Quote:
Originally Posted by Livefrmtx";p="
"There's never been a challenger that has come back after being down double digits after the convention, after their incumbent's convention. That's never happened," Bush strategist Matthew Dowd told "Fox News Sunday."
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What Matthew Dowd told Foxnews may be true but there was no double digit post-convention bounce. In fact there was no bounce at all, the daily Rasmussen poll taken after the convention "Sept 3-5" shows Bush ahead by one point (47.6% - 46.5%), exactly the same lead as he had prior to the convention on August 30 (47%-46%)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pres...cking_Poll.htm
"It remains a very close and very competitive race," said pollster John Zogby, whose latest national survey during the convention showed Bush gaining 7 percentage points on Kerry
to lead by two. "It's close nationwide and it's close in the key battleground states."
Zogby released his own set of 20 state-by-state polls
on Sunday showing Kerry with narrow leads in 11 states, Bush ahead in eight and one state, Nevada, an exact dead heat.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.j...8&pageNumber=1
Now, regarding the polls with double digit lead:
The number one mistake a pollster can make is to conduct a
survey from an unrepresentative sample population. That is exactly what Newsweek has done. Of course Bush is going to lead in a poll with a sample that is disproportionately made up of Republicans. In reality, in the Newsweek poll Kerry is only down by 5.6 in a three way trial heat, and thus is probably only down by 4 or 5 in a two way trial heat.
Five points is a lot less than eleven, especially when one considers that this is probably Bush's peak (almost every candidate reaches their peak immediately after their convention). Kerry is clearly in the game. Spread the word--this poll stinks.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/4/154842/1919