Israel`s war in Lebanon, like America`s in Iraq, has undergone some changes in its rationale.

First it was to secure the release of two Israeli servicemen.

Then it was to destroy Hizbollah and its infrastructure.

Now it`s to secure a Hizbollah free `buffer zone`.

One doesn`t need a crystal ball to see the futility of trying to achieve these goals through war. Despite a month of unfettered aggresion in Gaza and Lebanon the soldiers have not been rescued. Hizbollah have not been destroyed (they have lost about 50 fighters). With the Lebanese death toll approaching one thousand Hizbollah have never been more popular among the Lebanese, who are viewing their government`s inability to protect them as a failure of the democracy that the West was so proud of nuturing. Hizbollah has no `infrastructure` to speak of so Israel is resorting to destroying the runways at Beruit airport and the lighthouse. No international force is going to police any `buffer zone` if that means they will have to fight their way in nor is there any realistic prospect that they would be able to curtail Hizbollah`s attacks anyway ( if Israel cant stop the daily attacks with thousands of troops in South Lebanon with its attendant warships, artillery and airforce then what chance do the UN have?)

When Israel has tired of bombing Lebanon it will call to Washington for a ceasefire and Washington will have to beat a path to Damascus to obtain it. Most likely the Israeli soldiers will be subsequently exchanged for Hizbollah prisoners, a makeshift and ineffectual international force will move in and instability in the region assured for another generation.

Outlook for tomorrow - more of the same.

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Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.
Marx (G.)

Next thing you know Lebanon will become a democracy, wait a minute...that's been done.

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I've been informed....don't blame Bush, he's "not in control"
That must make him out of control

... that there's a very simple explanation for this little "war". It's giving um... certain people the opportunity to analyze Hezbollah military tactics (which by extension are those of Iran). Israel likely agreed to do this little "war" because it's a win-win for both them and the rest of the Western powers (or at least, those who choose to take Hezbollah and Iran seriously).

A "win -win"? Do you think so? I have the impression that Olmert stumbled into this war to prove his aggression credentials even though he is not a military man. Israel has been perceived as invincible in the past and now must get out of this thing saving face and appearing to have "won"- even if it means destroying an entire country! And who will pay to rebuild Lebanon, I wonder?

I was speaking strictly in military terms. Israel's military situation has changed dramatically in the past few years. The old guard is gone, and there's a new crowd of young inexperienced people who've never really done an integrated military operation. They're making quite a few mistakes, but they learn fast.

Israel tried the same exact buffer zone policies in Lebanon in the eighties and nineties before realizing they were a bust. They will follow that same arc here.

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Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
You step out of line, the man come and take you away

The biggest mistake of Barak was pulling the troops out of Lebanon in the year 2000, which allowed the Lebanese to build up so much weapons. I really hate him.

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"My education was dismal. I went to a series of schools for mentally disturbed teachers."
-Woody Allen

Well, looking at this just from a detached military standpoint, I can say that Israel is making quite a few mistakes. If she were really fighting for her life I daresay you'd see her behaving differently. Like, take today for instance - rockets launched from Qana hit Haifa. Qana? Why isn't Israel on the ground there? They think they can win this thing from the air? Everyone knows it's twice as hard to keep territory as it is to win it in the first place, but the hit-and-run mentality seems to align with an amazingly foolhardy view of the enemy and its intentions.

But having said that, I agree that this is a foolish war. It's going to be very costly for everyone concerned. And it's not going to resolve anything.

And having said that, I still think the only angle that makes sense on this thing is to look at it in terms of "military preparedness". Israel's specifically, but also that of the US and its allies. Cyberspace is carrying some interesting information today. We're hearing from people we never heard from before.

I'll shut up now, and just listen for a while.

I'm confused.
I am a Righty, but I need clarification:


Please tell me which war was not foolish?

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O'TEDDY BIN-SWIMIN

...possibly...The American War of Independance?

__________________
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.
Marx (G.)