Political Science is a complex and sophisticated academic studies in higher education. Researcher must understand well about the cultures, traditions, behaviours and the history of each country they would like to study on. Nevertheless, politics is a very powerful tool to manipulate and cause destruction to nations and countries. A good example are the downfall of Soviet Union, Communism and so forth.

Strategically, there are four super power countries with great military strength, namely, US, China, Russia and Euro(Nato). However, that isn't sufficient to enable one to be powerful but require the integration of the country's economic growth or in short, positive and steady GDP growth. As such, we can narrow down to US, China and European Union. Given the experience(history) and background of these economic and military regions, EU and China have better advantage in terms of their historical background. They belong to great strategists whereas US can be categorized under advanced technology war game. In reality, China is the most promising country to lead the next century and pose the greatest threats to US economically as most analysts believed. I will focus on the topic of APAC economic stability especially China and Taiwan.

Why is Taiwan so important to China and US? Strictly speaking, Taiwan is a good strategic location despite the westernized culture for both countries. Since Japan regime will not jeorpadize the country, Japanese will restrict its co-operation with US to certain extent. In addition, South Korea would not want to exasperate its counterpart, North Korea and China and that will restrict US military expansion in North-East Asia. Under such circumstances, Taiwan is the most appropriate strategic partner to work with as to restrain China from growing too fast. The Taiwan Government has strong commitment with US regime and will provide a military base to US to protect the country. A win-win situation occur between both countries at this point in time.

Why would China bother to integrate Taiwan into the mainland? First of all, China would not allow US to build its military base in Taiwan which is few hundred kilometer away from China economy hub. Secondly, China would not allow US to use Taiwan as a media of communication to disrupt its nations via newspaper or media broadcasting. Third, this might portray a wrong signal to other states such as Tibet and SinKiang where they have long for independence. Eventually, all these would complicate the matter further and cause instability to China and the region. The economy of APAC would be dragged and terrorism will rise due to chaotic state. The impact is as high as the tension between Pakistan and India or North Korea and South Korea and Japan.

So, what is the ideal resolution to rest the matter? In my opinion, peaceful negotiation is the only way to sort out everything and Taiwan must return to mainland but of course, with conditions that can be accepted by both regimes. Nonetheless, time is a factor that determine whether war would have occurred in the cross straits. In addition, the increased competition in military build-up would also determine the time of war. China will not attack Taiwan by 2008 if Taiwan remains its status quo. However, year after 2010, even if Taiwan remains its status quo, China may launch an attack to cease the tension for the benefits of long term strategic economic growth.

Why China will not fight with Taiwan if status quo remained at the moment? To my analysis, given the current military strength of China, winning the war is a matter of time but this is considered short-term plan. China needs to consider the aftermath where the paralysis of Taiwan economy will require enormous amount of money to stabilize the situation. Subsequently, feeding the people of Taiwan also require another enormous amount of money. However, these have not included the aftermath within China itself such as Fujian, Shanghai and etc. If the recovery and rebuilding exercise take longer, the entire China may lead to chaotic state. Again, Tibet and SinKiang may riot and declare independence. The ongoing problems will not rest easily until the economy of China return to normal. How certain would China launch an attack after 2010? This is possible if China has successfully reserved enough of capital to sustain the war and the aftermath.

A good strategist will not rush for war if he is uncertain about the winning. Resource is extremely crucial to the success of war. China might not have sufficient resources currently and the impact is high if US is involved. Crude oil reserves is the most crucial point and China needs to plan for the shortage for the next 20 years. As a result, building a long pipeline from China via Myammar to Middle East can be a backup resource for China to sustain the crude oil. During the war, sea transportation will be in critical alert and maybe blocked by US to cut the supply. Alternative solution is vital for China to take into consideration. The construction of the crude oil pipeline may take more than 8 years. Hence, my conjecture that China may attack after 2010 is highly possible.

A peaceful reunification is utmost important to ASIAN countries particularly Singapore. Singapore will be put into awkward position if the war occur where they have established good links and relationship with China, US and Taiwan. And the impact is high due to extensive investment in these countries. Let's pray for a peaceful reunification.

So you're saying that China is still necessarily reliant on Middle East oil despte it's command of oil interests in (African) Sudan?

By advocating reunification, you're also saying that the people shouldn't enjoy tthe same power to govern themselves as each of our states and localities do. How Soviet of you.

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I shall continue to be an impossible person as long as those who are now possible remain possible.
Hypercrites

China's military strength has been greatly exaggerated. They have no hope of defeating us in a conventional war (Source - www.FAS.org). China knows that the Taiwan Relations Act could very well be interpreted to mean that we would support Taiwan against China if they (Taiwan) were invaded.

Taiwan's military alone might be sufficient to thwart an attack...combined with ours, the PRC has zero chance of invading them. And they know it.

China does not have the trnasports necessary to leverage it's numerical superiority. And even if it did, it has no way to defend them. The PRC's technology is about 30 years behind ours, and 15 or 20 years behind Taiwan's.

A peaceful re-unification will not be possible IMO until the PRC has been assimilated into a democracy. That will probably take several more decades at least (although I believe it will happen...for economic reasons if nothing else).

If I was religious, I would rather pray that democracy comes to China, just like it has to Taiwan.

China isn't a superpower, as it stands right now china would have a difficult time defeating taiwan even if they wanted to.

So, what you mean is US will defend Taiwan even if Taiwan seek for independence? Unlikely. US has learnt the lesson from Iraq war. China is not a small country and given the thought of nuclear weapons. As a result, the world will suffer if war occur. Peaceful reunification is still the best way.

Don't forget that during the Vietnam and Korean war, China was 30 years behind US and yet US failed to defend. Do not under estimate China capability and be more objective. You may not get the real truth and do not be deceived by what you see now. Eg. China has managed to sent astronaut to outer space but what has Taiwan done for the past 20 years?

Peaceful reunification proposal :-

In order to have peaceful reunification, China will require the co-operation from the regions. Japan, Korea, Australia and EU should emphasize the importance of ONE CHINA policy to Taiwan. Declaration of independence will only lead to economic instability and war, if necessary. Having said that, the situation may have a ripple effect that will lead to adverse effect on US, India, Pakistan and Middle East.

Nevertheless, no country should render military help to Taiwan as to restrain them from moving into independence. What Taiwan can do to avoid the crisis is to initiate a peaceful negotiation with China and improve the bilateral ties. I believe that the "One China Two Systems" is highly possible and can be extended to 100 years instead of 50 years unchanged. This will foster Taiwan and China economic integration. Do spare a thought for China as times will change everything. Also, learn the mistake from Russia where too rush for democracy will lead to chaotic state. What will US be in the next 100 years? No one can tell....

Last but not least, media of Taiwan play an important role to foster the one China policy. Taiwan media should educate their nations of the seriousness of offensive independence. The people of Taiwan is rather naive and never thought of the consequences. Based on the history of China, perseverance and determination is the root of the country's success. Never underestimate China!

I am neutral to all comments but foster on world peace policy.

Happy Viewing!

Yup! China still relies on Middle East as a matter of fact. It is very expensive to build a pipeline from China to Africa. Not feasible at all. Also, sea transport remained the greatest risk to China.

We have to be realistic and accept the fact that people are limited to enjoying power to govern themselves. It is the same as corporate governance where laws, rules and regulation apply as long as the people remained as the corporate staff.

What if California and Florida states declare independence and the people believe that they can govern themselves? Should US allow such democracy happen? Nevertheless, every country has their own way of governing and peace is utmost important.

Taiwan is already independant, it's just that those addled old commies that run china are too dense to know it.

The TWA could be interpreted to say that, yes. The US employs a deliberate policy of strategic ambiguity where Taiwan is concerned. It is not in US interests for Taiwan to openly declare independence, and it is not in US interests to allow the PRC to invade Taiwan. Stragetic Ambiguity ensures that neither state does anything stupid.

Taiwan of course deserves full independence. But that may not be possible until China's economic assimilation is complete. Which may be a long long time.

Yes. We learned that we can defy the UN and get away with it.

The current PRC leadership will not risk nuclear annihilation simply to get Taiwan. They know we could obliterate them. And they are dependant on us for trade as well. Any confrontation would remain conventional, so long as we did not invade the mainland IMO.

I dont see how that is possible until China is democratized.

Because we tied our own hands. And that was a long long time ago. Things change.

Also dont forget that China's military technology was augmented by the Soviet Union at that time. The Soviets no longer exist.

I say the same thing to liberals, but replace "underestimate" with "overestimate". The PRC is a paper tiger militarily. The only real threat they pose is with their limited number of nukes, which they will never use unless their mainland is invaded.

You think space travel is beyond Taiwan's technology? What is Taiwan's GNP in relation to that of the PRC?

The fact that it took China this long to finally send up an astronaught, says all that needs to be said.

Translation: They have to agree that the PRC is the boss of Taiwan.

That wont happen. What would the PRC be giving up?

Negotiation is irrelevant. It has already been tried. The PRC is unwilling to accept any outcome that does not place Taiwan as subordinate to itself.

I spare no thoughts for oppressive governments. They deserve only to be destroyed and replaced with democracies. They are inherently evil.

The PRC does not really represent the will of the Chinese masses; only the will of the government in control of them.

There is a great deal of dialogue in Taiwan every election regarding China. You see, unlike China, Taiwan actually has a free media. People are allowed to question their leaders there.

I have to agree. I really dont think China qualifies as a superpower. Several European nations probably eclipse them militarily. If we back Taiwan, even in a purely support role, I dont see how the PRC has any chance of defeating them.

China is a place I go often, and they are no threat to anyone. Soon enough the old coots that feebly run the place will all be dead and burning, and the country will go democratic.

There is a faction in the US trying to start an arms race with China. It will likely succeed, and will be great for the US, but very bad for China.

China's space program was taken from the soviets.

The PRC does have some cool technology (the Tank-based laser defense system comes to mind), but it is mostly novelty stuff. Nothing that would have any real impact in a conventional war.

Their military was far more dangerous in the 1960s than it is now. That is why VietNam is an inaccurate comparison. At that time they were using state-of-the-art fighters. Today's china is not.