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Originally Posted by KenLay";p="
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Originally Posted by Livefrmtx";p="
"There's never been a challenger that has come back after being down double digits after the convention, after their incumbent's convention. That's never happened," Bush strategist Matthew Dowd told "Fox News Sunday."
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What Matthew Dowd told Foxnews may be true but there was no double digit post-convention bounce. In fact there was no bounce at all, the daily Rasmussen poll taken after the convention "Sept 3-5" shows Bush ahead by one point (47.6% - 46.5%), exactly the same lead as he had prior to the convention on August 30 (47%-46%)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pres...cking_Poll.htm
"It remains a very close and very competitive race," said pollster John Zogby, whose latest national survey during the convention showed Bush gaining 7 percentage points on Kerry to lead by two. "It's close nationwide and it's close in the key battleground states."
Zogby released his own set of 20 state-by-state polls on Sunday showing Kerry with narrow leads in 11 states, Bush ahead in eight and one state, Nevada, an exact dead heat.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.j...8&pageNumber=1
Now, regarding the polls with double digit lead:
The number one mistake a pollster can make is to conduct a survey from an unrepresentative sample population. That is exactly what Newsweek has done. Of course Bush is going to lead in a poll with a sample that is disproportionately made up of Republicans. In reality, in the Newsweek poll Kerry is only down by 5.6 in a three way trial heat, and thus is probably only down by 4 or 5 in a two way trial heat.
Five points is a lot less than eleven, especially when one considers that this is probably Bush's peak (almost every candidate reaches their peak immediately after their convention). Kerry is clearly in the game. Spread the word--this poll stinks.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/4/154842/1919 |
Take a look at this analysis of the Newsweek poll - the real Bush advantage may be larger than the poll's published results show:
Scroll Down to "First Look At A Big Bounce?"
http://www.polipundit.com/2004_09_05...43851196284135
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As CrushKerry observed, GOP respondents outweighed Democratic respondents in the poll, 374 to 303. With 300 Independents noted,that works out to 38.3% Republicans, 31.0% Democrats, and 30.7% Independents of the 977 total from the three. But the Newsweek poll states that 1,188 respondents were polled, with 1,088 Registered voters. And while the press release takes 20 pages to print and read, Newsweek doesn’t say, exactly, how those remaining 111 to 211 respondents breakdown. Also, I took the time to break down the respondents’ percentages: If the Rep/Dem/Ind response was unweighted, Bush would have led Kerry in the poll 58.0% to 42.0%, a sixteen-point lead, not eleven. So, while they don’t say exactly how they weighted their poll, Newsweek did weight the poll to balance things more towards the Democrats.
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First off, Newsweek noted that the interviews took place both Thursday and Friday. Thursday respondents preferred Bush to Kerry, 49% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 5% undecided.
On Friday, those respondents chose Bush 54% to Kerry’s 38%, with 4% for Nader and 4% undecided.
That means that Bush’s speech gained Bush support, and did so directly at the cost to Kerry’s numbers. Kerry’s speech did not help him; Bush’s speech clearly did.
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What about women? Kerry was ahead by an average of 48.6% to 40.5% this summer, and just before the convention, Kerry was ahead 48.7% to Bush’s 43.0%.
Newsweek now shows women prefer President Bush to John Kerry, 50% to 43%, a 12-point swing! It seems, those people who figured Laura Bush for only a marginal value in this election, figured wrong.
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