View Single Post
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 10-27-2004, 02:04 PM
KenLay's Avatar
KenLay KenLay is offline
Commentator
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 955
KenLay is on a distinguished road
Credits: 7,504
Default -

Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5";p=&quot View Post
In RealClearPolitics.com........which is averages of all the polling, Bush is ahead in almost ALL the Battleground states:

• Florida: Bush + 1.2
• Ohio: Bush + 0.2
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +4.2
• Wisconsin: Bush + 1.0
• Iowa: Bush + 3.4
• Minnesota: Bush + 0.7
• Michigan: Kerry +3.2
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.6
• New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Absolutely, that's exactly in line with the republican pollster's observations at the beginning of the thread who says it's a dead heat in battleground states...However ... when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry’s lead expands to 5.2%


That does not take into account new voters among whom Kerry has a 20% margin and the fact that majority of undecides (65-80%) break for the challenger.
__________________
The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush
Reply With Quote