Thread: Zogby & Rasmussen
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Old 10-16-2004, 10:46 PM
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Default Zogby
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Originally Posted by KLang";p=&quot View Post
Bump. Update.

Rasmussen, Bush by two. Zogby, Bush by four. Newsweek, Bush by six. Time, Bush by one. Electoral-vote, Bush 257, Kerry 243.
Zogby's measurement system and data collection plan seems to be the most well thought out, so I've been following that one. It's a rolling sample, which I believe will run through Nov. 1. I'm going to do my best to follow that one through til the end date. I think it'll be really interesting to see how close their population assumptions will be to reality.

Is there a lag in the electoral vote estimates? It seems like as Bush pulled ahead (outside of the margin of error) in the popular vote sample, he lost electoral votes. Did he pick up popular support in states where he already had the electoral votes, yet lose electoral support in states where he had been winning? Just seems odd. Do you know how that's tabulated?
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