Quote:
Originally Posted by Liberty
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1
The estimate really doesn't "differ sharply" from the US estimate, but it does differ sharply from the media spin on the US estimate.
The actual NIE assessed "with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know
whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."
It then went on to say "We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame." Which of course was the exact same timetable given in the earlier estimate from 2005.
Mossad is now saying 2011.
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It does in fact differ sharply. First off the US estimate is based on when Iran would be technically capable and the Israeli estimate is based on when they actually will have a weapon. The US specifically says that they believe with moderate confidence that they hadn't restarted their weapons programs. Basically the US estimate is based on the assumption that Iran restarts and goes full speed ahead with nuclear development but they believe with moderate confidence that the assumption is false.
Secondly, having enough HEU is not enough to create a weapon. The US estimate does not take into account a delivery system or the actual making of a bomb from this HEU in their estimate of 2010-2015.