George W.
Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.
US (weighted) 47% 46% 1% 1% 5% 7-21
State: Bush Kerry Nader Other DK Sep
Alabama 54% 40% 1% 0% 4% 13-16
Alaska 57% 30% 5% 3% 5% 9-11
Arizona 49% 43% * 1% 6% 11-14
Arkansas 48% 45% 2% 0% 5% 15-17
California 41% 52% * 1% 6% 11-13
Colorado 46% 45% 3% 1% 6% 10-13
Connecticut 39% 54% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Delaware 41% 50% 2% 1% 6% 13-15
DC 11% 78% 6% 1% 4% 11-13
Florida 45% 46% 2% 1% 6% 17-20
Georgia 53% 42% * 1% 4% 11-13
Hawaii 41% 51% 4% 0% 4% 7-11
Idaho 59% 30% 3% 1% 7% 8-10
Illinois 43% 49% 2% 1% 5% 13-16
Indiana 54% 39% * 1% 6% 16-20
Iowa 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Kansas 57% 35% 2% 1% 6% 15-18
Kentucky 57% 39% 1% 0% 4% 8-12
Louisiana 50% 42% 1% 1% 6% 17-21
Maine 44% 48% 4% 0% 5% 8-10
Maryland 43% 52% 2% 0% 3% 7-9
Massachusetts 27% 64% * 1% 7% 10-13
Michigan 40% 48% 1% 1% 9% 17-21
Minnesota 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-12
Mississippi 51% 42% 1% 1% 5% 14-17
Missouri 50% 44% * 1% 5% 16-19
Montana 60% 32% 3% 0% 5% 7-9
Nebraska 61% 30% 2% 1% 6% 9-12
Nevada 47% 45% 1% 1% 6% 12-14
New Hampshire 47% 45% 1% 1% 7% 15-17
New Jersey 42% 50% 1% 1% 6% 13-16
New Mexico 44% 49% 1% 0% 6% 14-16
New York 40% 52% 1% 2% 4% 14-16
North Carolina 49% 44% * 1% 6% 13-16
North Dakota 62% 33% 1% 0% 4% 7-10
Ohio 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 17-20
Oklahoma 55% 38% * 1% 6% 15-20
Oregon 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-13
Pennsylvania 46% 47% 1% 1% 5% 15-19
Rhode Island 30% 58% 4% 1% 6% 11-13
South Carolina 52% 40% 1% 1% 7% 14-16
South Dakota 58% 39% 1% 1% 2% 8-12
Tennessee 50% 43% 1% 1% 5% 16-18
Texas 58% 36% 1% 1% 5% 16-20
Utah 64% 27% 4% 1% 5% 10-13
Vermont 40% 50% 4% 0% 7% 9-12
Virginia 49% 43% * 1% 7% 12-14
Washington 44% 51% 2% 0% 3% 9-13
West Virginia 46% 46% 2% 1% 6% 14-16
Wisconsin 46% 46% 1% 1% 6% 12-15
Wyoming 65% 29% 2% 0% 3% 9-11
http://americanresearchgroup.com/