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Originally Posted by Metrophobe";p="
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Originally Posted by nonsqtr";p="
Hi all - wanted to start a new thread about this, 'cause I've been thinking about this Iran thing lately, and wanted to bounce a few ideas off you, see what you think.
First off, let's kinda set some boundaries for discussion, I mean, when we say a "nuclear Iran" we're referring speciically to nuclear weapons, right?
I mean, I have absolutely no problem with the Iranian People having nuclear power for civilian use, do you?
It's just that we don't trust the Mullah's to administer it, am I right?
So, before we get going into the discussion then, let's pose this question, (or maybe please answer it during your post or something) - would you be okay with a nuclear Iran if the Mullah's weren't in charge?
Like, if they were to adopt a democratically elected government, would you allow it to pursue nuclear weapons?
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I know I'm headed straight out of bounds with this, but....
Why exactly does Iran need nuclear power? They have the second largest nat gas reserves on earth, and the 5th largest crude oil reserve on earth. It's not like they need nuclear power to make up for a lack of available energy. Seriously, they're energy flush WELL into the future. That is why I don't trust their fundamental motivation.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...d/iran/oil.htm |
No that's fine - my best understanding is, that the Iranians need oil because they have no refineries. They export crude, but they import gasoline right back. I don't remember the exact numbers right now, but it's pretty significant, it's some number of millions of barrels per day of gasoline, and I seem to remember that the Chinese import was about 20%, and the amount of gasonline re-imported was "roughly the same", so you can figure out the numbers if you know what the Chinese consume (it's "a lot") -
So the practical point is that it takes almost exactly as long to build a nuclear power plant, as it does to build a refinery. And since their economy kinda depends on the exported crude, it kinda makes sense for them to go the nuclear power route.
I dunno - that's kinda my best understanding, that I've gotten from talking to some Iranian-Americans with family back home. There seems to be some popular "resentment" against the US for wanting to take away what they perceive as this legitimate need, although it should be said in the same breath that not many of 'em really like the Mullah's very much and they totally understand the US fears of nuclear weapons in these guys' hands, but they also don't want to see the "legitimate" need left un-met because of that.