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Old 06-15-2006, 08:14 PM
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Default China is still far away behind the West

It is not sure that China will ever overtake the U.S. economy. If it does it still will be a very poor state. If you devide their GDP per number of their citizens (1.3 billion) it will show you the real weakness and condition of their economy. Check out this article:

http://www.europeancourier.org/China_06_10_2006.htm
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Old 06-17-2006, 07:12 PM
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I believe the going prediction among scholars is around 2040 China will overtake the US. They are still far behind, but it is obvious that the Chinese middle-class is growing by the fact car sales are on the rise.
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Old 06-18-2006, 01:52 PM
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As it has been proved throughout the world’s history, rising economic and military powers tend to start external expansion at certain point of their development. As Aaron L. Friedberg, another distinguished scholar explains in his work “The future of U.S.-China relations”, rising states “seek not only to secure their frontiers but to reach out beyond them, taking steps to ensure access to markets, materials, and transportation routes; […] defend their foreign friends and allies and promulgate their values”. There is no reason to assume that the rising Chinese superpower would take different course. Therefore political confrontation with the West might prove inevitable. Nevertheless it may as well create a brand new dimension of global stability and cause a renewal of Western civilization and its slowly declining power.
This is from the article you linked. It's the final paragraph. The emphasis is mine.

Do you think that part of "securing their frontiers" entails a looming conflict over Taiwan?
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Old 06-18-2006, 02:03 PM
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only if they think we'll sit and watch...
Of course given the way we act toward China these days, why would they believe otherwise?
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Old 06-18-2006, 02:37 PM
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Default China & Taiwan

In my opinion conflict over Taiwan is presently very unlikely. The Chinese economy is growing but even if it overtakes the U.S. economy it would take them another decades to match the military power of the U.S. And still the technology advancement distance between China and the U.S. is enormous and this is what would matter the most in the potential war.

There was a very interesting article recently, I think it was in Foreign Affairs, about the U.S. nuclear weapons and Russian strategic nuclear weapons. The conclusion was that presently the U.S. would be able to completely destroy Russia and its strategic nuclear weapons with one strike, which means that there would not be any response and danger of nuclear counter-attack to the U.S.

If China wanted to start war over Taiwan it would firstly have to not only possess comparable nuclear arsenal but would have to exceed it to the point that it would be able to destroy the U.S. and its strategic nuclear arsenal with one, preventable military strike.

In my opinion China could presently risk a conflict over Taiwan in two situations. First one is, if the U.S. would be attacked with nuclear weapons by terrorists and the rapid falldown of its economy would follow and the public, government would be focused on different issuses and would not be willing to risk a conflict with China over Taiwan. The second one is if the U.S. would be military engaged in too many war theaters at the same time. For example, Iraq, Iran and possibly North Korea. Then another conflict would be too much economically and military.
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Old 06-19-2006, 06:01 PM
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In my opinion conflict over Taiwan is presently very unlikely. The Chinese economy is growing but even if it overtakes the U.S. economy it would take them another decades to match the military power of the U.S. And still the technology advancement distance between China and the U.S. is enormous and this is what would matter the most in the potential war.
China is building up Offensive weapons that are first class and american Military equipment is ageing. And there Anti-seccesion law basicly says they can invade taiwan when ever they want. In the event of war china is more then a match for the United States.

Quote:
There was a very interesting article recently, I think it was in Foreign Affairs, about the U.S. nuclear weapons and Russian strategic nuclear weapons. The conclusion was that presently the U.S. would be able to completely destroy Russia and its strategic nuclear weapons with one strike, which means that there would not be any response and danger of nuclear counter-attack to the U.S.
This whouldnt be possible americas attack whould be detected and then a couter attack whould be launched before the nuclear weapons were destroyed.

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If China wanted to start war over Taiwan it would firstly have to not only possess comparable nuclear arsenal but would have to exceed it to the point that it would be able to destroy the U.S. and its strategic nuclear arsenal with one, preventable military strike.
They whouldnt have to nuke the united states, there is no way America whould start a nuclear war and no reason the chinnese whould do it. they could invade taiwan and south korea bomb japan and still have forces attack any naval response. Also they Cyberoptic warfare units are the most advanced in the world. They could shut down the worlds economy fairly quick.
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