Honestly it sounds like Taiwan has it pretty good right now. I don't know why they want to screw around with the situation. Once you're able to buy warships for yourself you're pretty well independent.

In short they stand to gain little or nothing, but risk losing it all. If they actually did declare independence at this stage of the game China probably would attack. Possibly 20 minutes after a Democrat takes office, or maybe right then. But I think they'd actually do it whether they think they'd win or not.