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Old 02-29-2008, 05:26 PM
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Default Good news: China goods about to get more costly

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...670255,00.html

Permit me a small bit of "I told you so."

This is being framed as a bad thing: China's cost of living is rising rapidly, which means it's more costly to produce stuff there. So things here are going to get more expensive here, because so much of the production supporting our domestic consumption has been outsourced to China.

But this is *exactly* what I've been saying will happen for years. And it's a good thing.

Amid all the hand-wringing about "exporting jobs" -- with the concurrent suggestion that we should use high tariffs or something to stop it and keep those jobs here at home -- I pointed out that, absent trade barriers, the only way to avoid having to compete with low-priced labor is to do one of two things: outcompete them with productivity and quality, or raise their standard of living so they're no longer so low-priced.

This is the latter happening. So while it will make things more expensive, it also makes it less attractive to export jobs to China. Which is exactly what would happen if we went the protectionist route -- except this way doesn't involve government intervention.

Prices have been artificially low for the last 10 years -- with the price paid in exported jobs. Now the prices are coming back into balance, and the cost in jobs should lessen.
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Old 02-29-2008, 05:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raytri View Post
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...670255,00.html

Permit me a small bit of "I told you so."

This is being framed as a bad thing: China's cost of living is rising rapidly, which means it's more costly to produce stuff there. So things here are going to get more expensive here, because so much of the production supporting our domestic consumption has been outsourced to China.

But this is *exactly* what I've been saying will happen for years. And it's a good thing.

Amid all the hand-wringing about "exporting jobs" -- with the concurrent suggestion that we should use high tariffs or something to stop it and keep those jobs here at home -- I pointed out that, absent trade barriers, the only way to avoid having to compete with low-priced labor is to do one of two things: outcompete them with productivity and quality, or raise their standard of living so they're no longer so low-priced.

This is the latter happening. So while it will make things more expensive, it also makes it less attractive to export jobs to China. Which is exactly what would happen if we went the protectionist route -- except this way doesn't involve government intervention.

Prices have been artificially low for the last 10 years -- with the price paid in exported jobs. Now the prices are coming back into balance, and the cost in jobs should lessen.
Interesting, what do you think this will do to Chinese markets and industry? Will they move on to other countries or settle into conformists of the US market? The industry is booming over there, they would have to find other consumers if we raise tariffs or buy less...
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Old 02-29-2008, 05:45 PM
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Interesting, what do you think this will do to Chinese markets and industry? Will they move on to other countries or settle into conformists of the US market? The industry is booming over there, they would have to find other consumers if we raise tariffs or buy less...
I'm sure in the short term manufacturers will seek other low-cost labor markets. But the same effect comes into play there, too. Plus there's a limited number of places that can supply the needed combination of a functioning government, stable society, educated workforce and low wages.

If you mean what will Chinese companies do, I'm sure they'll seek other outlets for their goods. But being more expensive will make that harder.
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Old 02-29-2008, 05:48 PM
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If you mean what will Chinese companies do, I'm sure they'll seek other outlets for their goods. But being more expensive will make that harder.
I would like to know who is the most viable consumer in the far east, and who plays nice with China in economics closer to home. Where would the new 'outlets' be - Europe you think?
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Old 02-29-2008, 05:54 PM
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Maybe that consumer is China and its developing market? Which is a very bad thing for the US.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/art...i?artid=153663
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Old 02-29-2008, 06:26 PM
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How is this a good thing?
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Old 02-29-2008, 06:41 PM
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How is this a good thing?
If you don't like domestic jobs being shipped overseas, this is a good thing.
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Old 02-29-2008, 06:48 PM
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Hmm, a sinking dollar might be good for American exports. Oh wait, American...exports...*gets dizzy*.

More expensive imports means more expensive...everything.

How many products are made in America besides crack?...*hears crickets chirping*....i'll wait....
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Old 02-29-2008, 06:55 PM
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If you don't like domestic jobs being shipped overseas, this is a good thing.
That manufacturing jobs that would leave the US for the PRC was inevitable, after the chinese there decided to stop shooting themselves in the foot with socialism. What the US should already have been doing for about 15 years is implement rational policies in light of these realities - notably, using the fact that many people want to immigrate here to have an immigration policy that favors the skilled, the accomplished, and the high IQ, to create new imaginative products so that we can once again succeed in the world market. Instead, we have become the dumping ground for mexico's poor, so that a few lawbreaking companies can make profits, and the democrat party can get millions of more voters. Democrat leaders don't care if the ship is sinking, as long as they're the captain.
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Old 02-29-2008, 06:56 PM
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It's just on par for globalism. Our standard of living and theirs must meet in the middle somewhere eventually. It's an ugly process that most Americans don't want to experience.
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