Political Science is a complex and sophisticated academic studies in higher education. Researcher must understand well about the cultures, traditions, behaviours and the history of each country they would like to study on. Nevertheless, politics is a very powerful tool to manipulate and cause destruction to nations and countries. A good example are the downfall of Soviet Union, Communism and so forth.

Strategically, there are four super power countries with great military strength, namely, US, China, Russia and Euro(Nato). However, that isn't sufficient to enable one to be powerful but require the integration of the country's economic growth or in short, positive and steady GDP growth. As such, we can narrow down to US, China and European Union. Given the experience(history) and background of these economic and military regions, EU and China have better advantage in terms of their historical background. They belong to great strategists whereas US can be categorized under advanced technology war game. In reality, China is the most promising country to lead the next century and pose the greatest threats to US economically as most analysts believed. I will focus on the topic of APAC economic stability especially China and Taiwan.

Why is Taiwan so important to China and US? Strictly speaking, Taiwan is a good strategic location despite the westernized culture for both countries. Since Japan regime will not jeorpadize the country, Japanese will restrict its co-operation with US to certain extent. In addition, South Korea would not want to exasperate its counterpart, North Korea and China and that will restrict US military expansion in North-East Asia. Under such circumstances, Taiwan is the most appropriate strategic partner to work with as to restrain China from growing too fast. The Taiwan Government has strong commitment with US regime and will provide a military base to US to protect the country. A win-win situation occur between both countries at this point in time.

Why would China bother to integrate Taiwan into the mainland? First of all, China would not allow US to build its military base in Taiwan which is few hundred kilometer away from China economy hub. Secondly, China would not allow US to use Taiwan as a media of communication to disrupt its nations via newspaper or media broadcasting. Third, this might portray a wrong signal to other states such as Tibet and SinKiang where they have long for independence. Eventually, all these would complicate the matter further and cause instability to China and the region. The economy of APAC would be dragged and terrorism will rise due to chaotic state. The impact is as high as the tension between Pakistan and India or North Korea and South Korea and Japan.

So, what is the ideal resolution to rest the matter? In my opinion, peaceful negotiation is the only way to sort out everything and Taiwan must return to mainland but of course, with conditions that can be accepted by both regimes. Nonetheless, time is a factor that determine whether war would have occurred in the cross straits. In addition, the increased competition in military build-up would also determine the time of war. China will not attack Taiwan by 2008 if Taiwan remains its status quo. However, year after 2010, even if Taiwan remains its status quo, China may launch an attack to cease the tension for the benefits of long term strategic economic growth.

Why China will not fight with Taiwan if status quo remained at the moment? To my analysis, given the current military strength of China, winning the war is a matter of time but this is considered short-term plan. China needs to consider the aftermath where the paralysis of Taiwan economy will require enormous amount of money to stabilize the situation. Subsequently, feeding the people of Taiwan also require another enormous amount of money. However, these have not included the aftermath within China itself such as Fujian, Shanghai and etc. If the recovery and rebuilding exercise take longer, the entire China may lead to chaotic state. Again, Tibet and SinKiang may riot and declare independence. The ongoing problems will not rest easily until the economy of China return to normal. How certain would China launch an attack after 2010? This is possible if China has successfully reserved enough of capital to sustain the war and the aftermath.

A good strategist will not rush for war if he is uncertain about the winning. Resource is extremely crucial to the success of war. China might not have sufficient resources currently and the impact is high if US is involved. Crude oil reserves is the most crucial point and China needs to plan for the shortage for the next 20 years. As a result, building a long pipeline from China via Myammar to Middle East can be a backup resource for China to sustain the crude oil. During the war, sea transportation will be in critical alert and maybe blocked by US to cut the supply. Alternative solution is vital for China to take into consideration. The construction of the crude oil pipeline may take more than 8 years. Hence, my conjecture that China may attack after 2010 is highly possible.

A peaceful reunification is utmost important to ASIAN countries particularly Singapore. Singapore will be put into awkward position if the war occur where they have established good links and relationship with China, US and Taiwan. And the impact is high due to extensive investment in these countries. Let's pray for a peaceful reunification.