Originally Posted by tropolis

id say maybe half the voters will actually sit down and look at the policies. thats split vote 50/50. some like obama, some like mccain.

40 percent will vote on image and overall appeal. this is heavy obama. 30-10 is generous here.

10 percent might vote on race although key numbers ive seen lead me to believe that factor is overblown. ill say 10 though just to be on the big side. out of that 10 percent, say 8-2 mccain.

i think itll end up being something like 57 43 obama.


intrade
obama 61.2
mccain 34.3