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Originally Posted by Kimoshnikov
But Russia will back up Iran, which will then pull the EU into a war, brining in china to help russia, and then... oh noez; WW3
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No... Russia will protect its interests but it is not suicidal.
It has a financial interest in ensuring the continuation of Iran as it is today. It will use every diplomatic option it has available and will make a variety of military threats but that is where it will end.
Russia will not go to war over Iran... Russia's goal is stability in the region. Russia cannot fight a war against America, not even with China's help. Yes both have nukes, yes both have the ability to deal significant damage to the US mainland but it would be at a cost of each Russia and China becoming a radioactive parking lot from border to border and shore to shore. Furthermore, the cost to America would be too great as well… War between NATO and Russia/China will not happen in the near future.
Ten or more years from now that could be different though.
As far as a war with Iran, America does have the ability to swiftly win a war even without Nuclear weapons.
I don’t think it would make sense to overthrow the regime in Iran and put boots on the ground like we did in Iraq.
It would make sense to do what we did to Iraq in the Gulf war though.
I can see destroying Iran’s nuclear program, weapons programs, air force, navy, radar and intelligence, ground-to-air, and command and control capabilities but leaving the existing regime in place and simply keeping the country pinned down like we did to Iraq in the Gulf war.
Iran is a major threat not only to the USA and Israel but also to many of its Arab neighbors. By keeping Iran pinned down, it would give the USA a reason to stay in the region for a long time, which would allow us to have our hand in shaping the development of the region in a way that is beneficial to the USA and it’s allies. If we don’t shape it to our benefit then China and Russia will shape it to their benefit
This is chess… not checkers.