Quote:
Originally Posted by nawbut";p="
Quote:
Originally Posted by EiregoSod";p="
WHO would Pearse take a seat from? If he's polling 15% then he wont have far to go to get the quota of 25%
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The early polls indicated that Pearse would take Dinny McGinley's seat (FG), but I cant see that. Mary Coughlan was shown to have an enormous first preference vote that would take Pat 'the Cope' in on her surplus, but I dont think this will be the way it will pan-out.
Mary will get fewer first preferences than the polls anticipated and Pearse will get many many more. Coughlan and Pat 'the Cope' FF camps are split and transfers could follow a geographic rather than a party consideration. Dinny will hold, in anticipation of a possible 'Minister in waiting role' in the event of a change of government. That leaves the 'Cope' as the logical loser in the whole mix.
All this, of course, is predicated on a whole load of assumptions and 'feelings-in-my-water', etc... 
But I generally have a good feel for these things...keeping my antennae out.
Dun Laoighre sounds interesting. I think you are right about the FG strategy being a bit iffy. Andrews and Hannifin are strong and, barring a complete collapse of the Fianna Fail vote, should be safe there.
Hannifin a Fianna Fail leader in waiting? Biffo the favourite, but watch her move if Bertie implodes! |
That's a very exciting race there. Nothing like 2 candidates from the same party who hate each other (Fine gale are avoiding that scenario here in Dun laoghaire this time). I can see why McGinley & Coughlan would keep their seats. The media will never say that a Shinner is strong in the opinion polls.
I dont know if FG here are still suffering from fallout due to idiot grandson (Liam Cosgrave).
Mary Hannifin is Des hanifin's daughter, I'm sure she'll have her backers in the party if she swoops for party leader
Still can't see Bertie remaining on as leader of FF.