Overview
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is embarked on an ambitious, long-term
military modernization effort to develop capabilities to fight and win short-duration,
high- intensity conflicts along its periphery. China’s defense modernization is broad
reaching, encompassing the transformation of virtually all aspects of the military
establishment, to include weapon systems, operational doctrine, institution building, and
personnel reforms. China values military power to defend economic interests, secure
territorial claims, and build political influence commensurate with its status as a regional
power with global aspirations. In recent years, the PLA has accelerated reform and
modernization in response to the central leadership’s concerns that developments across
the Taiwan Strait could put at risk Beijing’s objectives for Taiwan unification.
· The PLA is focused on developing a variety of credible military options to deter
moves by Taiwan toward permanent separation or, if required, to compel by force
the integration of Taiwan under mainland authority. A second set of objectives,
though no less important, includes capabilities to deter, delay, or disrupt thirdparty
intervention in a cross-Strait military crisis.
The PLA has made progress in meeting those goals through acquiring and deploying new
weapon systems, promulgating new doctrine for modern warfare, reforming institutions,
and improving training; however, it continues to lack the capability to project significant
power beyond its borders. Nevertheless, the PLA’s determined focus on preparing for
conflict in the Taiwan Strait--to include accelerated deployments of short-range ballistic
missiles opposite Taiwan--casts a cloud over Beijing’s declared policy of seeking
“peaceful reunification” under the “one country, two systems” model.
The priorities and objectives guiding China’s military modernization are based on
authoritative assessments of internal and external threats to China’s security interests, the
availability of resources, and the nature of modern warfare. The following sections
discuss the role of these drivers in shaping the course of military-technological
development in China; however, what appears below is little more than our best estimate.
The Department of Defense continues to have much to learn about the motivations and
decisionmaking behind China’s military modernization, in large part because of the
extensive secrecy surrounding Chinese security affairs and a distinct aversion to real
transparency on the part of China’s leaders. Despite some recent improvements--such as
publication of official white papers on defense issues every 2 years--China’s leaders
continue to closely guard and resist public revelation of basic information, such as the
full amount and distribution of government resources dedicated to national defense or, as
witnessed in 2003, details on the origin and incidence of infectious disease.