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Originally Posted by MrRelevant
Taking down the Mahdi Army does not mean AlSadr gets whacked or arrested.Not all of his followers are militia members either.This is just a continuation of an ongoing operation to rid the country of criminals.Warning civilians that a large offensive is coming doesnt exactly sound like smart strategy but it is par for the course in Iraq where they are a considered in every action planning session.
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Last I heard, AlSadr is not in the country. Allowing civilians to leave Sadr City strikes me as a P.R. gesture. If all of the women and children actually left, the Iraqi government would not know what to do with them. They are only prepared to house and feed a couple thousand.
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At some point AlSadr will have to choose political or armed confrontation.If he chooses politics theres a good chanced he remains relevant.If he chooses to fight I predict he becomes isolated and then possibly done in.
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I think it is Sadr who wants to choose politics not confrontation. Sadr would gain, politically, in an election and his goals for the country do not line up with the hopes and dreams of the administration and the current Iraq government.