Thread: Our Economy

For those bored with the carbon tax kerfuffle, this is interesting reading...and I didnt even
talk to Enrico about it.....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austra...070823189.html

Dont forget to read the follow ons...."More from CNBC...
Australia heading for mother of all hard landings...."

Originally Posted by mister magoo

For those bored with the carbon tax kerfuffle, this is interesting reading...and I didnt even
talk to Enrico about it.....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austra...070823189.html

Dont forget to read the follow ons...."More from CNBC...
Australia heading for mother of all hard landings...."

God...Magoo. I thought you said this would have nothing to do with the carbon debate.

With the line I have been taking, this would only add to it.

Originally Posted by garry17

God...Magoo. I thought you said this would have nothing to do with the carbon debate.

With the line I have been taking, this would only add to it.

Aaaah well, I've done it again................

Funny you should bring this up as I have to fly to China in August to discuss massive slow down in retail imports in the next six months.

The housing market some say is in decline, I disagree, I believe it has stagnated to barely a hartbeat, but there are areas that have shown significant growth over the past six months that have breathed a little life into the old beast. Having said this the housing market and retail sector are intrinsically linked and if the housing market slows the retail market hits the wall. This is what we have seen in the last 18 months.

The whole world did not really learn anything from the GFC, and all we really did was patch the bubble we had burst. Having said this we have seen credit card debt here decline significantly, and also outsourced finance (eg: GE, HSBC, etc.) decline to detrimental levels( for these companies), that means Aussies are being more careful with their spending. The issue is the housing market and the incredible debt ratio in our mortgages. Once upon a time a house mortgage would only be around 30 % of a household net income, now we see in some circumstances mortgages of up to 60 % of household net income( disastrous). Problem here is that the housing market hasnt grown, it has remained stable and no significant increases have been gained in terms of housing value. In some cases it has declined, and people are paying off homes that are not worth what they first paid for them. So selling to recoup debt will still leave them in debt, albeit not as deep. Who wants to lose on a deal ?

Thing to remember here is this issue was already current before the carbon tax implementation. Will the CT help ? I don't know, I doubt it. Will it make it worse, I don't know. What I do know is that China has warned of a slowdown and it may be bigger than they thought, but this idiot treasurer has his hands over his ears saying, " don't let it be true, don't let it be true".

Well Wayney POO it is true, so best you get your bum into gear and start to plan for a downturn, because the business sector already is.

Perhaps we can have an economic downturn tax !

Originally Posted by slipperyfish

Funny you should bring this up as I have to fly to China in August to discuss massive slow down in retail imports in the next six months.

The housing market some say is in decline, I disagree, I believe it has stagnated to barely a hartbeat, but there are areas that have shown significant growth over the past six months that have breathed a little life into the old beast. Having said this the housing market and retail sector are intrinsically linked and if the housing market slows the retail market hits the wall. This is what we have seen in the last 18 months.

The whole world did not really learn anything from the GFC, and all we really did was patch the bubble we had burst. Having said this we have seen credit card debt here decline significantly, and also outsourced finance (eg: GE, HSBC, etc.) decline to detrimental levels( for these companies), that means Aussies are being more careful with their spending. The issue is the housing market and the incredible debt ratio in our mortgages. Once upon a time a house mortgage would only be around 30 % of a household net income, now we see in some circumstances mortgages of up to 60 % of household net income( disastrous). Problem here is that the housing market hasnt grown, it has remained stable and no significant increases have been gained in terms of housing value. In some cases it has declined, and people are paying off homes that are not worth what they first paid for them. So selling to recoup debt will still leave them in debt, albeit not as deep. Who wants to lose on a deal ?

Thing to remember here is this issue was already current before the carbon tax implementation. Will the CT help ? I don't know, I doubt it. Will it make it worse, I don't know. What I do know is that China has warned of a slowdown and it may be bigger than they thought, but this idiot treasurer has his hands over his ears saying, " don't let it be true, don't let it be true".

Well Wayney POO it is true, so best you get your bum into gear and start to plan for a downturn, because the business sector already is.

Perhaps we can have an economic downturn tax !

Enjoy your trip, player....bring back some beef chow mein so I can share it with my favourite werewolf...!!!

Re the economy, I have a Doctor friend, who knows someone who is a consultant to....better not say the name...
He states that his research and advice suggests that the entire eastern seaboard of Australias property
market is predicted to drop by as much as 40% by the end of 2013...

Make of this what you will....Im not bullsh1tt1ng....its no time for the fainthearted...and remember...

If you want to mark time, make sure youre not standing in quicksand......

Originally Posted by garry17

God...Magoo. I thought you said this would have nothing to do with the carbon debate.

With the line I have been taking, this would only add to it.

Gary, with the line you have been taking the bloody chooks won't lay because of the so called carbon tax

Originally Posted by slipperyfish

Funny you should bring this up as I have to fly to China in August to discuss massive slow down in retail imports in the next six months.

The housing market some say is in decline, I disagree, I believe it has stagnated to barely a hartbeat, but there are areas that have shown significant growth over the past six months that have breathed a little life into the old beast. Having said this the housing market and retail sector are intrinsically linked and if the housing market slows the retail market hits the wall. This is what we have seen in the last 18 months.

The whole world did not really learn anything from the GFC, and all we really did was patch the bubble we had burst. Having said this we have seen credit card debt here decline significantly, and also outsourced finance (eg: GE, HSBC, etc.) decline to detrimental levels( for these companies), that means Aussies are being more careful with their spending. The issue is the housing market and the incredible debt ratio in our mortgages. Once upon a time a house mortgage would only be around 30 % of a household net income, now we see in some circumstances mortgages of up to 60 % of household net income( disastrous). Problem here is that the housing market hasnt grown, it has remained stable and no significant increases have been gained in terms of housing value. In some cases it has declined, and people are paying off homes that are not worth what they first paid for them. So selling to recoup debt will still leave them in debt, albeit not as deep. Who wants to lose on a deal ?

Thing to remember here is this issue was already current before the carbon tax implementation. Will the CT help ? I don't know, I doubt it. Will it make it worse, I don't know. What I do know is that China has warned of a slowdown and it may be bigger than they thought, but this idiot treasurer has his hands over his ears saying, " don't let it be true, don't let it be true".

Well Wayney POO it is true, so best you get your bum into gear and start to plan for a downturn, because the business sector already is.

Perhaps we can have an economic downturn tax !

Agree with most of what you say, I personally think it will be much worse then predicted and nothing what so ever to do with the CTS, more to do with the world has been running on monopoly money for the past 15 to 20 years. I sold up my property years ago except for some rural acres on which I could live pretty much self sufficiently if I need to and no, no bunker, no beans, but solar power yes.

I see the biggest recession we have ever had within 10 to 15 years.

DV I don't think it far around the corner. Most business people I deal with are and have been taking measures to soften the impact. You are right, it really agent got a lot to do with the CT, as the figures were being fudged long before the last election. I really don't think the media helps with its doom and gloom reports, and the fact we have nothing in deserve to dole out decent stimulus this time I think this downturn is really going to hurt a lot of people. The last one didn't effect low income as much as middle to high income as it was share based and most low income barely have enough money for necessities let alone shares. This time it will be across the board.

You are lucky to lose dependencies and live simply, a good forcast from you. I also am in that position, on the back of a lot of hard work and long hours. I however rely for work in areas that will be hard hit and as we speak I am working reports and stats to try and ascertain the global effects on our retail and property industries.

Here's hoping the globe gets its act together and soon. To coin a well known phrase, unfortunately " a recession we have to have".

Originally Posted by mister magoo

For those bored with the carbon tax kerfuffle, this is interesting reading...and I didnt even
talk to Enrico about it.....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austra...070823189.html

Dont forget to read the follow ons...."More from CNBC...
Australia heading for mother of all hard landings...."

We can't let little Johhny get away scot free on this one. His open slather, dog eat dog policies, which included negative gearing had something to do with the property bubble. It would eventually be exposed for what it was, which was just a short term greedy splurge.

Originally Posted by mister magoo

Enjoy your trip, player....bring back some beef chow mein so I can share it with my favourite werewolf...!!!

Re the economy, I have a Doctor friend, who knows someone who is a consultant to....better not say the name...
He states that his research and advice suggests that the entire eastern seaboard of Australias property
market is predicted to drop by as much as 40% by the end of 2013...

Make of this what you will....Im not bullsh1tt1ng....its no time for the fainthearted...and remember...

If you want to mark time, make sure youre not standing in quicksand......

Thanks, I don't generally eat much over their. Only there for four days, and that's long enough. 12 + hour days locked in a box makes you miss the space of home. Not much private time in china.

Look not sure we will see a drop of that level, however I do believe it has probably blown out about that. Then again if it is as bad as the doomsayers say it may be a forced one. It will be noticeable and many will feel it. Rents will be the big mover, as landlords try to soften the loss.

No government could really be blamed for the property bubble, more so the banks for irresponsible money lending. In their grab for market share debt and greater share prices plus Aussies dream of bricks and mortar at any cost we have what we have.....a problem with the only solution being many foreclosures. The banks will hurt from this too, as they don't want to be burdened with property that has no yeild and a value of less than they are owed. The USA is a good example, and as we have seen many financial institutions haven't been able to recover.

From my point of view it is our retail sector that will suffer greatest as many chains have multiplied exponentially during good times. I hear all the socialists yelling, TOO BAD, SO SAD. Well it will be sad, as hundreds of thousands are employed in this sector, most low income, and those are the jobs that are under threat.

I hope things don't go too pear shaped, and recovery is swift.

But if Swan does not start to listen, we will have no chance of swift implementation of policy to lessen the blow. It is no time for false trumpet blowing and smug little smirks. Put things in place now, if we don't need them that's great, but if we do, we will be ready.