Quote:
Originally Posted by sunnyside
Well for Iran I think the relevant bit of tech is their centerfuges.
Specifically
http://www.isis-online.org/publicati...2_7Feb2008.pdf
Now they have 3,000 P-1's and are supposedly adding 6,000 new centerfuges, presumably of the IP-2 type
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24007293/
Putting those references together you get that they could make 6 uranium based nukes a year. Or one in two months.
However you need less plutonium, and again the higher mass difference should make the process much more efficient.
Also nothing says they couldn't continue to add centerfuges.
I guess the question then is can they actually dump a different material in their centerfuges without an overhaul and how long would it take then to spin up a couple plutonium bombs (which would presumably be loaded into pre made wareheads)?
And I guess how practical is it really to hit those sites within the window we would have. Could Israel even do it? |
The ISIS report makes it pretty clear that Iran needs material from outside its borders to build the centrifuges-- specifically carbon fiber, high-grade steel, and magnets. Neither article states where Iran is getting its Uranium, so that is still left to measure.
Also, I've never seen diffusion used to separate Pu isotopes, so I'm guessing that its not feasible using existing Ur diffusion separation technology.