Test your predictions here.

I'm considering 3 seperate facets. First would be a strike by the US or Israel against the Iranian reactor and/or Centerfuges

And the last being what one would anticipate if outright conflict broke out.

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Israel alone has some Issues. I just don't think they have an aircraft up to the tasked of getting to the Iranian targets and back. Just too far. I could be wrong of course due to in air refuling. They might be able to get a strike eagle there and back.

Another Israli option would be using some of their Corvettes to slam missiles into the coastal reactor. I think if they launched a swarm of missiles enough could get though to take the thing down for at least a while.

If they want to mess with the centerfuges I think their only option is longer range missiles. I'm not so sure about how effective that would really be. The targets are underground but there is stuff around, they could mess things up.

HOwever once you start talking about those options you're starting to have to fly stuff over US/Iraqi airspace which is a seperate problem.
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A US strike would be easier of course. Plenty of long range bombers with cruise missiles, aircraft carriers to give them range, and a handful of close airbases.

I'm thinking the reactor would be screwed it's just so vulnerable.

Centerfuges are again harder. We've gotten some time playing around with the Russian radar systems Iran is using, so they probably know about how viable sending in stealth bombers is. I think that would have a lot to do with how through the damage is. Also how far away we can have our ships when we do this. And advantage of the bombers is that they can get home. But ships in the region would be vulnerable.

Still I think we'd get both.
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Next would be Irans reaction. I'm not sure if this would be different if it was just Israel or the US that did it.

THeir tech is a little behind the curve, but they'll put a lot of missiles in the air and some targets are in trouble. Aside from ships I don't know that the Iranian systems are good for specifica targets but hitting cities and the like would be in order.

If it comes to outright combat I think a lot would come down to how well older fighters can perform against newer ones. I don't just mean Mig-29 vs Raptor. Iran has a lot of old stuff running like F-5's Not sure how to call it. Though my inclenation would be that we would control airspace outside of Iran solidly. Inside Iran planes would have to worry about ground based systems. I don't know how we'd fair. Though my inclenation is the Raptor would prove itself.