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Old 07-10-2008, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Ziggae_6 View Post
Well the theories could include that you are right and the poll is biased. Another theory is that the people in Arizona are trying to tell us something about John McCain.
In one poll? I think it would be close in other polls than.

Zogby in 2004 on election day had Bush losing to Kerry by double digits in NC and VA

Not to mention his brother is a big operative in the DNC and he has past ties there.
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Old 07-10-2008, 09:58 AM
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there poll has Obama winning Arizona.
With margin of error taken into account, it's too close to call. That's why it's purple.
Apparently Barr is getting a lot of conservative support according to respondents- enough to move things in Obama's direction (If the Barr numbers were not counted, McCain would be winning).
Could the sample be wrong? A disproportionate number of Barr supporters? Maybe. That doesn't mean it's biased. It's a fluke.
It's also pretty rough to ever be confident about "likely voters"... but all polls end up having to use that measure- beats the alternatives.

That's why polls are generally repeated over and over. It's the movement in polls that matters more than any single one.
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Old 07-10-2008, 10:03 AM
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With margin of error taken into account, it's too close to call. That's why it's purple.
Apparently Barr is getting a lot of conservative support according to respondents- enough to move things in Obama's direction (If the Barr numbers were not counted, McCain would be winning).
Could the sample be wrong? A disproportionate number of Barr supporters? Maybe. That doesn't mean it's biased. It's a fluke.
It's also pretty rough to ever be confident about "likely voters"... but all polls end up having to use that measure- beats the alternatives.

That's why polls are generally repeated over and over. It's the movement in polls that matters more than any single one.
if you click on the state it gives you a run down of the poll and it says that Barr got 9% of the Republican vote yet the polls says he only got 7%, they need to learn math.
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Old 07-10-2008, 10:06 AM
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if you click on the state it gives you a run down of the poll and it says that Barr got 9% of the Republican vote yet the polls says he only got 7%, they need to learn math.
9% of Republicans
7% of the total population.
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