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Thread: Bleak future for US-China relations

  1. Default Bleak future for US-China relations

    Hillary Clinton was rubbing salt into the wound when she told Chinese President Hu Jintao on Friday (May 4) that relations between their two countries were the strongest they had ever been, after the US Embassy took part in a covert operation to help a blind activist to escape. The Wang Lijun incident in Chongqing has undoubtedly provided the idea and inspiration for the US administration and Chinese dissidents to use their "safest place" in Beijing to launch the covert operation in China.

    Nowadays Chinese citizens are free to travel anywhere in the world. Many Chinese students have gone to Europe, the US, Japan, Russia and other countries to study. The majority of them are top students in overseas universities with no dearth of jobs waiting for them in top international companies even before their graduation. They do not need to seek political asylum overseas as their talents are demanded everywhere. The whole world has become their land of opportunity.

    However, there are still a great number of Chinese who are poor, uneducated or not so well-educated. Seeing a growing number of their countrymen travelling around in limousines and living in high-rise condominiums, they would certainly wish to join the ranks of the rich and famous in China.

    Unfortunately, the name for the United States in Chinese means "The Beautiful Country" as compared to the derogatory Japanese name which means "The Rice Country". To most Chinese who have little knowledge of America, particularly its early history of genocide against the Native Americans, the US is always "The Beautiful Country" or a sort of "Paradise on Earth" or the land of opportunity where they can pursue the (dying?) American Dream.

    In a speech at Beijing Foreign Studies University in September, US Ambassador Gary Locke told students of the rise of his family’s fortunes over the last 110 years in the US. According to him, his grandfather’s generation worked as coolies and now he is counselor to the US President.

    The following are excerpts from his speech:

    (Begin excerpts)
    I’ve sometimes asked myself:

    How did the Locke family go in just two generations from living in a small rural village in China to the governor’s mansion?

    The answer is American openness – building and sustaining an open economy and an open society.

    America was open to my grandfather and millions of other immigrants like him, coming to its shores to pursue a better life.

    America was open to my father staking his small claim to the American dream, a small grocery store that he and my mother worked in seven days a week, 365 days a year to support our family.

    And the America I was raised in was open to new ideas, where I was allowed to think what I wanted to think and say what I wanted to say…to join organizations that could question or challenge American government policy.

    Our family’s story is the story of America.

    Tens of millions of American families have travelled the same path as ours. They’ve found success through their own hard work and initiative, but it was only possible because:

    •they lived in an open, vibrant society that rewarded individual initiative;

    •allowed dissent and disagreement;

    •and enabled anyone, anywhere to fully participate in our economy. (End excerpts)

    Our most successful Chinese descendant in America, however, had forgotten to mention the Chinese Exclusion Act which was passed in 1882, and was a climax to more than thirty years of progressive racism.

    He had also forgotten to mention that until 2001, US laws against ethnic-Chinese immigration and property ownership (Alien Land Acts) were still intact in such states as Wyoming.

    When Gary Locke was nominated US Ambassador to China, I could already sense something would go terribly wrong on the way.

    With the election of the first Black American President, many Chinese in China also hope an American Chinese could be elected US President one day. In my opinion, such a dream could only come true at least a few centuries later, given the hostile and suspicious attitude of the US Congress towards China, not to mention other factors such as America's deep-seated racism and the big power rivalry between the US and China.

    In the current so-called Chen Guangcheng affair, photos of the US Ambassador and other US diplomats brazenly accompanying Chen were beamed around the world. In unusual scenes on Capitol Hill, Chen phoned a congressional hearing from his hospital bed in Beijing asking to go to the US and speak to Hillary Clinton. Such a brazen interference in the internal affairs of China will not be the last. There will be a long queue of Chinese asylum seekers claiming to be activists, dissidents or separatists, just for the sake of pursuing their (dying?) American Dream.

    During his visit to China in 1972, Nixon was reportedly to have asked Mao to let the Chinese travel to the US. Mao's answer was: "How many Chinese you want? We can supply you with whatever quantity you require." If there is a long queue of poor and uneducated Chinese seeking asylum in the US, China should take the opportunity to flood the US with Chinese fortune seekers.

    Unfortunately for China, the US could be so emboldened by the Chen Guangcheng affair that it would conduct many more such covert operations in China in the future. If such an incident is repeated by the US Embassy, I suggest the Chinese government should recall its ambassador from Washington from 6 months to one year, and demand the US to do likewise with its ambassador in Beijing. Alternatively, China could demand the US to change its ambassador in Beijing every time such an incident happens. Of course, the US would retaliate by demanding China to do likewise with its ambassador in Washington.

    If such an incident is repeated in a US consulate in China, I suggest China should ask the US to close its consulate. Of course, the US would retaliate by asking China to close one of its consulates in the US.

    In view of the new dimension in US-China relations, I am encouraged to make an "intelligent guess" or "prediction" that the future of the relations between the two powers is very bleak within the next 50 years.

    US embassy car picked up activist after chase

    Dissident Chen Guangcheng 'chased by undercover Chinese agents' as he fled to US Embassy

    Chen Guangcheng makes dramatic phone call to congress asking to meet Hillary Clinton

    Clinton tells Hu that China-U.S. ties strong

    Dissident to stay in China, Beijing denounces US meddling

    United States of America in Chinese / Japanese...

    Ambassador Gary Locke Addresses Students and Faculty of Beijing Foreign Studies University

    The Chinese Exclusion Act: A Black Legacy

    Anti-Chinese USA—Racism & Discrimination from the Onset

    Racism in the United States

    Crime of Genocide Against Native Americans
    Last edited by reedak; May 05 2012 at 07:36 AM.
    "The Palestinian/Israeli issue (more accurately, the conflict between Jews and Muslims) could never be resolved permanently." -- reedak

  2. Likes Albert Di Salvo, waltky liked this post
  3. Default

    A security official, an aide to a vice minister in China's security ministry, was arrested and detained early this year on allegations that he had passed information to the US for several years on China's overseas espionage activities, said three sources, who all have direct knowledge of the matter.

    The aide had been recruited by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and provided "political, economic and strategic intelligence", one source said, though it was unclear what level of information he had access to, or whether overseas Chinese spies were compromised by the intelligence he handed over.

    This is one of the many incidents that reinforces my view or "prediction" of the bleak US-China relations within the next 50 years.

    At the annual Asia—Pacific security summit, dubbed the Shangri—La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday June 2, US Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta, said the US is all for a "win—win" solution, as far as ties with China are concerned.

    He’s confident that close US—China ties will be good for the peace, stability and security of the Asia—Pacific region.

    He added the key strategy is to strengthen military—to—military contacts. These, he said, will bring about greater transparency between the two countries.

    The US defence chief is really fair in talking about a "win—win" solution -- just like a child talking about sharing an apple with another boy. Perhaps he will talk about a "win—win" war with China next time.

    US—China ties are getting closer indeed. It's so close that a Chinese security official could provide "political, economic and strategic intelligence" to the US.

    EXCLUSIVE - China arrests security official on suspicion of U.S. spying - sources

    US to increase military presence in Asia—Pacific
    "The Palestinian/Israeli issue (more accurately, the conflict between Jews and Muslims) could never be resolved permanently." -- reedak

  4. Default

    Remember when Jimmy Carter, negotiating with China to enter World Trade Organisation, insisted on Chinese right to emigrate..?
    Deng Xiaoping's reply- "Sure. how many do you want? 40 million? 50 million?"

  5. Default

    Well, I think the two countries depend on each other quite strongly. Statistics about US investment in China show that US investment has consistently risen over the last 20 years and I think this will continue.

  6. Cool

    Granny says, "Looks like the focus is changing from the U.S. to sharing the focus with China...

    Viewpoint: China and the world
    8 November 2012 - The central challenge for China and its relations with the wider world will be managing its own inexorable rise, writes former Australian Prime Minister and China expert Kevin Rudd as part of a series of features on challenges for China's new leadership.
    Xi Jinping - the man most likely to become China's new president - appears to be a man very comfortable with the mantle of leadership. He will take the helm at a time when China is emerging as the world's largest economy. This will be the first time since George III that a non-English speaking, non-Western, non-democratic state will dominate the global economic order.

    Xi can have confidence in his family background, given the contribution of his father Xi Zhongxun to the Chinese revolution and to subsequent economic development. He has served in the Chinese military. He is confident of his economic credentials - holding senior positions in provincial administrations has given him the experience to manage the demands of economic development. And over the last five years Xi has spent a lot of time deepening his understanding of international matters, most particularly China's relationship with the United States. He is the sort of leader the US leadership can do business with as he seeks to continue China's modernisation while maintaining strategic stability in East Asia.

    East Asian nationalism

    What we know from economic history is that political power invariably flows from economic power and, over time, foreign and security policy power follow suit. But the core challenge for China and the rest of the world will be managing the rise of China while maintaining and strengthening the current international rules-based order that has underpinned global strategic stability and economic growth since World War II.

    The current order has served China well over the last 30 years during its reform and modernisation period. It is in China's interests that this order continue into the future notwithstanding the fact that it was not an order constructed with Chinese participation but rather by victorious Western powers after the fall of Berlin.

    More http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20217333
    See also:

    As China's leadership changes, issues with the U.S remain
    November 8th, 2012 - As President Barack Obama prepares for a second term in the White House, his administration is keeping an eye on another leadership transition now underway on the other side of the world in China. The ramifications will surely to have a global impact.
    With Obama's re-election, any notion that complexity of the relationship between the world's two largest economies could somehow change overnight has been quickly dispelled. Chinese state media issued its own view of the American election on Wednesday, saying Obama's re-election offered an opportunity to improve ties after a first term that many senior Chinese officials viewed as saying things one way then in many ways acting differently.

    Regardless of the sentiment, China watchers say Obama's re-election, while not greeted with elation in Beijing, still provides some element of predictability going forward. There was perhaps greater concern if Mitt Romney had won, given how the Republican presidential candidate had turned China into the ultimate foreign policy bogeyman in the presidential campaign. Chinese officials made clear that any attempt to label their country a currency manipulator, as Romney pledged he would do his first day in office, would complicate the bilateral relationship even further. "There is certainly an exhale with regard to continuity, in that this is the devil that they know," Christopher Johnson, a former longtime China analyst at the CIA told CNN, regarding Chinese reaction to the election. "I would say they are sanguine, but not necessarily energetic or optimistic about the result."

    Cheng Li, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, added that as Obama has "by and large" welcomed the rise of China on the global stage, the relationship between the two countries has been able to withstand periodic episodes of tension. Vice President Xi Jinping, who is widely expected to become the head of the ruling Communist party at the end of the current party congress, also is expected to become president of China in March of next year. He met President Obama during a visit to the United States last year, and toured the country with Vice President Joe Biden, with whom he is said to have a good relationship.

    Personal chemistry aside, the issues and challenges facing the administration in its engagement with China are long and daunting. They include a gargantuan trade deficit, Chinese cyberespionage and theft of U.S. intellectual property, not to mention ever-increasing Chinese military expenditures. But the relationship has become increasingly interdependent in today's globalized economy, and neither country is really in a position to let the relationship drift too far. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell recently referred to the bilateral relationship as the "most consequential" of the next decade.


  7. Question

    New generation of leaders and new group heads up the military...

    The new generals in charge of China's guns
    13 November 2012 - It is difficult to see what is going on in the upper echelons of China's military
    As China's ruling Communist Party prepares to hand power to a new generation of leaders, the BBC Beijing Bureau explains why changes at the top of the armed forces are also being closely watched. China is ushering in a new generation of political leaders this week, as Communist Party leader Hu Jintao hands over power to successor Xi Jinping. At the same time, a new group will take over the armed forces.

    Amid a wave of retirements, at least seven new members will join China's 11-member Central Military Commission (CMC), which oversees its armed forces - including the world's largest standing army. The new generals will assume power at a particularly sensitive time for the Chinese military. China's armed forces swear allegiance to the party rather than the country, and the CMC cannot take unilateral military action.

    But the commission's generals wield power by whispering their opinions in the ear of the Chinese leadership. "Influence from CMC members will be a major factor in determining whether there is peace or conflict in the region," explains Professor Denny Roy from the East-West Centre in Hawaii. "This matters now more than ever because there are so many regional issues that are on a knife-edge between stability and hostilities - the South China Sea, the East China Sea, North-South Korea tensions, the future of Taiwan, and the possibility of incidents between US and Chinese naval and air forces."

    'A black box'

  8. Default

    America will always seek to stab China in the back. The Chinese should never trust the US. The US will always play a two faced game with the Han. China should always see opposition to America as its normal course of action. Nothing good will ever come from cooperation with America.

  9. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Albert Di Salvo View Post
    America will always seek to stab China in the back. The Chinese should never trust the US. The US will always play a two faced game with the Han. China should always see opposition to America as its normal course of action. Nothing good will ever come from cooperation with America.
    Uncle says "yes". But will granny and pimp say "yes" too?
    "The Palestinian/Israeli issue (more accurately, the conflict between Jews and Muslims) could never be resolved permanently." -- reedak

  10. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by reedak View Post
    Uncle says "yes". But will granny and pimp say "yes" too?
    China and conservative Americans have a common enemy. Only China is in a position to weaken our common enemy. I wish China the best in its struggle against the US.

  11. Icon15

    Will China Lay Claim To North America? ...

    DNA links Native Americans to China
    2013-01-23 Washington - Present-day Asians and Native Americans are descended from a group of people who were already in China 40 000 years ago, according to an analysis of fossil DNA published this week.
    The genetic analysis showed that the early modern humans in Beijing had already diverged genetically from the ancestors of modern-day Europeans. The researchers took nuclear and mitochondrial DNA from a leg bone found in the Tianyuan Cave in China in 2003. Using this, they reconstructed the genetic profile of the leg's owner, a person who lived at a very interesting time in the history of modern humans, the researchers said in a statement on Monday. "This individual lived during an important evolutionary transition when early modern humans, who shared certain features with earlier forms such as Neanderthals, were replacing Neanderthals and Denisovans, who later became extinct," said lead author Svante Paabo, of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology.

    The genetic analysis from the ancient bone showed similarities to genetic profiles from modern-day Asians and Native Americans, the researchers explained. But the analysis showed that the early modern human near Beijing had already diverged, genetically, from the ancestors of modern Europeans. In addition, the proportion of Neanderthal and Denisovan-DNA was no higher than that of modern-day humans in the region.

    Scientists had previously found fossils of people from Eurasia 40 000 to 50 000 years ago who looked like modern-day humans. But the researchers emphasised that the genetic relationships between these early modern humans and today's people had not yet been fleshed out. "More analyses of additional early modern humans across Eurasia will further refine our understanding of when and how modern humans spread across Europe and Asia," Paabo said.


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