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Originally Posted by mpotter";p="
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Originally Posted by HansMoleman";p="
actually, the consensus is the Bush is definately leading in the electoral votes. He is leading in Ohio, he is leading in NH, and he is tied in PA and NJ of all places, which he lost badly to Gore in 2000.
If you want to remain confident about Kerry, fine. But many Democrats are not. He is not doing especially well, and you should worry that he could lose to the man who you have spent a great deal of energy hating for the last four years.
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We all must agree that this is going to be a very close race up until the end...right? We must also agree that the undecided voters are going to play a big hand in the outcome of this election. If Hans is correct and Bush is leading in the electoral votes and not popular votes, I wonder what effect this has on undecided voters.
After what happened in 2000, I think a lot of people are upset that the popular voice was not heard. My theory is that if it stays this way with electoral votes opposing popular vote, undecided voters that are leaning toward Kerry because they dislike Bush, but don't want to vote because they aren't sure about Kerry will come out in droves to make sure that we don't have a repeat of the 2000 election. Those undecided who see Bush in the lead electorally and are possibly leaning toward Bush or at least not anti-Bush or anti-kerry might just leave well enough alone.
My predicted eventual outcome of this theory is that the election will be mostly tied with likely voters as usual based on polls up to the election. Then the undecided voters will tip the scale in favor of Kerry...Kerry will win this election.
Either that or my main theory will occur that Kerry is going to clean up in the debates to get these undecided voters on his side regardless, still getting the popular vote and the electoral vote in this years election.  |
I think the left of the left is upset about President Bush WINNING such a close election in 2000. But, the overwhelming majority of this country saw Al Gore, cherry pick democrat counties in Florida for a recount. The majority of this country, democrats & republicans saw Al Gore try to throw out absentee ballots, primarily from the military. And Americans saw a very angry, almost pathological Al Gore scream to the moveon.org crowd that a sitting President, at a time of war, betrayed this country.
That's doesn't sit well with any average middle of the road American. Regardless of their party status.
Americans, dems. & reps. get outraged by this kind of activity.
And we've already seen the effect of this activity in the off election year in 2002. An historic landslide in the house & the senate which actually gained seats, with a republican President. UNHEARD OF BEFORE.
No, I do not believe that this election is going to be close at all.
I think we're going to hear from all the non-Michael Moore's, the non-George Soros, the non-Al Gore's, the non-Hollywood left, & the non-liberal left wing media sources. In numbers unheard of.
The left wing of the democrat party, has p.o'd millions of democrats that voted for Al Gore.
AND even a blind person can see that John Kerry is no Bill Clinton, or John Kennedy.