Thread: North Korea 'ready for third nuclear test'

North Korea 'ready for third nuclear test'

South Korea’s Defense Ministry is convinced its neighbor Pyongyang has everything in place in order to conduct a third nuclear test.
“Substantial preparations for the test have been completed," a military official has said in Seoul on Tuesday, Russia’s ITAR-TASS news agency reports. “Only a political decision is needed.”
It’s thought the new test would be carried out at the site of the North's previous underground nuclear detonations of 2006 and 2009 – P'unggye-ri in the country's north-east.
In early April, South Korean intelligence already reported Pyongyang was getting ready for a third test. A report with several satellite images showing the final stages of excavation of an alleged new tunnel, was distributed to several media outlets.
Following that, Pyongyang furthermore announced it is “no longer bound” by a deal with the US, which provided a nuclear and missile test moratorium in return for food aid.
On February 29, the two countries had struck an agreement, under which North Korea froze nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, and uranium enrichment at its Yongbyon plant.
The Obama administration responded by offering 240,000 tons of food, but suspended the delivery after Pyongyang’s failed missile launch on April 13, calling it a “provocative action which threatens regional security and violates international law.”
Soon after the attempted launch, on the basis of American space reconnaissance data Seoul claimed North Korea was assembling a new long-range ballistic missile.
http://rt.com/news/north-korea-third-nuclear-test-836/

Granny says if dey launch it onna Dec. 21st - it gonna be the end o' the world...

US: Situation 'dangerous' ahead of NKorea launch
Dec 6,`12 -- The commander of American troops in Japan said Thursday that the situation ahead of North Korea's planned launch of a long-range rocket this month is "very dangerous."

Lt. Gen. Salvatore Angelella said U.S. troops in the country are closely monitoring activity in North Korea as it prepares for the launch. He said the United States sees the launch as a violation of U.N. restrictions in place to keep North Korea from developing its long-range missile capabilities. "This is a very dangerous situation, and we do not support those actions by North Korea. ... We are monitoring the situation closely," Angelella, who commands the roughly 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan, said at a news conference in Tokyo.

He said U.S. troops are working closely with the Japanese to protect the country's citizens and territory. He declined to give details. Two U.S. officials said Wednesday that the Navy had begun moving several ships into the western Pacific. North Korea has announced it will launch the rocket between Dec. 10 and 22. It attempted a similar launch in April, but it failed shortly after liftoff.

Also on Thursday, a Japanese man who served as a chef to the North Korean leadership and visited the country earlier this year said the planned rocket launch was meant to honor the late leader Kim Jong Il. Kenji Fujimoto, Kim's personal sushi chef from 1988-2001, said he believes the late leader's son and successor, Kim Jong Un, was backing the launch to show respect for his father.

Fujimoto said that despite its apparent determination to defy international appeals against the rocket launch, Pyongyang wants better relations with the West. Fujimoto settled in Japan after leaving Pyongyang and has written several memoirs. He visited North Korea for several weeks last summer, saying he was fulfilling a promise he had made to the younger Kim before he left.

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North Korean Rocket Can Hit US...

North Korea rocket 'has 10,000km range'
23 December 2012 - South Korea has retrieved parts of the Unha-3 rocket

North Korea's recent rocket launch shows it has the ability to fire a rocket more than 10,000km (6,200 miles), South Korean officials say. The estimate, which would potentially put the Western US in range, was based on an analysis of rocket debris. However, there was no confirmation that the North had the re-entry technology needed to deliver a missile. Experts believe North Korea is also years away from gaining the ability to mount a nuclear bomb on a missile.

North Korea launched the Unha-3 rocket on 12 December, in defiance of sanctions and international warnings. It was the first time the North had made successful use of a three-stage rocket to put a satellite into orbit, and observers said it appeared to mark a step towards fielding an intercontinental range ballistic missile. "As a result of analysing the material of Unha-3 (North Korea's rocket), we judged North Korea had secured a range of more than 10,000km in case the warhead is 500-600kg," a South Korean defence ministry official told journalists.

'Crude'

The official said the type of oxidiser container that was found from the first stage of the rocket launch would rarely be used by countries with advanced space technology. "Welding was crude, done manually," the official said. South Korea would not be able to tell whether the North had the technology to achieve re-entry until debris from the second and third stages of the rocket launch was analysed, the defence ministry said. "As the additional pieces are salvaged, we will be able to look deeper into the function and structure of North Korea's long-range rocket," an official was quoted as saying by South Korea's Yonhap news agency. Experts believe many more rocket and nuclear tests will be necessary before North Korea can boast a credible delivery system. North Korea insists the rocket it launched is part of a civilian space programme. But BBC Asia analyst Charles Scanlon says the North clearly wants its threat to be taken seriously, believing this to be the best way of deterring potential aggression, boosting the prestige of its leader, and being granted equal diplomatic status.

The North has been happy declare itself a nuclear power, he adds, and it frequently threatens neighbouring countries, and the US, with massive retaliation for perceived slights. The UN Security Council condemned this month's rocket launch. It said it violated two UN resolutions banning Pyongyang from missile tests, passed after it conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. The rocket was celebrated extravagantly in North Korea, with a mass rally held in the capital, Pyongyang. The North's leader, Kim Jong-un, called for the development and launching of "a variety of more working satellites" and "carrier rockets of bigger capacity" at a banquet to mark the launch on Friday, North Korean state media reported.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20830605

a lot of drama over nothing, N korea is a threat to no one...NKers are extreme attention seekers but not suicidal or crazy...any nuclear attack from NK would mark the end of it's regime, retaliation would be swift and decisive...

Granny says, "Lil' Kim gettin' uppity again...

North Korea says new nuclear test will be part of fight against U.S.
Thu January 24, 2013 - U.S. secretary of defense says predicting a North Korean test is difficult; Pyongyang says it plans a new nuclear test and further long-range rocket launches; It vows an "all-out action" against the United States, which it calls its "sworn enemy"; North Korea is upset by a recent U.N. Security Council resolution, an analyst says

North Korea said Thursday that it plans to carry out a new nuclear test and more long-range rocket launches, all of which it said are a part of a new phase of confrontation with the United States. The North's National Defense Commission said the moves would feed into an "upcoming all-out action" that would target the United States, "the sworn enemy of the Korean people." Carried by the state media, the comments are the latest defiant flourish from the reclusive North Korean regime, whose young leader, Kim Jong Un, has upheld his father's policy of pursuing a military deterrent and shrugging off international pressure.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said Thursday there are no "outward indications" that North Korea is about to conduct a nuclear test, but he admitted it would be hard to determine that in advance. "They have the capability, frankly, to conduct these tests in a way that makes it very difficult to determine whether or not they are doing it," he said in a Pentagon press conference. "We are very concerned with North Korea's continuing provocative behavior," Panetta said, but he added that the United States is "fully prepared" to deal with any provocations.

North Korea's statement followed a U.N. Security Council resolution submitted by the United States and approved Tuesday that condemned a recent rocket launch by the North and expanded existing sanctions. Pyongyang's threatening statement "should have been the expected outcome" from the U.N. decision, said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group covering Northeast Asia. "I think they are completely outraged and insulted by it," he said. North Korea's statement prompted France and Great Britain to express exasperation with the secretive regime.

Britain's mission to the United Nations called on North Korean leaders to "refrain from further provocation." France said it "deplores" North Korea's statement, telling its leaders that they need not to threaten, but instead to work toward dismantling their nuclear and missile programs. In addition to Panetta's statement, the United States added sanctions against more North Korean bank officials and a business linked to the regime's nuclear weapons program.

More http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/23/world/...-nuclear-test/

See also:

North Korea warn South over UN sanctions
25 January 2013 - North Korea referred to the government in Seoul as "the puppet group of traitors"

North Korea has issued another warning, a day after announcing plans for a third nuclear test. In a statement, Pyongyang pledged "physical counter-measures" against South Korea if it participated in the UN sanctions regime. The threat came 24 hours after North Korea said it would proceed with a "high-level" nuclear test in a move aimed at "arch-enemy" the US.

The White House condemned the move, labelling it "needlessly provocative". North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests in the past, in 2006 and 2009. It gave no time-frame for its third test. Its announcement followed the adoption by the UN Security Council of a resolution condemning North Korea's recent rocket launch and extending sanctions. North Korea says its rocket launch was for the sole purpose of putting a satellite into orbit; the US and North Korea's neighbours say it was a test of long-range missile technology banned under UN resolutions.

'Declaration of war'

The second warning in two days came in a statement from the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, carried by KCNA news agency. "If the puppet group of traitors takes a direct part in the UN 'sanctions', the DPRK (North Korea) will take strong physical counter-measures against it," it said, referring to the South Korean leadership. "'Sanctions' mean a war and a declaration of war against us." The UN resolution, passed on Tuesday, expanded existing sanctions against Pyongyang that were imposed after its previous nuclear tests and rocket launches.

Washington has also expanded its own sanctions against North Korea, with targets including a Hong Kong-based trading company and two North Korean bank officials based in Beijing. On Thursday, it spoke out against a third nuclear test. "Further provocations would only increase Pyongyang's isolation, and its continued focus on its nuclear and missile programme is doing nothing to help the North Korean people," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters. Both North Korea's previous nuclear tests followed long-range rocket launches.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21191264

I wonder how the maths stacks up.

How many countries has NK invaded and how many has the U.S.of Arse invaded?
How many nuclear tests has NK conducted and how many has the U.S.of Arse conducted?
Have NK troops ever invaded America?

Now, who is the criminal country?

Granny says if dey's hidin' it, we won't know till it hits us...

How close is North Korea to a nuclear missile?
Wed January 30, 2013 - North Korea has warned that it plans to carry out underground nuclear tests; Would be the third nuclear test Pyongyang has carried out since 2006; Comes after new U.N. sanctions for North Korea's December satellite launch; Experts say its unknown how close the North is to being able to launch a nuclear warhead

North Korea's intention to carry out a new nuclear test, coming on the heels of December's successful satellite launch, suggests that Pyongyang is moving forward toward developing a nuclear warhead and a deliverable missile system, experts say. The question remains: How close are they? The answer, like the cloistered "hermit kingdom," remains largely a mystery as does much of its nuclear program. "It's a question over the delivery system and the reliability of those systems," said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group covering Northeast Asia. "That is essentially unknown, or known by a few people inside North Korea."

A 2009 report by International Crisis Group suspects that North Korea "probably has somewhere between six and twelve nuclear weapons, or at least explosive devices," but notes that experts are divided whether any of these to be now useable as warheads -- small enough to be mounted on missiles and durable enough to withstand the hazards of flight. "It's pretty clear that these are advanced technologies and the systems present a number of engineering challenges -- and to master these technologies requires a number of tests," Pinkston said.


A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an Unha-3 rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center

Last month, on the first anniversary of Kim Jong Il's death, North Korea successfully launched a three-stage rocket that put the satellite, Shining Star-3, into orbit. The launch also signaled that the North's long-range missile program now puts the United States within reach. Last week, the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution that strengthened sanctions against the north in response to the December rocket launch. Declaring sanctions to be tantamount to "a declaration of war," North Korea is threatening further missile and nuclear tests which it said are a new phase of confrontation with the United States.

A new underground nuclear test would be the third, following tests in 2009 and 2006. While seismographs will be able to confirm if North Korea has an underground test, the size of the nuclear blast will be difficult to determine, Pinkston said. "From what I understand it is virtually impossible to mask a nuclear event in terms of concealing it due to seismographs," Pinkston said. "But as far as the accuracy of the assessment of the yield, that's where the difficulty lies." Estimates of the size, or "yield," of the 2009 nuclear test range from 2.5 kilotons to 6 kilotons, Pinkston said. By comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of 16 kilotons.

While the specter of a North Korea able to send nuclear-tipped missiles is worrisome, equally troublesome to the international community is Pyongyang's atomic technology fuelling the black market for weapons. "If its clandestine uranium-enrichment program has made strides, Pyongyang could demonstrate that it will gain access to a far larger pool of fissile material than simply its limited supply of weapons-grade plutonium," wrote Patrick M. Cronin, an Asian expert at the Center for New American Security, in a CNN op-ed. "A larger pool of fissile material is a dual threat: As a vital part of an expanded nuclear weapon program and as a commodity to be sold on the black market."

Source

North Korea trying to hide nuclear test site, report says
Sat, Feb 02, 2013 - North Korea has covered the entrance to a tunnel at its nuclear test site in an apparent effort to avoid satellite monitoring ahead of a widely expected detonation, a report said yesterday.

The Punggye-ri site, which has three tunnel entrances and multiple support buildings, has been closely monitored by US, South Korean and Japanese intelligence since North Korea ramped up its test threats just more than a week ago. “Analysis showed a camouflage net looking like a roof was placed on the tunnel entrance,” Yonhap News Agency cited a senior South Korean government source as saying. “The move seems to be aimed at keeping nuclear test preparations — now near their completion — from being exposed outside,” the source said.

North Korea has threatened to carry out its third nuclear test in response to UN sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for a long-range rocket launch it carried out in December. The North said the launch was a scientific mission aimed at placing a satellite in orbit, but most of the world saw it as a disguised ballistic missile test. Yonhap quoted an intelligence source as saying the cover at the test site may be aimed at confusing outside watchers. “It seems like a disturbance tactic, similar to one that was used when the North prepared the rocket launch,” the source said.

The South’s intelligence agencies had been embarrassed by the timing of the December launch, partly because of the North’s use of camouflage at the launch site. At one point, diplomatic and military sources suggested the launch was facing a lengthy delay, while some said the rocket had been completely removed from the pad. The rocket blasted off a day later. The heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula come ahead of a series of military exercises by South Korea this month, including separate joint drills with US forces.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worl.../02/2003554057

Semi-official Chinese newspaper urges gov't. to get tough with No. Korea...

China Urged to Take Tough Stance if N. Korea Conducts Nuclear Test
February 06, 2013 - An editorial in a prominent semi-official Chinese newspaper is urging China's government to take a tough stance against North Korea if Pyongyang follows through on its threat to conduct a third nuclear test.

The editorial Wednesday in the Global Times says North Korea must pay a "heavy price" if it conducts the test. The column says China's government should make clear in advance that the aid it sends to Pyongyang will be reduced. China is North Korea's top ally and trading partner and supplies the impoverished country with crucial economic and humanitarian assistance. China also is seen as one of the few nations able to influence Pyongyang.

U.N. Resolution

Last month, North Korea vowed to soon conduct a "high-level" nuclear test after the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution tightening sanctions against the communist state. The 15-member body was responding to a December long-range rocket launch that North Korea was banned from conducting under prior U.N. sanctions. China backed the resolution after saying any U.N. response to the rocket launch should be "prudent and moderate." The resolution expands asset freezes and travel bans on some North Korean entities. An Asia analyst at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, James Schoff, said. that by responding harshly to another nuclear test, China may be trying to show it is unified with the West in opposing such actions by Pyongyang.

He said the U.S. and other members of the international community have been influential in pressuring China to be tougher on North Korea, but that in the end Beijing will do what is best for Beijing. "China’s government will make decisions based on its own perceptions of its interests, Schoff said. "But clearly this next nuclear test, coming on the heels of the rocket launch which was pretty successful, the expectations are that this could be a fairly large nuclear test and if that’s the case the combination will be seen as a real kind of watershed moment, a turning point in this slow evolution of North Korea becoming a nuclear state, a nuclear weapons state in its own mind."

Kerry Talks with China

Earlier this week, the new U.S. secretary of state, John Kerry, talked with China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi about North Korea facing "further" sanctions under the latest U.N. resolution, if it carries out another nuclear test. Schoff said if China supports new sanctions, it will want to do so in a way that minimizes the economic impact on Pyongyang. "The more desperate you make North Korea and the weaker they become economically, you’ve pretty much cut off any hope, chance for them coming around, at least from a Chinese perspective," he said. "So they’ll do it I think more politically or try to soften some of the hard edges on economic sanctions, but there’s a limit to what they can do.”

North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. The international community has condemned North Korea's long-range rocket launches as disguised intercontinental ballistic missile tests. Pyongyang says it fired its rocket in December with the intention of putting a weather satellite into orbit.

Source

China comin' around to more sanctions on No. Korea...

Analysts: China Likely to Support New Sanctions Against N. Korea
February 09, 2013 WASHINGTON — China is under pressure from the international community to support new sanctions against North Korea if Pyongyang follows through on its threat to carry out its third nuclear test.

Following North Korea's long-range rocket launch in December, China backed a new U.N. resolution (2087) that strengthened existing sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons program. The resolution, in part, urges U.N. members to monitor the activity of North Korean financial organizations within their countries. It also calls for travel bans on people suspected of involvement with the North's nuclear program. So how will China react if North Korea carries out another nuclear test?

The U.N. Security Council, of which China is a permanent member, is expected to respond quickly, possibly with new economic sanctions that expand asset freezes and travel bans on North Korean entities. China will likely support such measures, according to Asia-related analysts and scholars interviewed by VOA such as Hong Kong senior media educator Zhou Bing. "China can use a relatively soft punishment like freezing North Korea's bank accounts or canceling trade contracts," Zhou said. "However, China will still offer aid to North Korea. Because of humanitarian reasons and the long-time relations that have existed between the two, China still will offer food aid."

Pre-emptive measures

South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported that some North Korean companies and government-linked businesses are taking pre-emptive measures to avoid new Chinese financial sanctions. Yonhap quoted a source in Beijing with knowledge of the issue as saying there are signs North Korean entities are withdrawing money from their Chinese bank accounts, or changing their company names in China. A professor at China's Renmin University School of International Studies, Jin Canrong, told VOA that Sino-North Korean relations have deteriorated since Pyongyang's rocket launch in December, and that they could worsen further if the North carries out a nuclear test. He said Pyongyang's weak spot is the economy, and China's economic measures toward North Korea are very effective.

Soft economic sanctions

But an Asia analyst at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, James Schoff, told VOA that if China supports new sanctions, it will do so in a way that minimizes the economic impact on Pyongyang. "The more desperate you make North Korea and the weaker they become economically, you’ve pretty much cut off any hope, chance for them coming around, at least from a Chinese perspective," Schoff said. "So they’ll do it I think more politically or try to soften some of the hard edges on economic sanctions, but there’s a limit to what they can do.”

China is North Korea's top ally and trading partner and supplies the impoverished country with crucial economic and humanitarian assistance. China also is seen as one of the few nations able to influence Pyongyang. North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 and has carried out long-range rocket launches. The international community has condemned the rocket launches as disguised intercontinental ballistic missile tests. North Korea says it fired its rocket in December with the intention of putting a weather satellite into orbit.

Source

China and No. Korea about to be on the outs?...

Analyst: N. Korean Nuclear Test Could Worsen China Relations
February 08, 2013 — As the world waits to see if North Korea will follow through on threats to conduct a third nuclear test, VOA spoke with Professor Jin Canrong at China’s Renmin University’s School of International Studies about the state of relations between Beijing and Pyongyang. Professor Canrong says China’s relations with North Korea have deteriorated since Pyongyang's long-range rocket launch in December, and could further worsen should the North carry out its nuclear test.

Q: North Korea recently announced that it will carry on with nuclear tests, and that it will not negotiate on denuclearization. How do these pronouncements fit into China's position in regards to the Korean peninsula?

"These points that North Korea has made, that there won't be six party talks, that denuclearization is not up to negotiation, and that negotiation will only be on regional security are in contrast with China's position. So from the look of it, we can see that China and North Korea hold two very different positions."

Q: What impact would a third nuclear test have on China North-Korea relations?

"In view of technical and political consideration, North Korea will inevitably go ahead with the test. China opposes it, but still North Korea for its reasons will have to do it. That is why I think that [a test] will bring a big harm to the future of China relations with North Korea. I think that after the third test, China will take some sort of measure, but to what extent, we do not know at the moment. The reason why China would take some measure is that our positions are different, we sincerely want denuclearization in the peninsula, and also we are a member of the UN Security Council. We have passed the resolution number 2087, we have promised that if North Korea were to take actions against the resolution, a resolution that the Security Council calls an 'important resolution,' then as members we have to respond."

Q: How would China respond to a third nuclear test by North Korea?

"The response can include different nature of actions, but I think that it would be economic first, then political, then military. China at the moment thinks that military measures are not good, so it would not take military action. But it might respond by economic and political means. For example have cold diplomatic relations, reduce relations to a lower rank, decrease trade and economic cooperation. . . North Korea's weak spot now is the economy and China's economic measures towards North Korea have very strong effect. So I believe that in the event of a third nuclear test China would take some action on the economic front."

Q: How have relations between China and North Korea changed in the past few months?