Things seem to be going pretty well in Lebanon, so I thought I'd post this update.

Yesterday Israel lifted its air blockade of Lebanon. Today, it lifted its naval blockade.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060908/..._mi_ea/mideast

It also announced it would withdraw completely from Lebanon within two weeks. And Israel signaled it would be willing to leave ownership of the dispute Chebaa Farms area up to the UN, and cede it to Lebanon if the UN says so.

That territorial dispute is the main obstacle to a permanent peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, so Olmert's suggestion has fairly large implications.

On the downside, the last time the UN looked into the matter it said the Farms didn't belong to Lebanon -- a ruling Lebanon rejected (it doesn't belong to Israel, either; the UN decision was based on the conclusion that it was originally part of Syria, same as the rest of the adjacent Golan Heights). Both sides would have to agree to abide by the UN's decision for this to work.

More pragmatically, Israel might just cede the territory and be done with it. It's militarily useful territory -- the high ground looks down on Israel on one side and Syria/Lebanon on the other. But it's uninhabited, and a few square kilometers are not worth more than a permanent peace.

All of this leaves one major item unresolved -- the fate of the two Israeli soldiers whose capture sparked the recent fighting. Look for Israel to grudgingly agree to swap prisoners, like it did earlier with Hamas.

After that, we can get down to watching how the Lebanese Army, backed by UN peacekeepers, deal with Hezbollah.

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Man up.

How the Lebanese army will deal with Hezbollah? You're not serious, are you?

Well, according to a statement circulated amongst the Lebanese army, this is how they will "deal" with Hezbollah:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/stor...853722,00.html

An internal Lebanese army statement, circulated among forces in the past week, has called for troops to stand "alongside your resistance and your people who astonished the world with its steadfastness and destroyed the prestige of the so-called invincible army after it was defeated".

The Lebanese government is on record in their support of Hezbollah. They have no intention of removing, disarming, or weakening in any way Hezbollah. Hezbollah has obtained god-like status in Lebanon.

Ceasefire in Arabic means rearm.

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"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."
Winston Churchill

Yes. I'm not expecting them to disarm Hezbollah in a pitched battle or anything. I do expect them to keep Hezbollah from attacking Israel, openly fortifying areas, etc. And I want to see what role the UN troops settle into.

I'm sorry that doesn't fit in with your general bloodthirstiness.

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Man up.

No, it is Hezbollah who are the bloodthirsty ones. Did you read the last paragraph of the article I linked? Jihad declared against the US.

Please try and get this one irrefutable fact of life into your head:

If Islam disarmed, peace would exist in the Middle East. If Israel disarmed, Israel would cease to exist.

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"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."
Winston Churchill

I agree, in general. But that has jack-all to do with what's happening in Lebanon.

You, apparently, support continuous and endless fighting there.

I, on the other hand, see Lebanon asserting control over the south of the country for the first time in two decades; a beefed up UN peacekeeping force with a more robust mandate; western navies patrolling the coast and Lebanese Army units patrolling the border with Syria to interdict arms shipments to Hezbollah; Hezbollah's military strength muzzled. An end to rocket attacks on Israel.

Does Hezbollah still exist? Yes. Will Lebanon disarm them? No. Not immediately, perhaps not ever. But there are enough other changes going on that what we're seeing is not a mere ceasefire; it's changing the chessboard.

All without anyone else getting killed.

So yes, I think this is progress. And a better sort of progress than continued fighting would have produced. The fighting was a necessary precursor to the progress; force still plays a large role in Middle Eastern diplomacy. But knowing how to use force includes knowing when to *stop* using it.

Your "we'll stop fighting when all of our enemies are dead" approach is, frankly, unattainable -- and thus self-defeating.

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Man up.

When countries have as their stated goal to destroy, wipe off the map and murder each and every Israelite, but lack only the means to do so, what do you suppose they will do once they have the means? And you mean to tell me 15,000 UN Israel hating troops will somehow prevent them from obtaining the means?

These people are sub-human murderers. How do you negotiate with a people whose primary goal his your death? "We'll give you some land." "Thank you. Now I will kill you." "We'll give you some more land." "Thank you. Now I will kill you." "We won't attack you." "Thank you. Now I will kill you."

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"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."
Winston Churchill

Then please explain Egypt and Jordan. Or even Saudi Arabia and the Gulf sheikdoms, which whatever they might say are *doing* exactly zero to wipe out Israel.

You can't kill every Muslim in the Middle East. Even if you could, it would be an indefensible idea.

Right now, progress is being made without anyone getting killed. Be happy about that.

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Man up.

You misunderstood what I was saying--I was limiting the scope to only those Islamic states and organizations who have openly declared their goal of destroying Israel. Lebanon would be one such state.

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"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."
Winston Churchill

Future predictions aside, I think it's currently going better in Lebanon than many people had expected.

Peace is not the absence of war.

Again I say, ceasefire in Arabic means reload.

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"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."
Winston Churchill