounds interesting. I think you are right about the FG strategy being a bit iffy. Andrews and Hannifin are strong and, barring a complete collapse of the Fianna Fail vote, should be safe there.

Hannifin a Fianna Fail leader in waiting? Biffo the favourite, but watch her move if Bertie implodes!

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